The sentence in bold at the end of CEO Jason Cherrington's report in AR2022 is the one that sticks out to me. I get the impression that Accordant is 'primed to go', but the building blocks they cannot control are not in place. The student/travelseeker market is still down and other countries post pandemic shock are opening up faster. Will these potential workers return like they did before? The number of working holiday visas granted per year post the Covid-19 arrival shock dropped from 60,000 to under 1,000.
https://figure.nz/chart/XiAyD2LiuU82BMpD
The government seems keener on fewer higher net worth travellers who won't have to interrupt their OE to make a few bucks. Not great for
AWF.
AbsoluteIT is operating in a market where the supply of students is not drying up.
https://figure.nz/chart/nqRblNs4jmN5...0IALwSk3zq4ecw
Post the arrival of Covid-19, domestic students in IT have taken up the slack of overseas students no longer studying in NZ. Yet somehow AbsoluteIT is not getting the growth traction management expect. It could be the more senior positions they specialise in are unattractive compared to job offers overseas. The Aussie federal government is offering a '30% refundable tax offset' for the gaming industry.
https://digitaleconomy.pmc.gov.au/fa...ent-incentives
That means that gaming companies spending $0.5m or more can operate 'income tax free'. That policy will surely take the wind out of gaming industry growth sales in NZ. In addition the Australian government is looking to increase digital economy venture capital project tax concessions.
Madison after some cool years look to be back into their stride. It is good that they have been able to take advantage of changing opportunities provided by the pandemic. But I remember how well they did out of the Census project and how business slumped after that. Hiring intentions within Madison would suggest they see more opportunity than slump on the horizon. The fact that they have hired more people and are looking to hire even more is a statement of substance over blind optimism.
Reading the
JacksonStone website shows wide penetration into both the government and non-government sectors. These senior level employment search contracts are largely exclusive, rather than openly competitive. A strong income stream and satisfied customers bodes well for the future.
As an Accordant shareholder, I am feeling like I have a stake in building a highly tuned four cylinder performance internal combustion engine. Two of the cylinders are running cleanly (JacksonStone & Madison), another is showing signs of good performance but has a high speed misfire (AbsoluteIT) while the fourth cylinder (AWF) is blowing smoke and in need of a 'ring job' (they need more workers to 'ring in'). Now I imagine taking my highly tuned motor to the racetrack and putting it up against the (investment) competition. I feel positivity, I feel hope, but I don't feel as though I will be racing around at the front of the pack. My new chief mechanic, Jason Cherrington, is a bit of a wiz on motor tuning. But no matter how top notch the engine management talent is, you have to give him good equipment to work with. I don't see a quick and easy fix for AWF, which if you apportion management and interest costs to it is now loss making. It will take more than Simon Hull on a megaphone to fix it. My overall feeling is that my 'fiery little motor' is currently an 'also ran' :-(
discl: Shareholder, not feeling the accumulation love :-(