As expected markets didn't tank and energy prices didn't rocket. Surprise?
Printable View
As expected markets didn't tank and energy prices didn't rocket. Surprise?
Fed’s Powell: Elevated inflation will likely delay rate cuts this year
https://apnews.com/article/inflation...487fdb98395d09
wonder if we will get same reaction from ORR after today's CPI ?
The Kiwi Bank economist on RNZ this morning pointed out that the double digit increases in rates & insurance is going to keep inflation stubbornly elevated.
Hopefully the RBNZ is smart enough to know these two significant items just suck money out of the economy and will slow the demand for 'things'. They would be smart to ignore these distortions from the core inflation numbers. But are they smart?
On another note, I see the VIX is only marginally higher & is trading around the five year average, so for all the global tension, the VIX is treating it as trading pretty much as usual.
If oil prices hit above $100 as a result of geo politics many industries will hit and inflation will go up further. Consumer purchasing power will drop further. Demand for EVs are falling. Cash rich companies will make more cash thanks to high rates. Highly leveraged companies will struggle.
Potentially not good for little old NZ
"WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH DAIRY COWS AND BIRD FLU?"
https://hub.jhu.edu/2024/04/15/qa-avian-flu-in-cows/
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/p...4897-446239310
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...ted-while-rent
New Zealand's annual inflation rate dropped to 4% in March, from 4.7% in December, albeit rents, house construction costs and council rates continued rising.
The Consumers Price Index (CPI) increased just 0.6% in the March quarter, up from 0.5% in the previous period.
The CPI measures changes in the prices paid by households for goods and services which provides insight into inflationary trends in NZ’s economy.
Statistics NZ said on Wednesday the price increases in the March quarter were the smallest since June 2021.
“However, they remain above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1% to 3%,” Stats NZ senior manager Nicola Growden said.
Annual inflation still came in higher than what the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) was expecting as the central bank had forecast annual inflation to decrease to 3.8% in the March quarter.
Westpac and Kiwibank economists had cast 4.2% as their expected annual inflation rate, ASB picked 4.1% while ANZ went for 4% and BNZ came lowest at 3.9%.
RBNZ likes the trimmed-mean number
Stats NZ says-
The trimmed-mean measures – which excludes extreme price movements – ranged from 4.4 to 4.6 percent in the 12 months to March 2024 quarter. This indicates that underlying inflation is higher than the 4.0 percent increase in the CPI