Appointment was announced 1 May 2017 when the SP was $2.50. I'd speculate your theory has a lot of merit. Happy holder, still trades on a very sensible PE unlike a LOT of other N.Z. stocks.
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So the govt. owns 51% and overseas owns 39%....that just leaves 10% for us poor old kiwi peasants:mellow:. ps wonder how many more of those overseaers will want to buy?
9% mate as at 31 March 2017. Wouldn't surprise me if that was down to ~ 7% by now.