and the US has Friday 13th tonight ....hmm
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and the US has Friday 13th tonight ....hmm
What a terrible day its been. The value of my portfolio is down $0.32 on the close last week. :(
Is this the big drop we've been told to expect.
Oh No!--good news in the States (what will Janet do--Oh dear)--Dow sheds 550 points for the week--Dont forget kids..good is bad and bad is good..----No No Janet,dont take away all that almost free money--We quite like this big Casino your forefathers have created where the odds are always in favor of the house-and if asking nicely doesnt work we will throw a hissey fit and and you can watch all those mom and pop investors and pension funds that also jumped on the bandwagon get fleeced--that will show you Janet,to stuff around with us---We own you-we own the Gov-and we will make you pay,along with others,even those tiny countries who think they are safe in their cocoons.;)
Yet while this is going on, my friends and I am enjoying a record year on the NZX.
Just some of the stocks that are having a fantastic year are;AWK,CVT,EBO,FPH,FRE,GMT,POT,RBD,SCL,SKL,SUM and TIL.
With the "full moon" expected in both hemispheres on the 27th November I expect the strong momemtum to strengthen the upward trejactory.HNZ's agm on the 11th December will rally the whole NZX to greater heights .
Enjoy those profits--no sense messing with a good thing---but keep looking over your shoulder just in case.
(which brings me to another George Carlin Quote--''did you ever try to pick up a suitcase that you thought was full,but was empty,''whoose''....for just a second you feel really strong'':)
and just for those who need a really simple explanation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdH38k0iUgI
Sure KW, the market can crash any day if it so chooses ... and I agree, coming Monday is more likely to belong to the bears than to the bulls - certainly in Australia, and probably as well in NZ. Maybe a good time to go bush? Remind me to check the weather ...
Does this mean we need to be careful? Sure, we always should be. Does it mean we all need to sell our shares (hoping that there is still some greater fool out there buying them who didn't notice the recent mini-dip? I don't think so - and actually, if we think that through, than we might even find out that nobody might be left to buy any shares if everybody sells - not that many greater fools around (no reference to sharetrader posters with this or any other pen name intended;)).
History shows that it is sometimes the early sellers who make money (though only if they have the guts to buy back in later when everybody is desperate), but more often it is the people who are less nervous. Warren Buffet didn't make his fortune buy selling his shares every time the S&P dipped below the MA200.
Just wondering which fundamental reasons you would see for the markets to crash? I think we all got used by now to the idea that China is growing this year just 6.9% instead of 7, the US is doing not too bad and the "refugee crisis" in Europe might help to resolve the issues with an age pyramide balancing on its top. Yes, Australia has and will keep for some time its structural problems - but I even expect resources to come up again (though not tomorrow or next month, but maybe within the next couple of years). Emerging economies (and everybody else) likely to benefit from cheap oil - and just think about our airlines (like AIR) who benefit from continuously sending flocks of climate change leaders consistently around the globe.
Growth everywhere ...
Sure - at some stage markets all across the world need to adapt to lesser and potentially Zero growth (and maybe even some shrinking) - but does this mean that only cash is safe? If you analyse some real human catastrophes (like e.g. the aftermath of WW1 and WW2 in Europe), than it was never the people holding cash who have been king, but the people holding production capital (e.g in form of shares).
Everybody for themselves, but I don't see at this stage the need for panic (actually - I rarely do ...).
DYOR
You missed out the one single thing that has caused the most volatility in (at least) US markets--can you guess what that is? (it aint china(although thats worth watching)-it aint OZ-it aint refugees,oil,or emerging countries (although they will be affected).... Its....
..the full moon on the 27th November.
AFR Talking up carnage on the markets tomorrow
Futures are not always correct in predicting ,but it does look rather gloomy ATM
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
Yes,being Sunday in the states-you are right-more time obviously passes from Friday to Monday as as I said future dont always make an accurate prediction-but as you say,with the Paris attacks included,its hard to be optimistic at the moment.
The Paris attacks will eventually settle,but the fact that it was down before is not great.
Guess the ball is in the Kiwi-Oz, Asian and Europeon markets markets to point the way first..
I wrote this midday friday 13th November....
Strange as it may seem, down trending markets and markets in a bear cycle always seem to get clobbered by a series of bad news events
EDIT:.. Wall St fell over -1% Friday. It was closed for the day when the Paris Terrorist attacks commenced..(4.20pm NYT)
I was thinking more Interest rates than Paris--but pre market is better than Friday--still red but not a major
Yes KW...and..please excuse my posting below as it's my latent furturist behaviour popping out...
