Yes 31.5% EBITDA (mid point) is a nice improvement on 30.7% last year and a little above consensus expectations of 30.9% for FY19
https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MI...22/financials/
I am not sure however that the average market consensus of 37 cps is going to be exceeded by much if anything what with marketing doubling in the second half.
If we work of 37 cps (average analyst expectation) the shares at $13.80 are on a forward PE of 37 which is right at the top end of their historical multiple range.
One should not overlook the China concentration / regulatory risk with this stock which in my view is not priced into the stock at all.
Synlait on a forward PE of 19.6 with its more diversified business plan looks like a better risk reward investment at around $9.80 on around half the PE that ATM at $13.80.
Remember that in many ways their fortunes are inextricably linked.
Interestingly is we look right out to FY21 as far as the analysts are forecasting the eps growth rate of Synlait and ATM is the same and yet its priced on roughly half the PE.
I think at just under $14 its a great time to lock in some profit before Herdlicker and her colleagues do.
Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, (so I will leave it at that and let you guys enjoy the day)...it just could be there's a better and safer way to play this growth story with Synlait.