Did you notice the interviewers (smart cookies) tried to mention that economic growth causes negative corporate profit pressures but the fast talking Man in smart suit dismissed their comments and talked his way around those side-issues. He was a man on a mission with a set agenda and the interviewers noticed this.
I don't know about Market pricing probabilities.. that game seems rigged, Omad ................It's hard enough trying to predict what will happen tomorrow with a single variable e.g the S&P500 index... less alone trying to predict what each of the hundreds of variables and networked variables will do by years end in the market pricing process... how on earth can anyone get a probability of 30% or any probability for that matter.
That Man in smart suit from Goldman's Sachs , David Kostin, he used all the logic and knowledge he had plus expensive models to predict all the variables and still got
his 2012 year prediction wrong...so he was on the wrong side of his probabilities too. :D..
There are some intelligent beings out there on cyber space that have very good track records ..One character sends his emails to over 1 million recipients to keep us informed.