This could be boon for online behavior......and the safety threat could help push through initiative disruptive technology
1..shopping (already here)
2..Restaurant on line...Pay online to cook your exquisite dinner (as per menu) via your home 3D printer..
3..Put on your VR headset and go touring...The VR program networks with hundreds of webcams or other interactive streaming devices within your visual perimeter gives you nanosecond interactive live updates...imagine being virtually present watching those dangerous events unfold around you..and knowing you are completely safe..Why watch CNN/BBC on the basic TV or Facebook/Twitter on your phone.eh?
OK thats enough of that from me....blame it on "nothing to do due to the rained out day"
all of the last seven bear markets (US) we’ve seen have been fueled, if not started, by the actions of the Fed.
Table shows the pain to come - but janet won't be doing anything but tease the market until mid to late next year (Presidential elections you see)
What are peoples thoughts about when the farming (milk) sector might bounce back?
Hard to pick and if we could , we would all be super rich .
Just like to say generally markets overshoot to levels you would never envisage .They stay depressed and over bought ( irrational) longer than we can stay solvent .
I always remember the USA and the Gulf war" it will be all over in a year and we will be out of there " .... great Tui ad.Or maybe a building project this will be finished in 6 months ....
Commodities and economic downturns are much the same.
Currently many commodities are depressed including iron ore ...crushing the Aussie economy , plenty of people picking a turnaround in this and oil but it doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon .
Wish I could help you more , but hopefully these general thoughts on markets can help you shape your thoughts on your situation.
Another view and a good read
https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/...ers/#more-1392
Thanks stoploss. I'm a bit of a novice at this kind of investment, so its great to be able to ask these dumb questions.
Speaking of dumb questions... Why are Aussies commodity prices so low?
Ok so it's not Aussie commodity prices , commodity prices are generally denominated in USD . So currently the Gold price in Aud has not had such a severe downturn for Australian producers as the Aussie currency vs the Usd has depreciated considerably to compensate for the weak economy , lower interest rates etc ...( getting off point a little here )
To answer your question WHY , in what some are calling the greatest commodity boom since the great gold rush ...Australia , Brazil , and China due in a large part to massive Chinese demand
started producing ever increasing amounts of iron ore , opening more mines in remote inhospitable regions/conditions .( Think 45 degree desert) Once the demand from China fell it has meant
an oversupply of the commodity and prices plunged .
Same goes for milk ...massive Chinese demand , farmers produce more and more as Fonterra happy to take it ...but they have to build more expensive processing plants .....demand drys up from China the price plummets . This is for the milk powder,value added high end products are ok - think A2 infant powder . Same goes for lumber prices ...it breaks my heart to see so many logs sitting at the Port, why not turn it into an IKEA product add some value , create some jobs .
You will be able to find a heap of stories on the current collapse in the oil price . Basically Saudi have the taps open full bore, Iraq and Iran back online, and America producing massive amounts of shale oil and gas to stem their massive imports.
This is just basic supply and demand . There are a heap of other reasons and other factors at play . Hard to explain fully and there is always another side of the argument , ways to pick holes in the reasoning etc ... so this is not a definitive , just my opinion . Good luck out there.
The following need to change before a meaningful price recovery will occur. Not all need to happen, but several do, not just 1 or 2
- Russian ban on EU milk products must be lifted
- EU over-production must stop. Some member states have increased production significantly since quota's were dropped
- China must increase purchasing at least back to 2013 levels
- USA must not increase exports
- Fonterra must stop paying Aussie dairy farmers more for their milk than they pay their NZ farmers (who are also their company owners)
- Fonterra must grow branded value-add production 4-fold or more
- Forex must remain favourable
Many countries still subsidise dairy production. Current low prices don't necessarily hurt their farmers as much as NZ farmers. So NZ farmers have become the "swing producers" leading to massive ups and downs in farm returns. 10 years ago prices were much more stable year to year
Will the spoiled wall street crowd revisit their interest rate paranoia and throw their toys out of the cot?--watch this space...
Interesting to see how the European markets reacted on another reduction in the interest rate and a further QE ... markets dropped - DAX by more than 3%. Not sure whether this was disappointment about not enough QE - or disappointment that the RB has so little confidence in the state of the economy?
Probably just time for the Reserve Banks to show some guts and do what's best long term for the economy instead of trying to keep a bunch of fickle speculators happy. Negative interest rates will kill economies ... just wait for the first big pension funds (who can't fund their commitments due to "income from negative interest" anymore) to falter - now this would give a (not so nice) splash!
Geez-oil down another 3+%--could be another rough day on wall str.
Lot of red today, maybe some nerves about DOW failing twice to make news highs from the recent August rout, after a stellar comeback though now currently falling to recent support? Other international markets are grappling with declines as well. Are we seeing big money taking profits locally?
Attachment 7759
quick note: I drew the Fib retrace from the August bottom but if it is drawn from the Sept 29 low, then the current retrace is right on the significant 38.2% -- spooky Fibs. Probably bounce here eh?
I was begining to think the market (US) was going to shrug off the Fed interest rise and then Bam! (or maybe just a Bam without the exclamation point--we'll find out Tues)
I think it's all about oil or the price of it. Russians are budgeting on $30 bbl as I have read, so I think there is still some way to go. My holdings on the DOW were off 3% this morning and I am expecting a continuation of a down trend for a while. The only way to rationalise it is to see this as a buying opportunity. I hold mainly Visa.
A bit of fear creaping into the market again. China - trading halt, now big drop in US markets. Could be an interesting week.
Yep maybe a bit of cleansing about to happen.
Technically head and shoulders on the dow so we shall see what that brings, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 looking the same of course.
another bad day on the US markets
So far they have managed to shrug off these drops but I guess it would be fool hearty to disregard
Attachment 7785
Old cartoon I found
so much for having the week off lol might retest the 16000 level this week?, nz is still looking good though :)
New Zealand cannot hold out forever,to think a tiny economy like ours is totally insulated will lose you money--Its looking like China part 2....other markets tumbling as a result (Chinas market went down 7% in a few hrs before the ''circuit breaker''kicked in and closed the market--the 2nd time this week)
correction on a few hrs--it was 14minutes 7 secounds :(
So now the ''circuit breaker'' has been scraped --so Fridays trading in China will go where it will--this will allow market to bounce back as the day goes on, or carry on down to who knows where--but at least it will be reality,so in a way the veil will be lifted.
absolutley right TT
China’s market has stabilised, closing 2% higher. Beijing authorities are thought to have been buying up shares, in an attempt to restore confidence.
Traders were also encouraged that the yuan was fixed at a higher level today, easing fears of a currency war.But confidence in the Chinese authorities has been hit by this week’s drama: (Quote)
They (China) seem to be learning as they go..(whoops ..that circuit breaker was a bad idea) and maybe we shouldnt mess so much with our currency
big fear apparently was a currency war
They have plugged the hole in the dam---but will things go on their merry way? (the NZ and OZ market had time to react to Chinas market rise)unlike when things happen on the Dow.9US jobs report bummed them a bit--(Damn! more people got work-now they might raise interest again--who cares about the average Joe--its our portfolio that counts!)
I suppose China is like an adolescent (in economic terms)which is experiencing ''growing pains'' as it tries to make the shift from childhood to adulthood
from the guardian
It should be no surprise that a rapidly growing industrial economy such as China’s is drifting into choppy financial waters. The advanced economies faced similar challenges at corresponding stages in their development. But, in coping with the consequences of financial turbulence, the advanced economies often suffered significant losses of output relative to potential. The Beijing authorities are professedly seeking to change China’s economic growth model from one which depends on exports and capital investment to one more firmly based on domestic consumption. But they may be over-estimating the extent to which politicians can choose how their economies grow. Since curbing growth in some sectors is usually easier than boosting it in others, the danger is that the attempt to re-orient the economy will result in overall weaker growth This is one reason, which seems to be widely acknowledged, why China’s future growth could well fall short not only of recent rates but even of the Beijing authorities’ more conservative projections for the years to come.
I expect the slow down in China to gather pace as 50,000 Chinese holidays makers will shortly land in NZ.
With say a $4,000 average spend China is going to be $200 mil worse off.
Adding to this problem these holiday makers will return to China with suitcases full of Comvita honey and Trilogy beauty products.
Do Air NZ and THL have enough planes and camper vans to cope with the demand?
The Chinese Gov. is making mistakes ATM but they still call the shots--They may well put a stop to that(Chinese taking their dosh out)--after all,domestic consumption is what they are aiming for--Watch this space (but it wont happen over night)
Meanwhile we should be thanking our lucky stars we are not an oil and natural resources based economy--Oz may be in for a rough ride.
NZ is one of the top holiday destination :) thanks to lord of the ring and hobbits movie.
the only disadvantage is the travel distance and air ticket is very expensive. if NZ is closer to china (e.g 3~5hours flight instead of more than 11hours..) then the traveler number could be easily tripled.
and yes we do buy lots of honey and beauty products, wool products.....oh and clothes like icebreaker :P
If China is in a mess with record amazing debt levels how come they have only lowered their GDP growth estimate from 7.5% (plus) to 7.0% (plus) ?
