Very poor use of the word "expensive".
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NPBT Trend F23
1st 16 weeks of year +86% v pcp
Next 10 weeks of year +43% v pcp
Next 5 weeks of year +11% v pcp
Then last 26 weeks of year -14% v pcp
First 3 numbers as per company announcements / for last 26 weeks taking full year profit to 450m
Is there a trend(+86& / +43% / +11% / -14%) showing up here?
If so market is wondering how long will it continue
I don’t do a Truckometer forecast yet, cause Waka Kotahi are too slack about publishing raw data. I use it for GDP prediction and MFT view, along with a USA one I also publish to help MFT knowledge.
however, WK do now auto publish BY FAR the biggest Telemetry sites, south Auckland at Drury and north Wellington at Tawa. That gives me ok confidence in October readings - up to 31st published in the month here;
https://jonette.co.nz/mft/truckometer.html
GDP shock of 2.0% compared to economists forecasts at 0.8 (RBNZ) or avg banks at 0.9% suggests they need a meter like this
I recently had a package sent down from the North Island on Toll/Courier Post (not my choice). It travelled around a bit, finally moving back and forth between Christchurch and Sheffield for a couple of weeks. Rang them up. In neither company was it possible to talk to anyone other than the telephone operator, who knew nothing. Whenever I've rung Mainfreight, I've always been able to talk to actual people at the depot. They've even given me a contact number for the driver. That's a big difference in customer service, hopefully they never lose that.
Off topic from MFT, but linked to Jonette's post. The graphs in the link below show how much GDP growth potential we have remaining in the tourism sector.
Tap has barely been turned back on
https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...-october-2022/
MFT trading on a 15 P/E. Wow when is this downtrend going to end?
MFT is a quality gem on the NZX. A proven performer. Superb management that also how heaps of shares.
What a great buy right now! But how low can it go?
Net margin last year was 6.8%
Long run avg closer to 4.5%
Maybe the business keeps on growing but the bottom line doesnt go anywhere for a couple of years
When revenues keep rising due to Organic growth not just creaming prices due to special circumstances then overall margins also increase due to fixed costs getting diluted over bigger balance sheet .
As MFT is growing its revenues by adding new geographies thus even if freight get fully normalised still they will have higher revenues yoy thus higher margins are here to stay ...maybe not this high but surely over 5% ...imo
MFT is really a golden egg to get into ...maybe it can go lower ...but eventually it will come out stronger then before ...DYOR based on company history and performance and their ethos
Transport industry traditionally does well coming out of a recession ... and MFT is a particularly well run company in this industry.
We still might have some ups and downs over the next 6 months or so, but yes, after that I do expect them to do well, particularly in the later part of 2023.