This from 22 May. Seems I caught the wrong train. O well, travelling is sometimes better than arriving at a destination.
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Don't worry, remember Balance called the bottom perfectly.
Monthly chart, with only a few days left to go, is interesting showing an indecision Doji Star (very tight high/low spread) centred at $1.01. It could go either way and easily interpreted as a bottom but the probably is greater that it is not, more than it is. It's what happens from here that matters. More on this probability here https://thepatternsite.com/DojiStarBull.html
It could also be a Morning Star doji which has a much greater probability of upside movement in price, but as I said, it's what happens from here that matters. https://thepatternsite.com/MorningDojiStar.html
Here's the monthly chart https://invst.ly/14-i0c
So BaaBaa what you’re telling us is the price will either go up or down? :)
Thanks for your encouragement, depending on how you interpret the monthly price candle, it's either more likely to go down, or less likely to go up. Lol. So what's your interpretation of the candle? Not that it matters, like I said, it's what happens next that counts.
Trading is fun, it's in the now, we have access to all sorts of insights, it's just how and when we interpret them ... and what we do about it. Or not.
This post from 20 May. Another failed prediction. Is anyone making any money on the NZX currently? Even the sharetrader competition participants are mostly underwater, often significantly so.
Of course your picks may not match your portfolio. But there doesn't seem to be any expectation by Mr Market that Nicola will help out tomorrow either. And inflation is now UP in Australia again which, given tax cuts are said to be offered, may become a trend here too? Then where to for share prices?
IMO Aussie & foreign markets might be seeing more joy.
The local sentiment even for what ordinarily might look reasonable makes one think twice
The growing sea of red locally, a skeleton NZX board littered with so many dead, dying & potentially injured outfits (cushioned by all the fancy NZX funds to help divert attention away) all reeling in the hard economic conditions makes other markets look a breath of fresh air :)
How many dividend stocks have not declared or reduced ? How many more are likely to stall Div's ?
How many are reliant on dividend income ?
How much spending will go to or out of NZX stocks in a struggling post & current COL hit goldfish bowl, how much will be diverted to mortgages & loans, or servicing them at higher rates. How many will be ultra cautious and stay away, and wait & see ? How many will put off buying new assets, cars. appliances ?
Is the dip over or just starting towards something like we saw with onslaught of Covid in March/April 2020 ?
Here is a great article explaining why this from Balance is totally wrong and has very little effect at all. Strongly suggest reading it, it's not long.
https://www.lindselltrain.com/applic...April_2024.pdf
The article makes some fair points.
I have come into investing in shares pretty late in life, in the Covid wave of investors, and the biggest lesson I have started to learn is patience…several stocks have taught me some hard lessons, lol…A2 being one of them…
I would have been better off in the bank at 6.1% but the lessons I have learned are valuable too..
Good stuff Bikeguy, if you understand the points in the article you are doing well as a relative newbie. Of course changes in PE drive everything short term but very difficult if not impossible to predict and time.
Yes patience is everything in this game, focus on the business not the share price.
Anything people are talking about at the BBQ, stay away.
Perhaps you would have been better off in the bank even if rates were Negative 10%?