Sometimes just turning off the 'news' and watching the markets will give you a better sense of the morrow. http://www.investing.com/charts/real...futures-charts - select your favourite instrument and timeframe. Live.
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Sometimes just turning off the 'news' and watching the markets will give you a better sense of the morrow. http://www.investing.com/charts/real...futures-charts - select your favourite instrument and timeframe. Live.
That's it, shares are just too much effort and hassle. Tomorrow I'm investing all my money into something more relaxing and enjoyable:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...-and-gold.html
From the UK Telegraph today reporting on confidential alert to high nett worth clients of Royal Bank of Scotland
“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.nd
Predicts a " cataclysmic year for stock markets" oil at $ 16.00 per barrels, and markets "falling by one fifth"
And there will be another "expert" recommending the exact opposite to their clients......
My key learning from the GFC / Great Recession is that economic forecasting ability has gone from average to (very) poor. So much so, that most economists now seem to spend their time analysing the past and attributing causes to various situations that have already happened, rather than there being a general consensus opinion of the future that is broadly supported by the majority of forecasters
The general vacuum of consensus opinion of what the future holds seems to amplify the "sheep mentality" and move markets very quickly over short time frames. I guess this in itself provides short term buying and selling opportunities if you can get the timing right
Lots in red this morning...
The annual SocGen strategy presentation fronted by the bank’s famous (equity) bear Albert Edwards.
Investors are coming to terms with what a Chinese renminbi devaluation means for Western markets. It means global deflation and recession. The coming carnage is an indirect result of the failure of the Fed’s QE. It may not have done much to boost US growth, but it certainly inflated global asset prices into the stratosphere. The one area though, where US QE did unambiguously boost growth was in emerging markets (EM) as surplus money poured into these supposedly superior investment opportunities, leading to massive EM foreign exchange intervention to hold their currencies down. This turned ineffective US QE into very effective EM QE in terms of boosting EM economic growth. A commodity bubble and the resultant US shale investment boom were all consequences of the Fed’s QE. The illusion of prosperity is shattered as boom now turns to bust. But I do hope this time around the Queen won’t ask, as she did in November 2008, why nobody saw this coming!
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/01/1...ent-2100-peak/
Interesting read!
OMG blackcross - I read the rest of it
Didn't like this bit - S&P at 550 - ouch, but possible.
Where will this all end? I believe the Fed and its promiscuous fraternity of central banks have created the conditions for another debacle every bit as large as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. I believe the events we now see unfolding will drive us back into global recession. I have long believed that 30y US bond yields would converge with Japan, just as Germany has now done. But a key part of my Ice Age thesis is that the US equity market remains in a valuation bear market that did not fully play itself out in March 2009, when the S&P touched the 666 level, and we will see new lows…
If I am right and we have just seen a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, then the next recession will spell real trouble for investors ill-prepared for equity valuations to fall to new lows. To bottom on a Shiller PE of 7x would see the S&P falling to around 550. I will repeat that: If I am right, the S&P would fall to 550, a 75% decline from the recent 2100 peak…