Major Gann @ 7080 appears to have scared off the advance with a high of 7071.
I amended my entry to 7075 which didnt get hit, and finally went short on my trailing entry at 7053.
Currently +33
Just a weeny bit more for the Piggy Bank
arco
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Major Gann @ 7080 appears to have scared off the advance with a high of 7071.
I amended my entry to 7075 which didnt get hit, and finally went short on my trailing entry at 7053.
Currently +33
Just a weeny bit more for the Piggy Bank
arco
Yeah, same here - 75 didn't make the cut. I thought it might have at least waited until this morning....[V]
Oh well, at least you've got something to maintain the interest - I'm on sidelines on everything for now, so will get back to looking for things that aren't there... :D:D
Xerof
i find it incredible that kiwi reacted to the rates announcement like this
isnt buy the rumour , sell the fact a bit passe
Hi All
Pete, maybe some were looking for a 50 rise not a 25, either way it was built in already
Sold some at 65
Cheers
Slam
there was no way it would be 50 - that would be madness given the lagging effects of these policy adjustments.
look at her climb again
FOREX : "The ultimate mind-f*ck"
Now, don't be nervous... and admittedly it is a pretty nice looking Gartley, but need to keep the alternative in the frame. Red wing.
http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/8301/nzdusd4as.png
Xerof
Well, so far seems to still be battling major Gann around 80 level, so for insurance have sold a sliver at 7084
Xerof
I left the old short order in at 7075....
Major Gann we are relying on you ;)
yes i had to short at .7085
but it didnt get me anywhere coz b/e stop got hit lol
kind of looks like therres more life in the beast yet
I was confident - flying without a stop. [:0] + 6
Peat - IMO you shouldnt move a stop to b/e until you have circa 50 pips. At that point you can if you wish also sell half, placing the balance at b/e. Its a guaranteed no loss situation then because even if the stop is hit you still get 25 pips average.
arco
i just wanted to go to bed , and ensure it didnt go bad. (Aint got many pips left to lose) Euro was looking uppish, so there was always the chance of it heading north. Note the Herald today quotes dealers suggesting it will go to .72 and even Max thinks .71 or .712 as likely topsQuote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
Peat - IMO you shouldnt move a stop to b/e until you have circa 50 pips.
Certainly shows there is that possibility on the weekly.........
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102805w_200.gif
Morning all
Bit of a tussle going on round the trend tine circa 7020
Need this to break to continue new short, or its back up for another go at it maybe
Cheers
slam
Updating chart of 25th Quote - ...south bound move imminent ......
Here we see the nice fall over the past week giving circa 270 pips so far with more to come IMO.
GTA - arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110505butt_533.gif
[NZ WEEK AHEAD] Mkt whispers that Gov Bollard will execute an aggressive 50bps hike by year end in light of the recent job data, will be put to the test when REINZ releases its Oct House sales/price data sometime next wk, and Sept/Q3 retail trade data are released on Tues. After Bollard's constant preaching, the housing data will be high on the Gov's radar. Relief will only come from a substantial drop in sales and house price inflation, but we expect the c/bk to become even more frustrated on the day. Meanwhile median f/c's are centered on Sept retail sales correcting for Aug's 0.2% rise by slipping -0.5% on the mth, but with underlying pace to remain robust, and Q3 volumes to rise a solid 1.4% vs 1.3% in Q2.
i've closed out gone flat
Gentlemen, lay your bets....
I thought the blue formation held the most promise, but stumbled across the green formation in the wee small hours last night and now not entirely convinced. Squared up quite a few units I held from .6900,.6884,.6843 and 6817 at .6816 and will watch how this unfolds.
Any strong views out there? (I know the market seems extremely bearish, but......)
http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/7005/nzdusd7sm.png
Xerof
are you trying to be an economist ;)
the question is : will USD strength win out over hawkish Bollard?
On the one hand...I might be....
Well, flat now on Kiwi, and pleased I cut when I did.
I'm still in the bullish USD camp generally, but waiting for clearer signs at this stage in respect of the K1W1.
