Long term, I still think Sky and 2D tie up.
But given everything that is happening right now (and in particular the 2D/Orcon merger that is underway) the chance of this happening 'soon' is zero I think.
I do think we are going to see the companies strengthening their partnership in the near to medium term.
2D already has a wholesale agreement with Sky for NEON and Sky Sport NOW (long may this continue!).
But streaming subs are not as sticky as STB customers. Where the vast majority of STB customers have been with Sky for 5+ years...the average tenure of a NEON sub is 13 months. Perhaps that might change somewhat if more NEON subs can be bundled in with telco like they get with 2D now, however I think you will find their average tenure will still lag STB considerably.
So, it seems to me that there is an opportunity for Sky and 2D (or any other telco for that matter) with the new STB.
2D could offer bundles that give Sky Tv discounts if they take broadband/mobile (the size of the discount could depend on whether you take broadband, mobile or both). They don't have to go down the whole reseller route that Vodafone used to have whereby they manage and rebrand the STB etc. Just leave the Sky relationship with Sky, but build an API between Sky and 2D systems so that qualifying Sky customers receive a discount based on their relationship with 2D.
- Sky Bill the customer the 'normal' fee - discount.
- Sky Bill 2D each month for a portion of the discount given to the customer
- 2D don't need to invoice the customer or manage any part of the relationship they have with Sky
2D would only provide the discount for subs of the new STB (not MySky) so that they can hammer away in the marketing about how customers will benefit using their world class fibre network to stream their content using Sky's latest tech etc etc.
So, for example:
- ARPU $80/month
- 2D discount knocks off $15/month - so customer only pays $65/month to Sky
- Sky bill 2D $10/month for each customer (so Sky eat a $5/month discount however the benefit is that the STB becomes stickier based on their relationship with 2D)
- 2D take a $10/month hit subsidising the Sky discount but now have broadband and/or mobile customers that are stickier.
This would also give both parties a good opportunity to see how successful/popular Sky/broadband/mobile/energy bundles are in NZ before sitting down to consider an even closer relationship.
It could be a good way for Sky to return their STB base back to growth whole continuing to grow NEON/SSN subs.