Originally Posted by
BlackPeter
I guess the relevant question would be - how much of this housing price drop is already priced into OCA and the other retirement villages? Given that some of them dropped already by 30% plus to their recent peak, market might be positively surprised if house prices just drop by e.g. 20% (which would be less than 2/3rd of last years gain).
And lets not forget - we start to open the borders (sort of) for the first time in two years and more than a million Kiwis overseas locked out of NZ might want to come home. Will be interesting to see what this does to our housing market?
Remember - markets are forward looking :t_up:
Ah yes - and just remember how good the analysts have been in the past to predict house prices ... while they predicted 10 out of the last 2 slumps, they often don't even get the direction right (though if they say "up", they are much more likely to be correct, then if they say "down" ;) - I guess that's why analysts like to be optimists :) ;