Xerof
ps, looking back at my second last chart posting 27/10, I got indecisive then too - about 24 hours before it collapsed[:o)][:o)]
Well, both formations still in play. I think 6890/95 will determine which way this goes. If its higher, it can probably go to 6950+, but I have two lines of Gann resistance at circa 6900.
Well done to the "2011 bid" front row - Pinetree and Tana as excellent props for Helen the hooker :D:D
Xerof
winning the world cup must have bolstered the kiwi !!
doubled up my kiwi long when it came back to my b/e point 0.6843 and closed one out this morning at .6880 , (yes a bit of a scalp but it all helps) and holding the other for a loftier target say, .6930 ish
[NZ WK AHEAD] This wk's calendar load is undeniably heavy, and expected to be no "Thanksgiving" for the c.bk; with Oct migration data due Tues, NBNZ Business Outlook and Q3 Capital Good Price Index on Wed, Q3 PPI featuring Thurs and Oct trade data Frid. Sept qtr capital goods price index and PPI data will be of main focus to an increasingly edgy central bank, but we expect both to heighten rather than soothe its concerns over growing domestic inflationary pressures. NBNZ's biz outlook should also highlight a disturbing pick up in inflation expectations. Oct trade data ends the week off, with trends pointing to a wider annual trade deficit, weighed down by the strong NZD and surging oil prices.
Different time frame from my last posting, but looking like the longer term Gartley is in play.
If it is, it should be able to achieve 6950, where AB = CD. At 6950, of course, one then might get butterflies in the stomach....
The ol' bird is certainly showing amazing resilience, especially against European currencies.
http://img461.imageshack.us/img461/8881/nzdusd7uj.png
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes I have been watching that Gartley...waiting in
the wings.
First target circa 6948-6955
arco
Quote:
quote:it should be able to achieve 6950
FWIW
A couple of respected EW commentators are both convinced that last nights spike high to 6919 was probably enough, and that downside is now imminent.
Sell any rally I guess, with stops above 6965.
Xerof
yes its struck me that playing this correction was relatively higher risk esp as we reached the top of it so I have been out this week. Looking to re-enter USD longs tho .... perhaps a bit late....
[NZ] yield appetite appears endless, with another two offshore eurobond issuances announced today on top of IADB's 2 tranche NZ$642m uridashi issuance yest. Germany's KFW is seen offering NZ$200m bonds via a reopening of its 6.375% global paper due Feb 2015 for settlement Nov 30; whilst France's Cades to offer a NZ$200m 7% 2009 paper for settlement on the same day. Pricing for both is expected later today. Meanwhile japanese demand ensued in the local mkts today, suggesting more uridashi bonds are in the pipeline before year end.
Yes Peat, Fibanacci timewise, there's still 2 or 3 days left for a possible further spike, if it's going to happen....
Quote:
quote:Looking to re-enter USD longs tho ....
http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/2787/nzdusd2ah.png
Oh yes, and NZ current account figures released tomorrow
[xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(]
Xerof
And Peat, I see we have GoldCstMarty offering at 6956 for today......
;);)
Xerof
oh really - it was "anything that began with a 7" previously...
I havent kept up with FF last coupla days... sometimes the infinite fx blog overwhelms me. and due to not passing your test I'm still at the dayjob.
well hes not far out so far, but the little flightless fulla is certainly showing resilience....
what time is the trade data out exactly?
10.45
very resilient, against everything....
I'm short at 6952, but not too confident right now. Have a tight stop on it in case it goes to the 78.6% level (or higher)
Xerof
i'm at work short from 6937 - no stop [:o)]
can you post the figures when they come out. cheers
882 vs 830 expected so slightly worse
no real immediate reaction - wait for the pollies comments.....
i guess , as Jack Crooks from BlackSwanTrading recently said, "its all about yield"
same as the USD huh no one cares we can never pay all that money back [?]
hmmmmmm
well now I'm unsure with this
doesnt seem like the trade figures are having any impact , and max has changed y'days tune..... but the MACD is still looking down to me....
wot ya reckon xerof....
Well, I'll respect the Gartley until proven otherwise.
Xerof