I'm not sure if the name's for real packers but I do know that the artical itself is definately a rehash of one of Marc Fabers interveiws published in 2002.
Alias's and plaugarism - what else are they teaching at uni these days.
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I'm not sure if the name's for real packers but I do know that the artical itself is definately a rehash of one of Marc Fabers interveiws published in 2002.
Alias's and plaugarism - what else are they teaching at uni these days.
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He he, Mick. Having seen some recent uni work, I have an insight into plagiarism and university.
Hand in hand.
Still, thanks for the article.
Cheers.
Rupert,
Peak oil theory is real and proven i.e. production within the USA peaked in 1972. Oil is a finite commodity, one day it will peak and then start to decline, I dont think any petroleum engineer would dispute that.
The problem is estimating when peak will arrive. The pessimists predict it will happen shortly, the USGS suggests it wont happen till around 2035.
Either way it is a real problem that most of us will have to deal with in our lifetime!
I suggest you read a few peak oil books and crunch some numbers yourself, the outcome I would hazard to guess is a retraction that peak oil is rubbish talk.
I'v been reading about this peak oil theory for 2-3 yrs now Rupert and I am a believer.
As deisel has pointed out the US oil production peaked in the early 70's which was almost exactly 40 yrs after discoveries peaked in the early 30's
World wide discoveries peaked in the mid 60's.
40 yrs has lasped since then and that is the main reason why so many are predicting that world peak production will occur during this decade.
Other reasons include:
-no giant feilds discovered in the last 35 yrs despite very high oil prices in the 70's - 80
-major oil co's are increasing their reserves by aquiring other co's (they are not finding new oil)
-increasing demand from developing countries (china, india)
-advances in technology are increasing rate of production from existing feilds but not increasing the total amount of oil that can be recovered over the life of the feild which will lead to speeding up the rate of depletion.
A world wide reccession, which would dampen demand, is the one thing that could delay peak oil for a number of yrs, IMO
Ironically, high oil prices would be the most likely cause of a world wide reccession.
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By Niu Shuping
Wed Jun 29, 4:53 AM ET
BEIJING (Reuters) - China will produce far more steel in 2005 than previously forecast, generating an unexpected surplus almost as big as the national capacity of Germany, estimates from a top agency showed on Wednesday.
Slowing growth in domestic steel demand, mainly from the property sector, was responsible, said the State Council Development Research Center, the cabinet's think-tank, spelling bad news for global steel makers dreading a tide of Chinese exports.
But the surplus is not going abroad just yet. Exports and imports would be about balanced, the think-tank said.
China, the world's largest steel maker and consumer, would produce 348 million tonnes of steel products in 2005, 17.7 percent more than last year, it said in a report carried in the China Securities Journal.
Demand would grow 10.2 percent to 305 million tonnes. The surplus, 43 million tonnes, compares with Germany's 2003 crude steel output of 45 million tonnes.
The think-tank's output forecast was well above the February estimate from the official China Iron and Steel Association, just over 300 million tonnes.
Giving that estimate to Reuters in February, association chief Xie Qihua forecast no surplus: demand would be about the same or even a little more than output.
But the think-tank said: "Demand from major steel-consuming industries keeps on growing steadily, but the growth will slow."
The surplus had pressured domestic steel prices in the second quarter of the year and steel prices would continue to fall in the short-term.
The association said prices for some steel products had fallen so far that they were now below cost, and that could curb steel production in the future months.
"There are still lots of uncertainities in the coming months," said Li Shijun, a deputy secretary-general of the industry association. "Some mills will stop producing if steel prices keep on falling."
BREAKING EVEN
Li said mills producing long products, typically used in construction, were only breaking even.
Nine major steel mills, including Baoshan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd., the country's biggest, asked the government on Sunday to limit imports of low-end steel products.
They also urged the industry to support prices by increasing inventories and doing maintenance, interrupting production.
The association said last week that prices of some steel products in the second quarter had been as much as 20 percent lower than in the first. Production in the first five months of the year had basically matched demand, it added.