If China is doing so well (plus 7.0% GDP growth) how come their imports have fallen and also their electricity production? (shades of Argentine's inflation estimates?)
If China is doing so badly how come their tourists are pouring into NZ at ridiculously high levels like there is no tomorrow?
If Chinese can drive on the left in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore and Indonesia and Chinese tourists can drive on the left in Japan, why can't they drive on the left in New Zealand?
[QUOTE=
If Chinese can drive on the left in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore and Indonesia and Chinese tourists can drive on the left in Japan, why can't they drive on the left in New Zealand?[/QUOTE]
...they do.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news...oreign-drivers
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crim...haccused-named
:(
If the NZX does go into turmoil, what happens to shares of companies whole are successful during the period, especially those trading at PEs around the 10 mark? Do they tend to go down and become bargains or do they hold up their value as they're still going strong?
I'm thinking about my holdings in companies like Scl and THL who I expect to deliver some good news in February.
Obviously shares trading at higher, speculative ratios go down amid such turmoil even if they're doing OK, because their prices are based on influence from people doing speculative trading...
In GFC all stocks fell,and those who increased their dividends were the first to recover.
Companies carrying large debt [ie NPX] had to recapatilise,while others had cash issues to strengthen their balance sheets..
Today, NZ companies for the most part have very strong balance sheets,well managed, and are in very good shape,as is the country.
SCL and THL are going from strength to strength.
Yet volatility is something we have to learn to live with.
Hard to ignore this. NZ is not immune as the past week will attest on the blue chips.
Will it stop? Heck who knows, just don't ignore it.
Attachment 7793
The difference between short and long-dated Treasury yields is narrowing, a classic harbinger of an economic downturn....
http://video.ft.com/4689884892001/US-Treasury-yield-curve-flashing-yellow/markets
Plus 'transports' are showing signs of stress... that's 2 warning signs and enough for me to reduce my holdings.
On a positive note I'm usually on the wrong side of any trade..lol.
I guess an interesting thing about these particular troubles is that the shares that are dropping are not actually struggling. I guess the question is, will the events upcoming cause NZ companies to underperform.
I am unsure which shares you are referring to, but markets are forward looking, so they're not struggling based on the data you have at hand right now that is in the rear view mirror. Depending on what scenario you think is likely these companies valuations could look completely different - that is what you're seeing priced in right now, combined with a bit of de-risking.
As for the second part of your question - will events (which events?) cause NZ companies to underperform? My observation is this: Globally we currently have a global oversupply of a number of commodities combined with a bit of a bit of a slow down in consumption, there are a number of headwinds coming into 2016 and NZ is not except from this, think Dairy. But so far we have had a wealth effect which I believe has been contributed to by Auckland's property market + tourism has been going from strength to strength & our other exporters are being helped by the exchange rate. Will that continue? Who knows, if picking markets was easy we'd all be sipping cocktails in the Bahamas, not posting here on a Sunday evening.
These are just my thoughts, DYOR etc etc.
KG.
watching 16000 dow , 1870 es tonight
Today's the last day of drops, I'd say (for the short to medium term). All the announcements come out this week telling us how wonderful everything is.
Sometimes just turning off the 'news' and watching the markets will give you a better sense of the morrow. http://www.investing.com/charts/real...futures-charts - select your favourite instrument and timeframe. Live.
That's it, shares are just too much effort and hassle. Tomorrow I'm investing all my money into something more relaxing and enjoyable:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...-and-gold.html
From the UK Telegraph today reporting on confidential alert to high nett worth clients of Royal Bank of Scotland
“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.nd
Predicts a " cataclysmic year for stock markets" oil at $ 16.00 per barrels, and markets "falling by one fifth"
And there will be another "expert" recommending the exact opposite to their clients......
My key learning from the GFC / Great Recession is that economic forecasting ability has gone from average to (very) poor. So much so, that most economists now seem to spend their time analysing the past and attributing causes to various situations that have already happened, rather than there being a general consensus opinion of the future that is broadly supported by the majority of forecasters
The general vacuum of consensus opinion of what the future holds seems to amplify the "sheep mentality" and move markets very quickly over short time frames. I guess this in itself provides short term buying and selling opportunities if you can get the timing right
Lots in red this morning...
The annual SocGen strategy presentation fronted by the bank’s famous (equity) bear Albert Edwards.
