Originally Posted by
BlackPeter
Will HBL be in 5 years more worth than it is now? Nobody knows, but you well might be right. Agree as well that it is a well run company, though from what I hear the overall customer experience is not flawless ... ever tried their mobile internet banking?
However - all this does not mean that it is a good idea to hold them now. SP is in a clear and sustained downtrend (below MA50 and MA200), and passed the cross of death (MA50 below MA 200); Analysts aren't that enthusiastic either: Consensus (12-month) price target is $1.81 and recommendation is "underperform".
And yes - analysts are not always right, but they are not always wrong either. I think KW's recommendation re not buying into a downtrend would be applicable here.
Banking stocks internationally on the downtrend - and even if we assume that HBL will keep continue growing as they did in the past - if the market feels that the industry deserves a lower PE, than HBL will be effected as well. No tragedy, just means that it might be possible to buy in some months (or whenever) a good stock at a still better price ;);
No point fighting the market.
Obviously - for people holding the question is - are we close enough to (or have we passed already) the bottom? This is a more difficult question to answer and I will not even try. However - I am glad I sold out around $2 ... and looking forward to buy them again when it looks like their uptrend continues.