One of the more reliable sales forecasters is TroyTeslike on twitter. He has revised deliveries down to 400,000 this quarter, well below current market guesses. If he is right, annual deliveries will be about 1.3 million. The Chinese economy is not in a happy place at the moment, although the Government is still supporting "new energy vehicles". There are, of course, big geopolitical factors to consider as well.
The other big factor is how many in USA put off delivery this quarter in the hope of getting a tax incentive next year. Higher income earners may not get the tax break and those that placed orders a while ago probably locked in lower prices, so may still take delivery. Thursday earnings will be interesting.