This sounds like a warning?
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.....LOL hoop! Hey hope they come right for you m8........I really thought they might have got hit a bit harder today with this nonsense being pushed by the media (in fact I was hoping they were going to cos I wana buy back in!).......really "scratching-the-bucket" stuff I think?
[QUOTE=Dej;391706]More buyers accumulating at 49c, bait for the TA fish...eh?....I will hold off as long as I can if it does fall to 49...a have a manual stop to avoid getting duped by a shake out at 49c (although with the present depth this seems an unlikely action). I will watch for possible reversal of the TA indicators around the 50c mark.
The theoretical play is to buy at the bottom of trading ranges ...not a great reward and the risk seems high at the moment so this option doesn't thrill me at the moment... but what I love about investing is how rapidly situations can change and the exitement in being in and able to ride along with that change ..a bit like the excitement of surfing a wave (sigh...brings back memories of my younger days...Whale Bay :))
From a fundamental point of view, this company isn't any different when it was 64c. They just managed a capital raising exercise in the wrong fashion, which has resulted in the faithless profit taking (because they can - who blames them) which has driven the price lower, and lower. Now people are jumping ship as they have lost faith. I made a few phone calls today to reassure myself - but even then I have my doubts.
Milford is still holding. 2.2% in active growth fund, one of their biggest NZ holdings. They had 1.5ish% before the capital raising so even they took a hit, but they are holding. That has to be a sign in itself.
My point of view anyways. Hoop, went surfing this weekend at Whangamata, never been surfing there before but wasnt to bad! Choppy though, but still a wave or two. Get back on the board!
:)
..........From a fundamental point of view, this company isn't any different when it was 64c. They just managed a capital raising exercise in the wrong fashion, which has resulted in the faithless profit taking............
A cynic may say the share price should never have been up that high and was manipulated to 64c to facilitate a capital raising that allowed the founding fathers to realise some of their profits.
Disc. I acquired a substantial shareholding from the capital raising and am holding for the medium term.
I'm with Sparky on this one. I'm not concerned what happens in the next three weeks, it's completely irrelevant as there have been no announcements. I'm very confident that the profit update will set things straight, leaving those selling now with a red face as they sold their shares at a ~20% discount. Time will tell though!
I'm with moosie on this. Looks bad. I hold
Today was just noise
You young guys read the bit below .... if attention span a bit low the message is Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.
Instead of finding it in Talebs book and typing it out google found it for me
http://www.financialplanningsouthafr...trategies.html
Nassim Taleb, in his book, Fooled by Randomness, imagines a fictitious retired dentist who employs long term investment strategies and expects to earn investment returns of 15% over time on his portfolio, with an error rate (or “volatility”) of 10% a year.
From a statistical point of view, if one assumes a normal distribution for simplicity, it means that out of every 100 observations of investment performance we would expect that close to 68 of them would fall within a band of plus and minus 10% around the expected return of 15% (they would fall between 5% and 25% just over two-thirds of the time).
A 15% return with a 10% volatility per year translates into a 93% probability of success (a positive return) in any given year. Taleb points out, however, that the probability of success reduces as the time scale narrows.
For example, there would be a 67% probability of success with a one-month time frame, and only a 54% probability of success if the time frame is reduced to one day. This is common sense: in the very short term anything can happen. It takes time, or an increased number of observations, for the average long-term trend to emerge.
If the retired dentist monitored his long term investment portfolio every minute in an eight-hour day, he would on average have 241 pleasurable (positive return) observations against 239 unpleasurable (negative return) observations.
There is an old adage in the financial advice industry...
...an investor experiences the pain of a loss with twice the intensity of the pleasure of a gain!
This unfortunate dentist would probably end every day emotionally drained, stressed and uncertain about his investment strategy. The chances of a poor investment decision, based largely on emotion, are high.
If the dentist examines his long term investment portfolio every month (perhaps he gets a monthly valuation statement). As 67% of his months will be positive, he incurs only four unpleasurable observations, and eight pleasurable observations.
There is still a good chance of a poor decision - remember that it is possible that he could experience a few negative months in a row. It takes a strong investor not to panic in a situation like this.
If he could extend his time scale to one year (where the portfolio’s performance is assessed in an annual review with a financial advisor, for example) then the picture changes dramatically. He will in all likelihood experience only one unpleasant year out of every 20. The chances of making a bad investment decision, based on emotion, are now very low.
It is important to note that the overall investment returns are identical in the above examples (the same set of data has been used - it is just the time frames that have been changed).
Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.
Winner...a wise post for the young fellas...I think the dentist is showing periods of cognitive dissonance behaviour......and this behavour is commonly seen on ST (every day)...there was a good discussion about it on ST some years back but bugger if I can find it on ST search..
Following on from what Sparky posted:
"Kindred Agency and Total Media will be working in partnership with Channel 4 media and are spending close to £1m to reach their target audience across multiple platforms."
http://www.foodbev.com/news/dannii-m...k#.UQncZY5ptUQ
SSH just released, Milford have topped up to 6.76%, mainly in the Active Growth Fund. Certainly a vote of confidence given the recent SP activity.