From the Politik post:
So net immigration in 2019 could be 10,000 incoming, or 70,000, or higher, lower, negative, or in between. There would be a big impact from the extremes of those figures. We rely on Treasury projections? Don't forget that National rode in on no policies in 2008, except a BS projection from Treasury that Labour would have to borrow heavily to meet their spending, and it would take 10 years before they were back to surplus. National fixed that, they just posted record deficits for years on end, borrowed $70,000 million, and dropped the tax rate for the well off.Quote:
But the reality is that the Government is flying blind.
Because the immigration forecasts have proved to be so unreliable, it cannot with any certainty predict house demand even two or three years out.
The govt could control the amount of immigration of non-NZers, it has been done before. Obviously they won't do that before the 2017 elections, they're not that crazy. Meanwhile the floodgates are open, that's the message that is going out. Those buying houses in Auckland to get in on the bonanza, have at least until late 2017 to make a profit, and get out before the inevitable crash.