Government controls over fixed-asset investment and property had hurt steel demand, the think-tank said.
Ship-building, container making as well as the railway sector were major contributors to the growth, it said.
"Construction, home appliances and most machinery-building industries will continue to sustain steady development but the tendency for growth will slow down."
Imports of iron ore, the raw material to make steel, would rise 25 percent to 260 million tonnes in 2005. Domestic production of iron ore would hit 300 million tonnes, it said without giving comparative figures.
The report said imports of steel products were likely to fall 26.8 percent to 21.34 million tonnes while exports would increase by 45.7 percent from the year-earlier period to 21 million tonnes.
China was a net steel exporter in November and December last year, but it has yet to become a net exporter on an annual basis.
By KELLY OLSEN, AP Business Writer
Wed Jun 29, 4:27 AM ET
SEOUL, South Korea - Surging oil prices could curb Asia's economies, with some analysts predicting the fast-growing region — heavily dependent on oil imports — could slip into a recession if prices don't recede.
With oil prices about 50 percent higher than a year ago, the warnings are starting to mount.
South Korea's central bank said higher crude prices could shave 0.7 percentage points off economic growth this year and raise consumer prices. The Philippines has warned of a "heavy toll." Officials in Japan, the world's No. 1 oil importer, and Malaysia are voicing concerns.
"High oil prices are already weighing on growth in Asian economies," Andy Xie, economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, wrote in a report this week. "If oil prices do not recede, Asia could slide into recession in the short term."
After rising to a record close of $60.54 a barrel on Monday, crude oil prices fell back some, granting the region's importers a reprieve. In Asian trading Wednesday, light, sweet crude for August delivery was down a cent at $58.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but traders said prices could easily test the $60 mark again.
Asia's heavy reliance on oil imports, mostly from the Middle East, means higher crude prices quickly translate into higher costs for a wide range of companies, from airlines and steelmakers to computer makers and fisheries. Consumers will also have to divert more of their spending to cover higher utility and gasoline bills. The overall effect could seriously restrain economic growth.
Also, Asian oil consumers have had to pay slightly higher prices because there is less competition among suppliers than in other parts of the world. This so-called "Asian premium" can run as high as $1.50 a barrel.
But the region's economic diversity — ranging from industrial behemoths like Japan, South Korea and China to smaller economies like Singapore and Hong Kong and advanced consumer societies like Australia __ means the oil price impact can vary substantially.
Officials in Malaysia, where dozens of electronics companies have factories, are worried that high fuel prices could slow gross domestic product growth to 5-6 percent this year from 7.1 percent last year.
Likewise, growth in South Korea, home to a booming tech sector, could decline from its previous projection of 4 percent this year, the Bank of Korea warned Tuesday.
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo said the oil spike threatens "to take a heavy toll on the entire nation."
While those economic projections are far from suggesting a recession, economist Xie warns that the impact of higher Dubai crude, an Asian benchmark, can already be seen in Thailand and South Korea.
Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Monday said that " GDP will definitely be affected by the oil price rise."
Export-dependent Singapore and Japan appear to be more concerned about the fallout from a global slowdown triggered by higher energy costs. Singaporean officials predict economic growth of between 3-5 percent this year, down sharply from nearly 8.5 percent in 2004.
"There may be a gradual indirect effect on the Japanese economy," Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda, the top government spokesman, said recently about the oil price hikes. "We are worried there may be a major negative impact on the world economy."
Japan's suffering from past oil crises has forced the nation to become more fuel-efficient, with factories making fuel conservation a priority to lower production costs and consumer electronics manufacturers hyping the energy-saving merits of their air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines.
And while surging oil prices certainly aren't welcome at a time when Japan is struggling to emerge from a decade-long slump, some automakers speculate that the turn of events could boost interest in their new fuel-efficient cars.
China, however, is cushioned by its state-owned oil companies from most swings in world oil
MUSICAL CHAIRS
by Mike Hoy
June 30, 2005
We have entered what I feel to be, a very interesting time period in the precious metals and natural resource markets. Never have I seen so many companies reporting such excellent results from their work programs and getting absolutely no respect in the market.
