Anyone going to buy Gazprom???... :)
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Anyone going to buy Gazprom???... :)
nzx moving up....
Gerhard Schröder grand plan just got derailed..
Russian market Indexs smashed...
US market Indexs powers back ....
As it should be .. DA!
Hi Johnny the Horse, I am new on the site and really enjoy the comments as I have learnt so much from experienced investors on how share investment works. I was intrigued by your post this morning about the big boys manipulating the price. Could you explain how the shorts and options thing works. Cheers
It's surprising imo and a bit weird what some of these people think, and believe as well. Certainly well outside my comprehension, I find it difficult to even consider or process. Anyway, I walked past again on my way to the railway station, despite my mask it seemed everyone was chilled and appeared to be going nowhere any time soon. I didn't feel threatened in any way.
I can understand the residents, schools and businesses in the vicinity being hacked off. It's a massive inconvenience and it's gone on for way too long.
FWIW the rush hour train had only a few patrons in the carriage whereas normally it would be packed.
The office had about six people in a 120+ floor plate. City is very quiet, really feeling for businesses. I think this will end a few of them, I can't see how this self inflicted pseudo lockdown, which may last for weeks, will cope with no or small government sustainment grants now that it has moved to 'look after yourself' mode.
I think we're going to see an alarmingly large number of infections relatively quickly and there are no businesses that will be able to function under the current rules. Except maybe those whose staff can function while isolating voluntarily and not be sick enough that they can also work remotely.
Well, what a week and what a month...
A recap on some current musings.
Most market participants probably feel like they have been in an emotional roller-coaster ride over the last month. Omicron, inflationary concerns & the Ukraine issues all adding to the mix. The intriguing reality though, is when looking back to exactly a month ago (25/1/22), the NZX50, ASX200, S & P 500, and VIX are now ALL pretty much at the same level. The markets have just gone sideways. Who would have thought?
However, when peeling the layers back a little and looking at the internal TA & fundamental measures, IMO there is a good case to say that things have actually continued to slightly deteriorate. At a minimum, the warning signs to the Bulls are still flashing orange.
Whilst market sentiment readings (e.g. Put-Call ratio), VIX, and Large/Small player commitment readings stay relatively benign, in the real world the geopolitical & economic conditions are certainly telling us a different story. In my view, many participants are still fixated on a "buying the dip". As previously opined, this is all part of the market gradually evolving from a hyper-extended Bull market to a traditional Bear market.
Giving us smart STers time to organise our affairs and strengthen cash positions. :)
Gosh. I was certainly off a little with the timing! In my own defence though, predicting the timing length of various phases of a market is always one of the hardest parts of successful market TA & trading.
I do note though that the S & P 500 pierced through the 4200 level this week, taking out the 24/1 intraday low, but has immediately retracted. Alas, no 2DC below 4200, yet.
Finishing this week at 4385, I wouldn't be surprised to now see the retracement/consolidation follow through for the next week or two (sorry, there goes that timing thing again!), with 4450 being an initial target. 4600 is an extended possibility, but now presents a formidable resistance zone (previously support and of Fib significance).
NZX50: Sorry to the Bulls, I currently don't see a lot of strength or resilience with this market. Fundamentally or Technically. The team of 50 companies (and 5 million kiwis) is under immense pressure, and there is more brown stuff coming down the pipeline. Fundamentally, there is no hiding the facts about how much we have "mortgaged our future".
In my view 11,000 is the next key target, and quite possibly in reasonably short order; say by the end of May (yip yet again, there goes that timing thingy)
Full Moon Jinx? Just for a bit of fun, I'll put it out there. Pencil Friday March 18th in your diaries folks.
Not only is it a quadruple witching day on the US markets, but it's also a Full Moon. Volumes & volatility normally run higher on these witching days. Coupled with a sprinkling of elevated emotions "from the Full Moon", could make an interesting session; perhaps marking a pivot point or day of capitulation/euphoria. Incidentally, the 2020 Covid plunge low was marked by a New Moon - 23/24 March 2020.
Safe Investing/Trading.
NZX up 1.6% yesterday. S&P 500 up 2.24% last night.
Are we leading the US or will we follow them on Monday?
Plenty of volatility for the traders, possibly a good buying time for investors.
I'm just riding the roller coaster.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ZEH7BA7ZLPKOE/
Very sensible views from Guru Lister ...it seems he sees this as buying opportunities especially for NZX ....
"The volatility we are seeing at present might ultimately prove an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors, although it is extremely difficult to make a judgement on exactly when to step in".
Extremely difficult - he's not kidding !
Been asked a few times by PM about how I might unwind my very high cash allocation. My view is the economy faces some very strong headwinds at present that don't look like they will abate anytime really soon. Furthermore, the geopolitical situation has rarely been more extreme with a huge range of potential outcomes including the possibility of a full blown European war between NATO countries and Russia and even the possibility of the use of Nuclear weapons.
Its going to be impossible to pick a bottom so gradually dollar cost averaging back in over 12-24 months on an ad hoc basis from time to time as various heavily oversold opportunities present themselves is where I'm at with a keen eye on TA confirming my fundamental analysis. If the nukes start being used then the value of our investments falling will be the least of our problems :eek2:
It seems bizarre that the DOW went up 800 points today. This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, nowhere even remotely close to being over.
Thats also sensible ...getting into good stocks slowly at likeable prices ....
But most are well invested keeping in view they hold long term positions ....for them this is not the time to worry much and do much ...just let this also pass ...if it turns from 10000 or 8000 is not the question for them ....after 1-2 years will it be 15000 or still 9000 is more relevant ....IMO it will eventually come back from where ...only God knows ....even Guru Lister wont comment on that !!!
Dow going up 834 points mean mostly that markets not yet ready to collapse ...also markets were more concerned about sanctions then actual conflict ...so if these are the maximum sanctions in play and not any more countries get involved in conflict then market is good with that ...Important point Lister made about this turmoil will stop Central Banks from being too Hawkish as now they need worry about sentiment and economic confidence too . He says it may lead to lower tops of the rate cycle