Investors are coming to terms with what a Chinese renminbi devaluation means for Western markets. It means global deflation and recession. The coming carnage is an indirect result of the failure of the Fed’s QE. It may not have done much to boost US growth, but it certainly inflated global asset prices into the stratosphere. The one area though, where US QE did unambiguously boost growth was in emerging markets (EM) as surplus money poured into these supposedly superior investment opportunities, leading to massive EM foreign exchange intervention to hold their currencies down. This turned ineffective US QE into very effective EM QE in terms of boosting EM economic growth. A commodity bubble and the resultant US shale investment boom were all consequences of the Fed’s QE. The illusion of prosperity is shattered as boom now turns to bust. But I do hope this time around the Queen won’t ask, as she did in November 2008, why nobody saw this coming!
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/01/1...ent-2100-peak/
Interesting read!
OMG blackcross - I read the rest of it
Didn't like this bit - S&P at 550 - ouch, but possible.
Where will this all end? I believe the Fed and its promiscuous fraternity of central banks have created the conditions for another debacle every bit as large as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. I believe the events we now see unfolding will drive us back into global recession. I have long believed that 30y US bond yields would converge with Japan, just as Germany has now done. But a key part of my Ice Age thesis is that the US equity market remains in a valuation bear market that did not fully play itself out in March 2009, when the S&P touched the 666 level, and we will see new lows…
If I am right and we have just seen a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, then the next recession will spell real trouble for investors ill-prepared for equity valuations to fall to new lows. To bottom on a Shiller PE of 7x would see the S&P falling to around 550. I will repeat that: If I am right, the S&P would fall to 550, a 75% decline from the recent 2100 peak…
always funny when you see a down draft in the market, people come out with sensationalist headlines.
really funny was the part bull market within a bear market hahaha - I thought the market has been trending up for over 100yrs so shouldn't it be a bear market within a bull market - so many idiots abound with these headlines
Bull....
A mission for you
Head over to Crestmont Research it tells you about bull markets within bear markets...
...then...
Head over to Winner 69 ST thread (Investing Strategies and Secular bear Markets)..Start at the first post and read all 25 pages There is a lot of information so be warned its heavy going in parts for people who are not into share Market theory and how it all networks together so will take some time to read and mentally absorb...so arm yourself with your favourite beverages and snacks...relax take your time and enjoy.:)
..then..
When your mission is completed... you may have a new perspective on who the idiots are within the media world:)
EDIT: Anything that confusing.. write the query on the IS&SBM thread...Its a good educational thread
Ever asked yourself where did these guys like Buffett and Soros get all this money from to buy up the wreckage..
Ever asked yourself why Soros was doing a lot of selling in the last half of 2015
Of course.. money can be made in a bear market using different strategies...
Ever wondered why the insurance companies shied away from the once lucative basic life policies of the 1960,s and 70's...
Every wondered why Superannuation oscillates from being an excellent investment to one that's only average at best..resulting in generations that retire without wealth..
Ever wondered why a market perceived by investors as not being overvalued goes into a bear market...
Ever wondered why you struggle to make money late in an old bull market..
Ever wondered why fund managers and the "experts" were wrong in the past...(maybe a hidden agenda..eh?)
Ever wondered why 70% - 90% of all stock Market investors lose money over time..when the trend is av +7%/pa
"70 - 90 % of all stock market investors lose money over time"
Ever wondered if stats get pulled out of thin air?
That would mean 70-90% of the people on ST are going to lose their money....... you heard it here 1st
its only a paper loss until sold same as a paper profit,
saying that i am picking we are heading for a bear market so have moved my positions to more defensive stocks and am now short on a lot of holdings locking in profits i have already made
S&P has been trading at over two standard deviations from mean so a selloff isn't completely unexpected in my view, with or without the China excuse.
OK, theres always one followed by another; 3rd sure thing in life:)
No
Post #1084
Ever wondered why 70% - 90% of all stock Market investors lose money over time..when the trend is av +7%/pa.
Type ....."Do most people lose money in the stock market?" and google it ...there are about 31,200,000 results take your pick..
Great to know Sharetraders are part of the 10% to 30% of investors who make money.
Last year 183 of the 208 who entered ST competition made money.177 beat the bank deposit rate.
Even our own "ill famous" Couta1 was up 37.16%,while 100 were up over 20%..
Maybe we are better off just investing in NZ?
Agree Percy, well said.
Interesting rally on Wall Street today….. it will be interesting to see if it is a 'sucker rally' or the real thing. That said, I'm increasingly of the opinion that NZ stocks are generally nicely insulated from much of the international market mayhem.