I attribute this to two basic reasons; (1) the market is limited in the supply of new capital available to invest in these stocks and (2) the potential buyers of these stocks have absolutely no motivation to bid them up.
The opportunities are real but the supplies of available funds are strictly limited to what the players already have committed in the market. There is a big reluctance on the part of investors to commit new money as they are not at all pleased with the returns of their current investments. This is like playing musical chairs where the players are there but nobody is stepping up to the plate until they feel they absolutely have too. They are all going around in circles doing very little because of the poor returns, performance and lack of liquidity in what they already own; in short they have no desire or motivation.
As a result of investors lack of funds or reluctance to commit new funds we are seeing the market eat itself up from within. We are seeing investors pruning their portfolios of, what they feel are the weak or undesirable stocks, in favor of the new stocks they want to own. The problem with this is the fact that the bids are lacking to give them the liquidity to sell without driving the price of the stocks down. This is giving the market, in whole, a downward spiral where the basic fundamentals for owning stocks are taking a back seat to the fact that many stocks are being sold strictly because they offer the owners liquidity in which to use to purchase these new ventures. In other words we are seeing investors part with their better quality stocks because those are the stocks that they are finding bids and liquidity in. The ironic part to this is the fact that this selling is keeping a lid on the stocks that should be going up.
Leadership is terribly lacking in this market as stocks in general are not advancing in relation to the positive news that the companies are releasing. When companies are releasing news on drilling programs where the results are exceptional and the stocks barely make a sustainable move forward; I have to wonder what the trigger will be to change the lackadaisical nibbling buying habits of timid investors to the bold venturesome risk takers that will inevitably emerge at the end of this malaise. In the not-to-distant future, stocks will again begin to react to the positive news releases and investors will be very surprised at what they have missed out on. Kind of like being the only one without a chair when the music stops.
Frustration and lack of faith are the predominant and guiding ingredients that are ruling the roost today. Some investors are tired, bored, frustrated or simply do not care. I feel sorry for these people because I feel they are missing one of the greatest opportunities to load up on stocks at prices they may never see again.
As for me, I have identified several stocks that I want to take positions in and I am putting bids in below the current market price and building positions as shares come along. It is very difficult to buy size as you have to take what you can get; patience is definitely a virtue on some of these new positions. My big reward will be a significant rise in these stocks when the market does turn around. Likewise, I must be patient with the lack of bids in the stocks that I am looking to prune out of my portfolios; many of the stocks that I am looking to sell are stocks that I really don’t want to sell but stocks that I feel will underperform the new stocks that I want to buy. If my thinking is correct I will be able to buy back my old positions, if I choose, with a lot more money thereby giving me a greater position in the end.
This is a very important point in time as many investors have completely overlook
Revamped CRB index
Adam Hamilton
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_diges...ton070805.html
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Bloomberg News
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Oil, Copper Rise as Yuan Gain to Boost China Demand (Update5)
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil and copper rose on expectations China will boost consumption of raw materials after the country revalued the yuan, making commodities priced in dollars cheaper to import.
``We expect Chinese demand for commodities and especially for oil to increase,'' said Tobias Merath, a strategist with Credit Suisse in Zurich. ``Since commodities are traded in U.S. dollars, a yuan appreciation makes them more affordable for Chinese consumers.''
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the largest oil refiner in Asia, and Jiangxi Copper Co., China's biggest producer of the metal, are among companies that will benefit from lower import costs. China is the largest oil consumer after the U.S. and the biggest nickel buyer after Japan.
Cheaper raw materials may accelerate demand already up from last year with the expansion of China's economy, which grew 9.5 percent in the second quarter and helped fuel a four-year surge in commodity prices. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities rose to 24-year high in March. Oil reached a record $62.10 a barrel on July 7, and copper touched a 16-year high last month.
