Coronavirus: Air New Zealand cuts more flights
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12313941
demand obviously falling rapidly
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Coronavirus: Air New Zealand cuts more flights
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12313941
demand obviously falling rapidly
Yes well I have to admit I halved my holding at beginning of January even before Coronavirus struck due to challenges AIR facing with RR Dreamliner engines not even beginning to be solved for at least another 18 months.
Then have sold almost rest of holding recently as this does look really ugly.
Everyone I know postponing/cancelling holidays & with no travel insurance I cant imagine how anyone could take the risk.
One of our family members ended up in hospital in the US and the eventual bill was well over US $100,000 - fortunately covered by insurance.
Once an airline gest into strife it doesn't take much to tip it over the edge
Flybe broke (again)
https://www.theguardian.com/business...nounces-rescue
Gwyn Topham, the Guardian’s transport correspondent, predicts this morning that Flybe won’t be the last. Virgin has enacted emergency money-saving measures after bookings halved; Ryanair and easyJet have cancelled hundreds of flights to Italy and elsewhere; BA has even cut transatlantic flights; and Donald Trump has held crisis talks with US airline bosses
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/d...versity-travel
Just more examples of a further step down in demand, when main NZ organisations reduce travel domestically expect things to financially deteriorate quickly for AIR
Amongst some of the airline news from Europe today, FlyBe gone into receivership and Lufthansa Group parks up 150 planes and cancels 7,100 flights in March, about 25% of its schedule. Their shares down 5.5% today and 22% since Feb 21
https://www.barrons.com/articles/sou...ks-51583422748
Airlines stocks getting hammered - ugly day for the sector.
US$100 billion expected in losses for airline sector.
Guess another earnings downgrade for Air NZ may be on the cards.
IATA just came out and just on quadrupled their estimate of the impact globally on airlines from their earlier estimate in February.
Many North American carriers down 12-13% overnight.
Some cruise lines down ~ 15% overnight.
I expect AIR will go under $2 in the very near future.
Several experts on CNBC saying the sector is basically un-investable at present, (Airlines, cruise ship operators, hotels and other tourism stocks).
Extremely serious implications for AIR, THL, SKC and Skyline enterprises in my opinion.
'This is a crisis.' Airlines face $113 billion hit from the coronavirus
https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/05/busine...vel/index.html
Thanks for the link. I can't help wondering what IATA's estimate of the financial impact will be a month from now ? My guess is it could very easily quadruple again.
AIR to downgrade outlook substantially in the next couple of weeks or just play it safe and withdraw guidance altogether and say we can no longer estimate the impact ?
Govt must desperately need this AIR dividend, which must be only thing holding up the SP, but can't imagine there'll be any future ones after this for some time.
Noticed a serious change in tone from Public Health officials in last day or two. Is it too late now for AIR to cut this dividend?
If there was a sudden announcement next week, SP would drop like a stone.
In my view excellent example for a dividend trap.
Holders might ask themselves what the share is worth without the in the current situation unsustainable dividend payment. If it is less than the current SP minus the dividend, it might be a good time to sell.
Of course - in 12 to 18 months things are likely to look rosier again (with many competitors gone and the virus coming under control). I do have as well no (well, little) doubt that AIR will survive, even it it is just due to government intervention. But really hard to say what the remaining value of the shares will be if significant dilution due to a bailout is a possibility.
The worst thing is - any dividend payments now are reducing their chances to get without capital raise through this crisis. I don't think it is in the best interest of the shareholders.
Anyway - not holding . DYOR.
I don't think the Govt desperately needs it, (their books are in pretty good shape at this stage), but the lack of caution by the board, and / or their lack of foresight is concerning. I think its highly likely the next financial transaction between shareholders and AIR after this dividend will be AIR asking for money i.e. capital riase.
I cannot recall any company declaring a dividend before and then annulling it before its paid. Such a move to the best of my knowledge would be not only unprecedented but a serious embarrassment for the board.
The potential for very serious demand destruction going forward should be obvious to all and airlines trade on very thin margins with a very high fixed cost base. Once they have worked their way through delivering on the ~ $1.4b of prepaid tickets that existed at 31 December 2019 (and let's for the sake of keeping this simple assume a similar figure that existed at the start of February before this started to look really worrisome), which amounts to about 3 months worth of flights, by May 2020 this could get very serious for AIR.
If it was safe to travel in aircraft with this virus why have AIR stood their entire crews down that were working on those flights that the corona virus passenger was on ?
They weren't within 1 metre of that passage for 15 minutes like the ministry of health tells us is their "official risk zone". Who's telling porkies ? Ministry of Health, AIR or are we in some sort of state of malaise where nobody really knows how to accurately assess the risk ?
How long before the public en-masse, decide its better to play it safe than be sorry ?
I was laughing and joking to a colleague a couple of nights ago and noticed I was emitting small droplets landing on his face-he didnt seem to notice but I moved away to about 2 metres which seemed a lot safer.On reflection if I had corvid-19 it would only have taken seconds to transmit the virus.Also my droplets were all over his face so he could easily inoculate himself later(also I probably put a few on his conjunctiva).
So yes they must be telling porkies as it saves having to test people.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12314164
AIR takes axe to services with Hong Kong, Taipei and Singapore flights down 25-50% over the next few months. "Demand has fallen off a cliff"
Denial... denial... denial