Yes, I do have that honest streak in me.
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Vernon Small tweet at 7.25pm:
I think it's a bit early to call Labour being on the verge of extinction, W69. Even though I know you're only stirring :). Matthew Hooton is entitled to his own opinion. He was not entitled to fiddle with iPredict in National's favour before reporting on it, but he did (I saw the bets going on). That's not possible now, but if it had still been up and running like normal, I'd possibly have made a small fortune betting on Michael Wood's chances in the early stages.Quote:
Early votes give Wood 64.4% in Mt Roskill, which if sustained would be a remarkable result. CF Goff's 55.85 albeit with Greens and NZF in
Now try and contain yourself eZ, but Michael Wood is going to win.
By a long way.
79% counted
Wood (Lab) 67%
Parmar (Nat) 27%
Turnout is down, so the electorate majority will be lower for Labour, but those percentage differences are huge. They didn't like Parmar, trusted Labour's Michael Wood more.
Anyway what was on the Nation with Andrew Little, FP, was it the 60 second joke bit? He warmed up in the second half of it.
If he's got a personality, he sure kept it well hidden.
But I've been wondering about your conflicting statements.
You claim that Little will stay as leader cos there's been enough changes for a decade. Then you say you don't think Labour is in the dying stages.
You know as well as I do these two statements cannot both be accurate and co-exist. One must be wrong. Personally I think Little will go, but you may think it will be the party that goes. Which is more likely in your opinion?
No, I think the Labour Party will rebound in 2017, partly because of the 'three terms in - three terms out' rule, partly because of better organisation, and partly because they will have kept with the same leader long enough for voters to remember who he/she is. I think all of the other leaders we burned through, would have been fine too. They are just leaders, they are not the entire caucus or party. Voters think quite shallowly though, on average. That's how we ended up with John Key as PM.
You know all this of course, and one sure way of derailing Labour at this point would be to change leaders again. They're not that stupid, and they have also finally rediscovered door-knocking as a way of getting votes.
Michael Wood on Q&A was quite up front about that, I think they didn't pay too much attention to building a database of voters across the electorate and wasting time on that, they just went out and knocked on heaps of doors, and had good sensible Labour policies to back it up with.
There has been lately, look it up.
There was only one journalist who predicted that Parmar would do badly.
http://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-...in-mt-roskill/
A low emotional IQ, just like John Key, only not so good at hiding it.
The SST had the tiniest of references to the by-election this morning, on page 2 under another heading. Very poor I thought, they couldn't have done less with the story. Rod Oram had another thought-provoking article about John Key's tendency to play with the figures to support National's arguments.