China will value the yuan against a basket of currencies, the central bank said on its Web site yesterday. The new yuan rate strengthens the currency by 2.1 percent to 8.11 per U.S. dollar immediately, the People's Bank of China said. Until now, the yuan had been pegged at about 8.3 per dollar.
Stimulate Demand
``Anything that makes commodities cheaper for China will stimulate demand,'' said Nick Moore, a metals analyst at ABN Amro Holding NV in London. ``The revaluation is a lot smaller than expected. We were hoping for 6 percent.''
Some executives don't expect the change in the exchange rate to spark a significant jump in demand.
``A 2 percent revaluation is tokenism,'' said Daniel DiMicco, chief executive officer of Nucor Corp., the second- largest U.S. steel producer. ``I'm encouraged by the fact that they did something, but I think it was done more to appease folks.''
China's decision also didn't boost commodity prices yesterday. The CRB index fell 0.9 percent, the biggest drop in three weeks, to 300.76, led by declines in grains, copper and energy prices.
Crude oil futures for September delivery rose 27 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $57.40 a barrel at 10:17 a.m. Singapore time in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
No Big Deal
``China now has more buying power to satisfy its appetite for commodities,'' said Mike Armbruster, co-founder of Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Laguna Hills, California. ``The China story is big news but I'm doubtful it will completely alter the landscape in the crude oil market.''
The oil-import bill for China rose 42 percent to $15.2 billion in the first half, the state news agency Xinhua reported on July 11.
``A yuan revaluation would bring oil prices to record highs,'' said A.F. Alhajji, an energy economist and associate professor of economics at Ohio Northern University. ``While no one knows for sure how much China's oil demand would increase as a result of a yuan revaluation, the current tight oil market indicates that oil producers cannot meet any incremental demand, which would force oil prices even higher.''
Every 1 percent appreciation may increase the 2005 net income of China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec, by 3.5 percent, Fan Cheuk Wan, head of China research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Hong Kong said in a note to clients May 9.
Substantial Savings
A revaluation is ``good news for us because we buy oil in U.S. dollars,'' said Huang Wensheng, a spokesman for Beijing- based Sinopec. About ``21 percent of our oil is from domestic sources and 79 percent is imported. It will mean substantial savings for us.''
Copper futures for September delivery rose 1.45 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $1.5845 a pound in electronic trading on the Comex division of the New
From The AUSTRALIAN
Oil prices spike infrastructure
By Shane Wright
August 03, 2005
HIGH oil prices are underpinning another surge in infrastructure investment that could continue for years to come, a new report has found.
The Access Economics-Delta Electricity investment monitor found an 11.1 per cent increase since March in the value of projects on the drawing board or under construction.
Access put the total value of projects being considered at $375 billion, of which $95 billion worth was under construction.
The total value of possible projects rose 20.9 per cent to $124.8 billion, while the value of committed projects jumped 26.5 per cent to $31.4 billion.
The value of all projects is now 15.9 per cent up on where it was a year ago.
Access associate director David Rumbens said state governments had sunk money into major infrastructure projects in recent months.
But it was the energy sector, driven by soaring oil prices, that looks set to keep Australia's recent lift in infrastructure investment moving forward.
"Strong energy demand is firming plans for large LNG projects in Western Australia and the Northern Territory," he said.
"While high oil prices hurt consumers at the bowser, Australia as a net energy exporter gets some benefits through higher profits and investment.
"If prevailing conditions continue, it may well be energy developments that see a fourth wide drive growth into the investment cycle into the future."
Access found the value of proposed infrastructure projects in Western Australia grew 15.1 per cent in the June quarter to more than $103 billion.
There was also a surge in Victoria (up 15.6 per cent to $79 billion), Queensland (up 14 per cent to $68.5 billion) and Tasmania (up eight per cent to $7.5 billion).
Infrastructure investment in both NSW and Victoria is being led by transport projects, while mining-related activities are pushing work in Queensland and WA.
Access said growth in commercial building is easing as growth in the domestic economy slows, partly due to the cool housing market.