They do have enough cash to do it. :t_up:
Printable View
My expect is due to the global logistics problem and the tension with China which in term will halt the Chinese students to study in Australia , all of the mentioned will effect more sales in daigou chanel and global shipment chain. They will down grade the previous guidance .... Hold tight guys.... Very obvious and the Share Price has been reflecting on this since.
“We have become aware of information which may require us to release an announcement to revise our previously issued guidance to the market,” the company said in a statement to the Australian stock exchange.
“We are requesting a trading halt to provide us with additional time to properly consider the current information and to consider new information as it becomes available, and inform the market.”
......................After a very nice long lunch with a couple of really good mates and a few refreshments I reached the inescapable conclusion that some people cannot be helped and one has done a very good job of shooting himself in both feet, (despite years of me trying behind the scenes to get him to take a more reasoned, professional and prudent approach with his investing). In a nutshell, some people are their own worst enemy.
Back to ATM. As I see it four issues present.
1. The immediate downgrade and effect on earnings, likely to be material in my view.
2. Implications for FY22 growth rate, (if any) and beyond. Likely to be a material change.
3. What's a fair PE for a company that may be growing very slowly for the foreseeable future. Another material change coming.
4. The obviously skillful way these downgrades have been crafted to avoid the possibility of any successful action for insider trading is an addition overlay / Governance concern.
I foresee a material downgrade to earnings and future growth projections and a consequent material knock on effect to the multiple the market will attribute to ATM going forward.
I also have never seen such a long trading halt for what looks like a downgrade coming. Possible massive Geopolitical issue with the Chinese coming ? Dairy exports from Australia to be blocked or hit with a massive tariff that effectively blocks them ? Who knows, time will tell.
Synlait down 7.4% in just one day looks a bit ominous. I think Synlait could test multi year lows in the next few days. $4 on the cards I reckon.
On top of the above the $Kiwi at multi year high's will be a further headwind.
Potentially nasty if the revised guidance is not good. If so, TA suggests the GAP to $13 will immediately close with support below that at $12.20 and unfortunately no obvious supports below that until vaguely around $10 then the low Oct 2018 around $8.67.
Thoughts are with current holders, hoping this isn't a near term calamity, but for others looking for an entry or top up ... keep the powder dry until you see the whites of the eyes (might be a capitulation).
Multi day trading halts for guidance updates (usually big downgrades) are not that unusual
Aim to get some reality in the forecasts (ie do a thorough job instead of broad based assumptions / guesses) and robust enough so they don’t have to through the pain of further downgrades again.
But in saying that most don’t get it right and still have ‘hope’ built in....which doesn’t eventuate.
"the Hindenburg"
oh dear this is really almost more exciting than the sailing... but after this afternoons racing i cant see anything being more exciting for NZ over the summer..The Americas cup in NZ is surely one of the great new stories of 2020/2021 for NZ sport to be championed around the world. Lets hope on monday there is no Hindenburg... really chins up people.. chins up..
How many times have they blown it badly before?
So we know where things might be heading.
F20 Revenue $1.73m NPAT $385.8m
F21 Guidance at results announcement - we anticipate continued strong revenue growth ...EBITDA margin of 30%-31% etc etc
September guidance. H1 Revenue $725m to &775m (pcp $806m) but full year to be $1.8 billion and ebitda margin about 31%
Wonder what the latest guidance brings know where things might be heading
I’d say full year revenues less than $1.6b as poor sales continue through H2 and margin pressure reducing npat to less than $300m
Not going broke but way way below expectations.
Mr. B, I just confirmed the daigou A2 wholesale price of infant powder has collapsed by approximately 10% since Nov. Usually this is the busiest period of daigou business, the price was supposed to increase, according to previous experience. Karicare infant A2 range are half price lower against A2. Price war, very bad signal for the industry.
I’m with you Winner but a bit more bearish. I’m picking 700m H1, H2 700m. Fully year 1.4billion. That’s my 2c. I reckon everyone needs to get in their bets and we’ll swing a sweepstake. A tin of A2 to the closest updated guidance.
Maybe sales around 1.5 Billion and NPAT 300 million as they saved on lots of travelling and marketing costs this year ...lol
SP will eventually rest more on why this happened ? and less on this year numbers only ....If this is going to be difficult market ahead then SP will be hit harder and for longer .
BTW KFL will be hit badly too almost 5 cents of NAV will be shaved off with still 11.4% holding as per latest report . Wonder how they got this idea of selling 500,000 ATM just before the HALT ...very very interesting !!
Main question remains ...Quality Company to Hold or look to get out ??
Put the picture together and if flying lizard information is correct, we are looking at a multiple downgrade scenarios :
H1 F2021 - somewhat impacted
H2 F2021 - full impact
F2022 - full impact
The way that Synlait share price fell away sharply this afternoon suggests that news of whatever bedevils ATM is 'leaking' out to the well informed.