Àpparently the Fed going to pivot tomorrow …..thinkman on tv said ‘definitely pivot’
Printable View
Àpparently the Fed going to pivot tomorrow …..thinkman on tv said ‘definitely pivot’
Many staunch Bears are failing to see writing on the wall ....prospects of massive short squeeze in US markets
This downtrend started with Oil bull trend ...Oil trend has reversed surely ...Bears should see that as sign of changing scene
For me I dont want FED to loosen any stance ...harder they go better it will be for markets eventually ...We want this Inflation genie to be bottled fully ....Recession is not easy to happen in current scene ...even if they happen , will be shallow and easy to cure . Need Kill INFLATION !
1 % increase will be best outcome but FED may do 0.75 % only !!!
Some Media hinting that the Equity Bear Market has run its course and maybe bottoming out.
My view is it does not appear so, not yet anyway..My favourite indicator is Dr Copper which says the Equity Market bottoms out soon** after Copper bottoms out (** anytime from 1.5 to 6 months later)..
Dr Copper has been a very reliable leading predictor.....
Today Copper has shown no signs of bottoming..There is short term upward noise which is exciting the "I predicted the bottom first" brigade who are scrambling for media fame. Beware that these are the same people that say "I predicted this crash" when the next capitulation event occurs...:D
As Equities are in a Bear Market Cycle there will be relief waves of optimism followed by the next disappointing wave of gloom. I believe we are in one of those relief rallies at the moment as Dr Copper hasn't told me anything yet.
Attachment 14014
Bonza of a day on US markets post Fed talk …and that Waste Management result showing there can’t be a recession as so much more rubbish etc is being collected
Where’s bull ….missing in action keeping us up to date ….. too busy trading the rise no doubt
NZX and ASX will be happy places today
I fully understand that some bear market rallies make it look so good that people jump in and then capitulation happens ...lol
FPH has no where else to go but up ...eventually it will cross $ 25 after its half year results maybe ...its marathon runner so will try to pace its run ...
IMO what markets liked about this FED announcement as written by me before also ....FED is very clear what they need do and do it fast ...Kill Inflation at any cost and ASAP ...no other concerns matter
This may lead to short term pain for stocks but longer term horizon is rosier and market is already seeing that ...6-9 months ahead rate cuts
I guess the rise in stockmarkets and gold is due to an expectation that the central bank pivot is not far away due to the feds rate increase. FOMO?
If there is a recession looming and potentially company earnings falling maybe this is a bit premature. If the bottom half of society is tapped out due to inflation unless it is helicopter money to the masses like in covid, will earnings bounce back? I guess it will depend on how the current inflation plays out. If it disappears quickly then all good for the helicopters, although the transitory nature of the current CPI inflation is still in question.
Investing for currency destruction (capital gain) rather than earnings and cashflow has been a winner for a while now.