|
eps |
dps (imputed) |
FY2018 |
? + -0.001 |
Not Applicable |
FY2019 |
6.2 |
8.2 + 8.0 |
FY2020 |
9.4 |
8.2 + 8.0 |
FY2021 |
18.1 |
0.0 + 0.0 |
FY2022 |
10.4 |
8.2 + 6.5 |
FY2023 |
6.1 + ? |
5.6 + 6.5 |
Total |
50.2 |
59.2 |
5 year Average |
|
11.8 |
Note
1/ Implied Acceptable Share Price = (Gross Dividend) / (Acceptable Yield)
=> (11.8c / 0.72) / 0.08 = $2.05
-------------
Higher historical dividends roll off the historical calculation feed, to be replaced by today's lower dividends. This is why the capitalised dividend valuation of the company has reduced by 5c, despite the more positive outlook. Nevertheless at the closing price of $1.64, the share price is well within the band of keeping Accordant in the 8% yield club.
It has been a turbulent six months for the share price. The support line of $1.60ish was tested a couple of times, and may yet be again. The share price has bounced as high as the mid $1.80s even if most traders were either SHAZ members or bots.
IOW to trade a meaningful sized parcel of shares to take advantage of this share price volatility would be impossible.
Once again cashflow exceeded profit. That was fortunate because the announced half year dividend exceeded profit as well, albeit not by a huge amount (6.5c vs 6.2c). The rest of the excess cashflow went towards reducing debt. Long term debt fell by $3m to $15m. This little game of cashflows exceeding profits is coming to an end though, as the amortisation of various 'restraints on trade' and 'historical customer relationships' created as a result of paying more than net asset value for past business acquisitions fades with time.
Dividends declared I see as a vote of management confidence. So it is historically interesting that the 6.5c interim dividend declared exactly matched the interim dividend declared last year, despite a more positive outlook. The segment analysis showed that revenue is down for the blue collar temp workers (yet again, probably as a result of overseas labour supply constraints) while revenue for white collar temporary workers surged by 20%. Our CEO Jase is telling us "the labour market continues to see unprecedented client demand." I wonder if this is an indication that Accordant is 'near the top' of the earnings curve? So much going forwards rests on how the Blue Collar division recovers from 'the blues'.
AGL has in the past payed out 100% of their underlying earnings as dividends over time. So if dividends are to be restored or even increase above historical high levels, then so must earnings.
Tempering the outlook is the ghostly figure of former CEO Simon Bennett looking for complimentary business acquisitions. And that means 'cash out' from the balance sheet is an imminent threat. That could be why the market received what I thought was quite a positive result in a muted way. From HYR2023
"We have an appetite for acquisition as previously indicated. Whilst it has been complex identifying and progressing with suitable targets in the past couple of years, we have been assessing some interesting and attractive prospects. The opportunity for sustainable growth via acquisition therefore continues to appeal."
I take it the fact that no purchase has been announced is that Bennet is being very careful with his due diligence. Let's hope so!