With a rising 400 SMA ....Did u see the rising trend line in BP post few weeks back ...its rising ...means it goes up little bit ...same as 400 SMA ...its at 32.25 Attachment 13079
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With a rising 400 SMA ....Did u see the rising trend line in BP post few weeks back ...its rising ...means it goes up little bit ...same as 400 SMA ...its at 32.25 Attachment 13079
oversold with clear divergence on the RSI.
I'm seeing a bullish descending wedge. ready for spike down and reversal.Attachment 13082
discl. trading this stock , currently long.
How a results date announcement become price sensitive info ...NZX fault or FPH ??
And puts FPH in auto HALT for 15 mins
Hey alokdhir - Forbar gurus say they’ve built a model based on export data to forecast sales. Did you help them …or maybe they just stole your idea (IP)
They say - The newly built ‘revenue proxy’ model implies the healthcare exporter will report a revenue decline of approximately 9% to $830m, which is modestly below consensus.
Their model as good as yours?
That would be 15% YOY growth without Covid W69 so could easily be about right
If u read my last post after August exports data release date ....I have mentioned almost exactly the same figure as most likely 6 months revenue ...Looks like they have stolen my IP ...they will be hearing from me ...or they just read it here ...lol
Final figure will be updated after Sept exports data released . But it will remain in that vicinity only $ 825-850Mil
" FPH didn't have good August sales ...lowest of FY 22 so far ....only $ 120 Mil estimated from exports data out yesterday .
5 months so far $ 700 Mil ...little above analysts expectations but below mine ...https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images.../thumbdown.gif
PS : If Sept is also similar then 6 months results can be around $ 825-50 Mil range "
Post Number 2004
Well done Alokdhir- FPH master
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/
Seems about right
Most likely full year FY22 eps will be around 75 cents ...so average p/e of 45 = $ 33.50 Current fair value ...It will get rerated for next years eps of 90 cents when market is sure of it ...most likely after Nov results ...so Dec to March 22 will be most productive period for SP if all goes well .
Forward PE for FPH is in the early forties. Not cheap (even considering the forward earnings CAGR of 13), but not too dear either.
This is just the premium the market seems to be happy to pay for quality companies.
Just compare that with XRO (forward PE of 330 - with an "earnings CAGR" not worthwhile talking about (year to year earnings still jittering around the zero);
Or compare that with AIA ... similar forward PE like FPH (if the analysts are right, which they often are not) and a negative forward earnings CAGR.
But sure - market well might decide at some stage to reduce its ideas of what an appropriate P/E is ... and I suppose if interest rates keep rising, this might be one of the triggers.
How u said both things in same breath ...U said $ 830 mil revenue which translates to 75 cents annualised eps below consensus and then U said FY22 consensus is 62 cents !!
Historically FPH has traded on p/e of 35 to 60 range ..say mean being 47.5 ...after mid year gone ie after Nov results ...market starts discounting it for next years expected eps so p/e starts expanding towards higher range .
I expect same to happen after its consolidation is over . From Dec onwards it may start looking to FY23 eps of 85-90 cents depending on analysts views ...Mine medium term views are 75cents this year , 85-90 cents eps for FY23 ...so in calendar 22 sometime it should trade to $ 45 ...
Article in CNBC about Philips. I guess FPH will be facing same issues (supply chain issue, shortage of electronic components etc etc):
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/phil...ages-bite.html
Same with car manufacturers around the world. Not sure though, I am convinced it will hit their bottom line. If you produce something which is in demand and you can't produce enough of it due to supply shortages and your competitors are exactly in the same situation causing a shortage of product in the market - what exactly is happening to the margins?
Right :t_up:.
"“At this stage, we do not anticipate any significant impact on supply to our existing customers. We will continue to assess this on an ongoing basis, particularly if the outbreak escalates or continues for a prolonged period,” said Mr Gradon.
“During this challenging time for China, we appreciate the efforts of our own team and our suppliers. Our people have been working long hours to ship products quickly, assemble them, and meet the need for training, particularly in Wuhan. Many of our suppliers have expedited the supply of raw materials to us as a manufacturer of essential medical devices, and we are deeply grateful for that,” he said."
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348775
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/our-compa.../supply-chain/
FPH has shown in 2020 that they manage challenges much better then many other companies ...so I see this as another opportunity to SHINE ...:t_up: