Forecast vs Actual Normalised NPAT (FY2015): Iteration 1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Snoopy
Time to update my FY2015 earnings forecast, given today's news release from Contact.
1/ Take EBITDAF.
$525m
2/ Remove one off profit items.
$0m (nothing material declared)
3/ Remove Depreciation and Amortization
2x $101m = $202m (twice half year figure)
4/ Take off annual interest charge.
$77m (assume same as FY2014)
5/ Calculate tax payable at 28%
$69m
6/ Calculate NPAT (normalised estimate).
=$177m
From this the foreacst earnings per share are:
$177m / 733m = 24.1cps
An 11c interim dividend has already been paid. So it looks like the final dividend will be 13cps, down 2cps on last year.
1/ Take EBITDAF.
$525m (Check)
2/ Remove one off profit items.
$0m (nothing material declared- Check)
3/ Remove Depreciation and Amortization
$204m (+$2m on twice half year figure prediction)
4/ Take off annual interest charge.
$98m (+$21m FY2014)
Explanation: No interest being capitalised ($37 million in FY14) following the commissioning of major projects. This is offset partially by lower interest costs on debt due to lower average interest rates as a result of debt refinancing completed over the past 2 years
5/ Calculate tax payable at 28%
$62m (lower ,reflecting higher business costs than anticipated)
6/ Calculate NPAT (normalised estimate).
=$161m ($16m lower than anticipated)
From this the foreacst earnings per share are:
$161m / 733m = 22.0cps
Fully imputed dividend of 11cps already paid.
Actual dividend 15cps, with no imputation credits at all! Not impressed. Contact are just giving me 15c of my own capital back , but with a tax bill. They should have canned the final dividend IMO. The long term income investors shouldn't complain. We have just received a 50c fully imputed bonus dividend after all!
SNOOPY