[QUOTE=huxley;714739]the stocks got potential dont disagree,
Printable View
Solid result with increased fully imputed divvy.
cant complain about a div increase , be hoping to hear about portfolio narrowing and capital allocation more in there briefing.
Market seems happy enough with it
an encouraging report
but my immediate points would be
eps down despite all the increases in underlying this and normalised that
forecast is up but only after normalising
forecast relies on good returns from Tilt (which just posted a loss), and Perth Gen (same)
I get a bit wary of the accounting but that is their forte and they do come up with rabbits out of the hat.
not a holder at present but always keeping an eye on them.
the ceo seemed a bit caught of guard why mercury wanted to buy into tilt, probably a little peeved that some big knowgeable investor paid for a 20% stake well above market price and they missed out.
anyway never understood myself why infratil was wanting to buy the stake when they approved the split from trustpower doesnt make much sense why split it from your majority owned investment and then try to buy it back? dont get it seems like a real waste of money. I do see why mercury wanted it australia moving rapidly away from fossil generation to renewables has opened the market to fast movers to make some serious money from being first of the rank to build a scalable renewables business , tilt offers this by having the pipeline of projects. im just hoping infratil can speed it up before every joe wants in and the opportunity evaporates. 2020 i think is when subsidies for wind and solar finish.
“anyway never understood myself why infratil was wanting to buy the stake when they approved the split from trustpower doesnt make much sense why split it from your majority owned investment and then try to buy it back? ”
IFT held about 51% of old Trustpower and now hold about 51% of new Trustpower & of Tilt, in other words they still had the same stake before and after.. the trust likewise held about 26% of both Trustpower & Tilt, but they are more of an income focused investor so they didn’t really have the capacity or willingness to comit to the captital requirements needed to progress TLTs pipeline. It’s a win for the trust as they can put that capital to work in a diversified income focused investment and de-risks them from having such a large stake in the energy sector. They also had at least two willing buyers for their TLT stake, so got a higher sale price.
okay i get it , so infratil wanted to buy there stake because they see the big opportunity in tilt , but then mercury saw the big opportunity too but was willing too pay way more than anyone else.
does this suggest one day mercury sees tilt as a company worth billions?
they say dundonnell will double the size of tilt , but why not double it again they have consents for mahinerangi and kawera downs combined 400 mw , i think they are to conservative in there approach now that mercury is onboard and stated they are willing to stump up the cash infratil should expediate the development pipeline triple tilt size very quickly is easliy obtainanble
Risk.. for example, what happens if you committed to building those South Island assets and the aluminium smelter closed? The spot price would fall and you’d be left holding some stranded assets.. 😦
By the way, maybe I should change my name to “bear” haha
you dont need 100% committed contracts for the mwh to make them viable proposition to build , sometimes you need to take a leap of faith that the remaining mwh to be sold will be contracted in the future. as long as the contracted mwh supports the build and future costs then the additional sales will flow to the bottom line in time. i think its more about building the scale quickly and if they are sound propostions the additional sales will come.
infratil are saying there platforms are growth assets , there gearing is falling so why not get a move on? retire aus , data centres , tilt they are all sectors where the competition is not going to wait