Starting to look like it?
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2040 according to Luxon today in his pre-Budget speech.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-live-christopher-luxon-to-deliver-pre-budget-speech-in-auckland/EGWYP3ZQPZFVNPPZSQ2TXUFJGE/
Luxon said that in 2040, New Zealanders would have a “more dynamic and productive economy” where New Zealanders returned from overseas, rather than leave; better public services, and a “comprehensive response to climate change, both on track to achieve our ambitious emissions targets, and resilient to the challenges of a more volatile world”.
Was in HGH after I bought during the selldown by George Kerr/PGC all those years ago at between 52c to 82c. George of course sold out to the ChCh 'mafia' for 56c. Was very tasty taking a 6 digit gain years later when HGH traded above $2.00.
I have been closely following HGH again since I sold out at $1.78 (took a marginal 3c hit on the way out on my second foray back into the stock) and have just started buying back.
Have a look at the chart below of the banking stocks (WBC, ANZ, NAB, CBA and HGH) and one can observe that they move in unison overall, reflecting the dynamics at play (economic, interest rates and profitability) in the Australasian banking industry.
HGH was following the pattern until late 2023/early 2024 when it became clear to the market that the Challenger Bank acquisition was going ahead and HGH was going to have to do another CR ($200m was raised in 2022) to fund the acquisition. One can see that while the other banks' share prices started recovering, HGH's sp continued to drop.
Hardly surprising as two $200m CRs ($400m) within 18 months are beyond the appetite of shareholders to absorb.
So we are now in the post CR and post Challenger Bank acquisition trading period. There are the flippers who took up the rights and underwrote the CR at $1.00 who are selling out for a quick trade (good on them) or cutting their loss.
I do not expect the selling to continue for much longer (another week perhaps) as it makes little sense to sell out at under $1.00 although the underwriters' break-even price is more like 97c (3% underwriting fee).
I am calling 96c the bottom and expect HGH's sp to track back towards what the other banks are trading at in the next 12 months. I would be disappointed (and wrong) if the sp does not hit $1.25 by end of 2024.
Now fire away your arrows and throw your rocks. Just remember though that I sold at over $2.00 and then, bailed out at $1.78 in my second foray and am buying back at $1.00 +/-.
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/H...oid2VlayJ9fX0-
Good post (#17479) Balance. The chart certainly seems to indicate that over the past month or two HGH has been oversold.
I looked at the on-market price action today and thought that after this week, maybe even quicker, we may not see sub $1 again unless there is adverse news.
HGH needs to bed in the last two acquisitions (Stockco and Challenger Bank) fully before the market will embrace the stock again and value it in line with its banking peer. Will be 2025/26 before that happens imo. Watch then for the PE and valuation multiple expansion which is of course the biggest driver of any share price.
Just an observation as well for those who are contemplating HGH as an investment - the real action does not start until ASX opens. Fair bit of the placement stock went to Australian institutions and they appear to be the flippers, selling the placement stock for a quick gain.
I think you're playing different games here. If one player just wants to double or triple their money in a few years, PE expansion is likely how that's going to happen. If the other player wants to hold forever, or at least a decade of two, it's irrelevant other than offering occasional buying opportunities.
Earnings growth + PE expansion = sp performance. It's that simple.
But don't mind SR.
He believes stock going down is a good thing and OCA using ever more debt to buy ever more expensive developments (which they cannot sell) and pay dividends is a great strategy. :t_up: