IFT is like an investment trust. They always seem to get oversold and trade at large discounts to NTA when markets become cautious. Seismic risk has to be reassessed in many companies and areas now.
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I'm not a great fan of TA. To me TA is just an analysis of FA in retrospect. IFT is being driven down on fundamentals which in themselves trigger TA points which can then have the effect of taking on its own life. What if IFT come out with an announcement to make a special dividend to shareholders or that they have sold the investment they have in the Wellington airport to the WCC at the point where the SP is $2.53? TA not much help.
There has to be a reason why there is such a discount to NTA. If the discount widens much further IFT would have to be a TO target (unless the NTA is overvalued or unrealistic)
Who would be prepared to buy the Wellington airport?
The reason the NTA reads $498.59 on the NZX site, is because the the wrong figure has been entered by the NZX team (human error). The 'Non controlling interests' haven't been removed with the intangibles in determining the the NTA for shareholders.
I recently bough back int IFT at 2.68 (after selling out several months ago at 3.44), I see very good value at these levels - NTA is around the $3 mark according to half yearly but would have come back a bit based on TPW & MET SP - it would be interesting to calculate current NTA. However IFT is trading at around 6% yield, is well diversified and appears to have bottomed out at 2.64. Debt is approx 30% of asset value, which is low considering the quality of the assets. With the good diversification I think IFT will have good performance from these assets over the next few years - notably MET and the data center, with trust power, property and wellington airport steady as she goes. I see more upside and see current price as good fundamental value while trading at these levels. I see fair value around that 3.10 mark.
Hmm ... not quite sure I'd describe IFT in such flamboyant terms ...
Trustpower is currently playing the falling knife game and unlikely to recover soon ...
MET is (as the other retirement villages / REIT's) pushed down by people concerned about falling (or stagnating) property prices
Wellington Airport sits on reclaimed land ... and we just got a reminder that earthquakes are not unheard off in this area;)
NZ Bus is hardly a winning game, given that it has to compete against Maori companies with tax privileges
As well - the big returns of the past (due to asset sales) are history, at least for some time to come. Predicted EPS for FY2017 is below 8 cents per share, resulting in a forward PE of roughly 35;
As well - just had another look at the graph, it looks like a text book downtrend:
Attachment 8535
So - just remind me - why do you think that IFT bottomed already out?
Like NZSilver, I think IFT has been a bit oversold on the back of an overly pessimistic outlook for several of its investments. But I won't be attempting to calculate a "fair value" nor buy any while the SP is in a downtrend.
Agree with you on this one BP. Investors need to keep in mind the very steep downtrend is happening contemporaneously with the companies own share buy-back ! If this buy-back weren't happening the downtrend would be even more severe ! Investment companies buying back their own shares because the directors believe that's in the companies best interests doesn't impress me. Just let the SP speak for itself. The market obviously has serious concerns otherwise the SP wouldn't be tanking.
Looks like it'll hit $2.50
Closed at $2.60 with 1.3 million shares going through on close, must be some index rebalancing going on here as these are very unusual volumes for this stock, could be the last big clean out before it starts heading north on a more lasting basis, some massive buy bids so some like the company.
Will have to disagree with you here Roger, the company has only bought back 1.5 million shares to date out of the 50 million they are intending to buy back so very little propping up the price there. As you know share prices can tank because of an irrational market(We both know of other stocks where that has happened now dont we) while a good company is just getting on with business. Remember this company is paying increasing dividends and is creating shareholder wealth by making a range of diverse acquisitions along the way which will take some time to bear fruit