Still on track for FY $480m or >$4.75 eps
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Still on track for FY $480m or >$4.75 eps
That's what we like from Mainfreight: Boring (no surprises) and satisfactory results and outstanding communication in very interesting times :):
Very satisfactory indeed :-)
Fair value is somewhere around $100 per share? Low 20s forward p/e multiple?
Or am i wrong?
Depends on the future, which nobody knows. If they keep their current earnings CAGR of nearly 19, than my "fair value" would be slightly above $120.
So, tell me, how much they will grow their earnings over the next 10 years and I tell you what their fair value might be.
Need to add though, that market typically disagrees with my view of fair value ... sometimes it pays more and sometimes it pays less.
Anyway - $100 sounds conservative to me.
Don is optimistic about the future. This from a Herald article today:
“When you see us investing $700m in the next two years in our network infrastructure, then I suppose you can take from that the confidence we have in our business and the opportunities ahead as we grow the business around the world.” “And the reality is we are still relatively small in those offshore markets with a lot more opportunity for market share growth. Our team is focused on making sure they find that growth and provide us with more opportunities to grow further,” he said.
Back down after Fridays big lift !
Geeze up and down like a norty girl's drawers .. can anyone identify who sneezed for this volatility ? :)
There was this article out this morning, wouldnt have through it would move SP? Maybe
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130...ght-rates-fall
.....Last week, Mainfreight posted a 66% jump in first-half net profit to $217 million and analysts expect the company to report a record profit for the full year to the end of March 2023. But profit is expected to drop in the 2024 financial year, the first decline in nine years.
.... Analysts expect the company to report a record profit this financial year, but are forecasting a decline next year, which would be the first drop in net profit since the 2015 financial year.Craigs Investment Partners expects Mainfreight to report a profit of $429m this year, up from $356m last year. It expects profit to drop to $369m next year.
In a note titled “Clouds on the horizon,” Craigs analyst Wade Gardiner said that while it was early days, he expected a declining trend through the second half of this year, reflecting deteriorating economic growth, and as the impact of lower freight rates bite and the company tracks a strong period in the second half of last year.
..Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley expects profit to hit $436m this financial year and slip to $418m next year, noting the gains being made in the company’s transport and warehousing divisions would be offset by a softer air and ocean performance.
Bowley said profit growth was slowing from “extraordinarily strong levels” over the past two years but the company was now facing declining sea freight rates while economic headwinds would dampen customer demand.
... Craigs has an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock, while Forsyth Barr rates it ‘outperform’.
Clearly Jonette's analysis is more of a driver of the SP, rather than a stuff article mentioning how MFT is the most expensive stock on the NZX