Psssssssssssst can you see leasing companies giving an airline a rent/lease holiday.?
More chance getting a cash refund from an airline,.lol.
ps Didn't David Richwhite and Michael Fay go into aircraft leasing.
Printable View
This sort of says it all about the credibility of these people. How can he say in the same sentence that they have ample liquidity for "the foreseeable future" and that an additional equity is needed "within a year". Right there he is saying his "foreseeable future" is much less than a year. Then suggest they need to sell planes, with 80-90% of the World{s fleet grounded and much of it up for firesale !! How pathetic.
Beagle I agree with your earlier post. Not only are they in financial ruin dependant on the Government, their brand loyalty is also shot. Customers will not have any loyalty to a small domestic airline that has recently treated their loyalty worse than most overseas carriers when the **** really hit the fan !
For what its worth I have listened into AIR's investor conference calls after each annual and half year result for many years and Andy Bowley has never really impressed me. At the best of times he asks very average questions of management, (Maybe on those occasions he had consumed 4 strong coffee's that morning). In short, I don't rate him and comments about selling aircraft are obviously absurd.
Markus Curly of UBS is much brighter and he recently estimated AIR are burning cash at the rate of $211 a month, PLUS redundancy, restructuring costs and airfare refunds. I assume ~ $40m per month to close out fuel collar positions is another extra cost on top of all that. The whole $900m loan from the Govt will be well gone BEFORE 31 July 2020, you read it here first ! I think they could be forced to do a massive capital raise as early as next month or if not in May, June 2020 would be highly likely ! They'll certainly be "flying on a near empty tank" by the end of June if they don't.
AIR on a crash course with economic reality, its as simple as that. Investors should adopt the brace position for the inevitable VERY hard landing.
Another interesting Capital item on the future list announced 27 May 2019 - just last year here:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335068
AirNZ announces multi-billion-dollar investment in aircraft
"The first of these highly fuel-efficient aircraft will join the Air New Zealand fleet in 2022"
and some more here in the depths of the following announcement made on 22 Aug 2019:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/339567
"Air NZ announces profit of $374 million, maintains dividend"
"The airline will also take delivery of six ATR aircraft and three Airbus A320/321 NEO aircraft in the 2020 financial year, which will provide continued growth, fuel efficiency and cost benefits on the Tasman and Pacific Islands network. An additional Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner will also join the fleet this year."
What are the likely costs of exiting these, if no longer required or the orders are slashed ?
It doesn't look any better for the national Airline sitting virtually broke and on Govt Life Support lines just to make it through the next 12-18 months ..
Refer to Note 19 of the AIR 2019 Annual Report:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...567/305893.pdf
"Future operating lease commitments
Aircraft leases payable*
Airline Leases Payable 2019 - $ 767 MILLION ; 2018 - $ 907 MILLION
Total operating lease commitments 2019 - $1,058 MILLION - 2018: 1,201 MILLION
* Includes lease commitments for one Airbus A320 NEO aircraft and one Boeing 787-9 aircraft due to be delivered in the 2020
financial year.
** Aircraft leases payable less than 1 year includes $14 million of commitments for short-term leases which provide cover for Boeing
787-9 engine issues (30 June 2018: $18 million).
Subject to negotiation, certain aircraft operating leases give the Group the right to renew the lease."
Perhaps they do own a few of the older Bubbles on Wings outright (outside Operating Leases) for putting around on minor routes
off the beaten track, but the hefty amounts reported under this note tend to suggest some fairly hefty Operating Lease Commitments which wont be for the decades old flying machines on their last legs stacked up in the back of the Hanger..
It's interesting that at balance date 2019, AIR had $ 242 MILLION of Current Property & Airline lease payments due to be stumped up within the year, without throwing further New Airplane Leases costs on top of this ..
With roughly a $ Billion Ca$h readies, it's difficult to see that any new Airline/Plane additions could be anything other than further new Operating Leases being added to the existing pile ...
AIR, I believe, own more aircraft than they lease. [ see planespotters.net ]
However the ones they own will generally have been paid for, in part, with borrowed money to the tune of (guessing) 40-50% of their value.
As for value, well it is a buyers market at the moment.
The medium term result is obvious..should be timely action so in the end it is retained and minimise amount of crown money used.
I hear they're trying to store their owned aircraft to preserve them from any more wear and tear, and to preserve their value, while the few aircraft that are still flying are mostly leased. Makes sense to depreciate the aircraft they don't own, yet still have to pay the leases on.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...+27+April+2020
A new owner of Virgin could end up with very cheap aircraft and dirt cheap leases which could give them quite a significant competitive advantage. I imagine crew would also be keen to work on more competitive terms and the spot price for fuel is currently at multi decade lows. The big three costs of operation could be significantly lower than for existing airlines with legacy crew, aircraft and fuel hedging issues.