Originally Posted by
Baa_Baa
TA never lies because it's already happened, but granted it's a matter of interpretation. FA is very helpful because it's now with a sniff of the potential future, but granted it's a matter of interpretation. That's why we use both.
So let's look at some market price logic. In AIR's best year ever, it chinned the bar at $3.60ish then fell back to the SP highs going back to 2007 (that's now, by the way), so assuming this is its second best year ever it shouldn't get quite that high again - also assuming the current SP down trend does reverse, which isn't apparent at this stage.
I get it that there's a tasty dividend stream along the way and you can buy an earner if you don't worry about capital, but this punter doesn't do capital losses on the off chance that dividend payouts are greater than the head share loss.
With AIR the capital movements far exceed the dividends per share, hence the analogy to being a trading stock firstly, a divi stripper if you're onto it and lucky, but a long term hold .. yeah nah. Too many things go wrong with airlines to risk capital just for the dividends.
I think AIR is a great trading share, the savvy can make a truck load more money getting in and out around the highs and lows with a few divies as a bonus if coincidentally holding when the divi is paid out (a nice bonus). So for AIR TA is more helpful imho than all the intricacies of interpreting FA, let alone using FA to decide an entry or exit.
Jmho, lucky we're all different or there wouldn't be a market.
BAA