good on ya slam
the prospect of higher rates will create some buyers for our dear wee $ and this makes it a bit of a scary short... tho its would appear to be struggling at this level....
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good on ya slam
the prospect of higher rates will create some buyers for our dear wee $ and this makes it a bit of a scary short... tho its would appear to be struggling at this level....
I mentioned the 'bullish flavor' yesterday, and that resulted in a maximum of circa 70 pips for brave souls who took the opportunity.
Alas I was not one of them [V]
arco
Went Long again last night
See how we go:)
Currently +17 (whoohoo)
Cheers
Slam
i was about to short actually
im waiting for it to break pass the 6938 point be4 i long it
Closed long for 68pips
will look to re-enter after this drop
Cheers
Slam
Minor Gann at 6958
Long again for another go at 7.
maybe hard to crack, this week;)
Cheers
Slam
Morning all
Well got to 7 but couldn't hold
Still think it is a long but will wait till this retrace is over. Formed a double bottom late fri so may be in place
Cheers
Slam
Despite earlier bids from a German bank [NZD/USD] has failed to gain much momentum and lies close to the base of a rough 0.6950-0.7035 ascending range. Additionally, a recent increase in Uridashi issuance has failed to give the Kiwi any significant prop which, coupled with a recovering Usd post-NFP, suggests the lower bound could give way. While technical targets lie around 0.6925 and 0.6900, more significant losses are likely to prove difficult in the face of an NZ rate hike expected Oct 27. Immediate relief would come from a break above the highlighted 0.7000-0.7015 region, though this has put up strong resistance in the past few sessions
Requires the patience of Job, but I'm looking for a retrace to 6895, 50% fib, which if seen, might be worth a small long for 7050, possibly 7200
Alternatively, sell 7050 if seen directly
Xerof
According to the Danes the commodity currencies are an accident waiting to happen
Martin says sell anything over 70 and sooner or later you'll make money. I tend to agree.
Yes I agree with the Danes this time, - the turn is not far away with the action playing around the Butterfly net and a polarity line assisting with resistance.
The points in brackets show my reasoning for last comments, but can also see the other possibility which you may be following Arco (Blue).
Thought my forming bearish butterfly had cleaner lines.[:I][:I]
http://img433.imageshack.us/img433/9...artleys0ox.png
Let me know if I'm way off the mark......
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes I see when you are coming from. Its very tempting but I try not to get too bogged down with too many incomplete patterns.
I am trying to work more on completed patterns and then I can calculate a target, so my selection will look different to yours.
There are 2 completed patterns within this chart, and the blue box is the target for reversal.
Marry that up wuth a few confirming indicators and Ganns yer uncle and Fannies yer aunt. ;)
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101105_185.gif
Thanks coach, very helpful
shorted at .6959
+20
will have to sleep tho.. so have a 30 pip trailing stop in place. hmm not much chance of making too much using that but it will minimize losses, and leave some exposure to the downside.
theres an article in the herald re NZ interest rates
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/st...ectID=10349785
and, from the platforms news feed :
Stops tripped under 0.6950 have sent [NZD/USD] lower in tandem with Aud/Usd, leaving the cross trapped in narrow ranges. Technical players will be eyeing the break of 0.6950, which marked the base of an ascending range, and will now be looking for further losses towards technical targets in the 0.6870 and 0.6895 areas. However, bids noted in the 0.6900-15 area will provide an initial obstacle to these hopes. Although a recent increase in Uridashi issuance has failed to provide the Kiwi with any significant prop, the downside is likely to become increasingly supported ahead of the Oct 27 rate meeting, at which a 25bps hike is widely expected. There is little on the data front, with ANZ job ads Weds, though the ANZ PMI due Thurs is likely to be the focus of significant interest.
Repelled very nicely from the Butterfly net. My auto short got hit overnight, so I am in - boots and all.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101205_205.gif
Well done Peat and Arco
Arco, is your second completed formation in the chart above an example of a gartley which mutated into a butterfly?
If so, I can see why one would need to be careful with standing as a buyer at the 'expected' gartley turn level. I guess thats why you prefer to have trailing stop entries once the first level is reached.
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes, most Butterflies go through the Gartley stage and that is where the danger lies. Just one good reason for care with entry unless you have other compelling evidence to confirm a possible reversal. (e.g Gann, EW, other structures).
arco
taken out with this bounce, for minimal gain.... aaargh what a pain
Surprisingly muted reaction to this little gem from Dr B
Perhaps the market has read through him - trying to lower currency expectations before he raises interest rates?Quote:
quote:The high exchange rate had also contributed to the current account deficit, by placing pressure on export sector revenues, whilst making imports relatively cheaper. Dr Bollard said the exchange rate appeared to have reached an unsustainable level. Overseas investors in New Zealand dollar instruments should also consider the downside scenario when making their investment decisions.
My formative alternatives posted 11/10 have reached the zone of decision....
Xeroff to the pub shortly
most people are thinkin that he will raise....
but if for some reason he doesnt, and there are a few indicators starting to show that it may not be necessary, then that would be unexpected and would cause the biggest reaction
but yeh trying to talk it down does suggest hes nervous about the ramifications of ramping up the yield.
shorted at .6954 another bite at the cherry
got out in the + but not much..... still theres always next week.
went out for a drink and missed my 30-40 target.... oh well.
seems like this has broken the down trendline but the upside cant be too great in my opinion.
have a good weekend everyone!!!!!!!
Welcome to a new week guys
This might be worth a short in the 7015 to 7050 zone if seen
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/8893/nzdusd6tv.png
Xerof
Despite stops being tripped above 0.7010 and 0.7020 there has not been and significant pick up in [NZD/USD]'s upside momentum. Technical players though will be eyeing the break of the upper bound of a descending range around 0.6990 as the signal for a further possible upleg towards a longer term trendline around 0.7040. An increase in yield related flows has been noted today as high yielders continue to return to favour following the interest rate jitters of earlier in the month. Nzd/Jpy in particular has lifted to new 8-year highs above 80.50, with this likely to continue ahead of Thursday's RBNZ rate decision when a 25bps hike, to 7.0%, is widely tipped. The Aud/Nzd cross, however, remains stuck in tight ranges. It may need a break below the 1.07 level here to signal renewed gains in the main pair.
Went long at 7007
Nice run sofar +32
Cheers
Slam
take your profits quick imho
Lots of resistance levels clustered overhead, between 60 and 90
Gartley formed, 78.6% retracement.....
http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/2946/nzdusd9pv.png
Sold a bit at 35, will sell again at 50
Probably what will happen is the trendlines will crack and the Gartley will evolve into a butterfly, but will give it a go[8D][8D]
Xerof
Closed for 28pips
scalping today:D
Cheers
Slam
Edit: Typo 28
Again here, I sold , still in currently +20
but heres an outlook from my platform, that disagrees -
[NZD/USD] has been knocked to sub-0.7000 levels in the Usd's rebound. Technical players will, though, be eyeing the 0.6985 range boundary which appeared to trigger solid gains on Thursday when it gave way. While this level holds intact such players are likely to attempt to establish new longs. While the resurgent Usd is causing the Kiwi problems, support is coming from the Nzd/Jpy cross which is currently around new 8-year highs in the upper 81s as Japanese investors seek yield. Given widespread expectations of an RBNZ rate hike on Oct 27, bidding this latter cross or selling Aud/Nzd would appear to be the best way to play expected Nzd strength.
chopped kiwi short yesterday for a miserable 25 pips - didn't like the fact that only interest in the market yesterday was Uridashi buying interest.
Will look to resell before MPS though, as market has priced 50 point hike in already
Xerof
Gann just above circa 7080 may halt further northbound progress.
Seems Major Gann has enlisted a new recruit, and may be able to stand his men down [8D][8D]
Quote:
quote:10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS KIWI DOLLAR AT UNSUSTAINABLE LEVEL, SHARP DEPRECIATION POSSIBLE
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS OVERSEAS INVESTORS HAVE EXCESSIVE FAITH AND SHOW IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE IN NZ DOLLAR
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS WOULD HOPE TO SEE GRADUAL DEPRECIATION IN NZ DOLLAR
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS SEES POSSIBILITY OF A HARD LANDING FOR NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS CONTINUED TIGHT GOVT. FISCAL POLICY NEEDED TO COUNTER IMBALANCED ECONOMY
Hi Xerof
It seems to have had an impact aready ......long red candle on the 30 min. I have short orders in above and just below.
arco
Updating the Butterfly position.
The old blue box is working now as resistance and there is the Gann resistance calculation circa 7080, so I dont expect to see any break through that.
2 Butterflies now working back to back, and south bound move imminent IMO.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505_156.gif
arco
Here's a chart I created yesterday but didn't get time to post.
As you will know, the action has already entered the potential reversal area with a overnight high of 7063.
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505a_202.gif
The Majors new recruit only firing blanks Arco - will now have to rely on Gann's army at 80.
To be fair on NCO Cullen, he has managed to knock the tops of a few of the NZD crosses.
Xerof
One last meagre dash north for freedom perhaps and then Gann may take NZD's guts for garters....
.........starter short on at 7070 in case NZD has the power to get near the major defences.
arco - twiddling my thumbs [^]