i bailed on this short a few hours ago....6951
there must be some real flow comin in for it to buck the overall US$ strength trend
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i bailed on this short a few hours ago....6951
there must be some real flow comin in for it to buck the overall US$ strength trend
what do you think of todays special report Xerof?
Peat, wasn't attached to my email so haven't got it yet, but can guess what he's going to say - correction over and on to retest highs around 7450?
Haven't been around much this week to follow anything closely - just back in today so will have a look at everything over the weekend and maybe put something up on Monday
But kiwi is ballistic on crosses..... Bollard must be poohing his pants
Xerof
and the rest [:0]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
correction over and on to retest highs around 7450?
as suggested elsewhere Bollard chould try some other avenues.
he could actually intervene... hell , lots of other CB's do.
that would be philosopically outrageous perhaps , but maybe pragmatism should sway.
General qestion to anyone.
What other options are available to him.
Their only tool, other than intervention is the OCR. Anything else would need to come from the Pollies. Their stated policy on intervention is to 'take the froth off' highs and lows.
IMO intervention would have to be a last resort, and would only achieve a 2 or 3 cent reaction, unless their timing was impecable.
I do recall in early 1994, when the NZD was being trashed they raised rates 2 or 3 times on the same day. That stopped the rot dead in its tracks. We saw rates go from around 4% to 9% inside 12 months, and the NZD began a multi month rally from that very day.
Maybe they could [u]ease</u> rates in the same manner, (although the timing is surely not right just yet), but it wouldn't surprise me to see that happen in 2006, if the TWI was at 80 and the economy was experiencing a hard landing.
Other than that, give the Finance portfolio to Winston[8D][8D]
Xerof
wow that would be amazing to see, several rates rises in a day!! That would make forex trading very intense. Of course no retail market then.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
Their only tool, other than intervention is the OCR. Anything else would need to come from the Pollies. Their stated policy on intervention is to 'take the froth off' highs and lows.
IMO intervention would have to be a last resort, and would only achieve a 2 or 3 cent reaction, unless their timing was impecable.
I do recall in early 1994, when the NZD was being trashed they raised rates 2 or 3 times on the same day. That stopped the rot dead in its tracks. We saw rates go from around 4% to 9% inside 12 months, and the NZD began a multi month rally from that very day.
Maybe they could [u]ease</u> rates in the same manner, (although the timing is surely not right just yet), but it wouldn't surprise me to see that happen in 2006, if the TWI was at 80 and the economy was experiencing a hard landing.
Other than that, give the Finance portfolio to Winston[8D][8D]
Xerof
I was kinda wondering about the actual mechnnism for CB intervention. Guess at the end of the day hes just a trader like everyone else, cept maybe more with the goal of getting maximum impact for his spend.
And hah! , do you worry about losing as a CB. Damm I'm down 40 yards. Do you care?
How much would it take to move the Kiwi market. Surely you'd have to have a lot of courage to try to stem the Yen inflow. Deeeeeeeeeeeep pockets.
-i think he'll raise it again
-do some OMO (open mouth operations)
-not intervene
-unless he raises it by 50bp
-and interest rate will continue to be a floor under an overvalued NZD... until signals of lower interest rate break the floor
+what happens when the Uridashis/eurokiwis mature? will they /can they roll them on or do they have to sell NZDs?
Intervention can be very profitable for CB's Peat. I think the RBA has made a packet in the past as they are usually either selling at highs or buying at lows, and of course, they are usually right!
The BOJ has done pretty well too, but sometimes it has taken a while for their positions to come right for them, but eventually they get their way. I think last time they intervened was around 110, and it went to 104 before turning. They'll be offering around 125 I would guess.
The last major cycle before that saw them bidding at 85.00ish, then offering at 135ish - not a bad turn on a few hundred billion USD (plus forward points)
Zyreon - yes, no doubt about it, he'll tighten again, and probably remain hawkish as well.
The 'special report' Peat was referring to is basically calling for new highs above 7500, with 9000+ being an EW target[xx(][xx(][xx(]
I'll try to reproduce his wave count on my own charts and post it over the weekend (not an EW expert myself, but respect the power of the waves)
7500 is achievable shorter term I guess - 9000+ will need the USD to collapse against everything.
The Uridashi's etc may or may not roll - it'll depend on the trend at the time, but in the past they have only rolled if the currency is in an uptrend.
At the end of the day, these only work if the issuer can achieve attractive sub libor funding once its swapped back to their currency of choice, usually USD (which requires a swap curve well above bonds), and if there is appetite for high yield at retail.
Its the retail market that has all the currency risk, not the issuer, and they either don't understand the risk or don't care...yield rules OK;);)
As well as these issues, we also have momentum models kicking into buy mode as we break higher and higher levels, mainly on the crosses, real money accounts, who play 'lets squeeze the export sector' just before the start of the seasonal peak every year like a broken record, and of course finally we have the local corporates who are probably undercovered (as usual) and are now squealing.
Its a potent combo if you have maturities coinciding with an economic downturn, as well as a down-trending currency - maybe mid/late 2006 will produce that scenario, but in the meantime have to keep an open mind...
Xerof
And Peat, BOJ intervention is usually done via a panel of banks, who quote them well out of market and just go smash the price. Not sure about RBA - think in the past they have been seen direct via brokers but could be wrong on that.
well... on the long kiwi thing.... so far so good..... quite a whip up on Fri nite huh!
note that Gold Coast Martin wrote a very long diatribe on the global-view forex forum over the weekend, which has relevance. Hes still adamant the Kiwi is a sell , but then he said the USD/CAD was a long at 1.1900 as well.
The solution in my opinion is to opt out of the agreement that residential mortgage lending requires banks to put up only 50% of the capital required to lend to any corporate. This would immediately raise the cost of lending to retail without effecting corporate Sector, but aparently we have some agreeement with other central banks to abide by the Basle rules which govern such things.
Dubdee, you're quite right, on all counts, but there is the issue of securitisation of mortgage books to counter as well, which takes residential mortgages off banks books anyway
wot u mean by that ?
Dove?
yep, although some might see it as still hawkish
probably 'more balanced' is a better description, but there's no bird to represent that:D:D
only went .25, removed overt comments regarding more hikes to come, and whilst still concerned about demand side inflation risks, the statement has a more balanced look about it by talking about downside risks to their forecasts. The forecasts themselves imply no more hikes
Xerof
i read his "Whether further tightening is needed will depend on the extent to which housing and demand pressures show signs of moderating over the months ahead." to possibly mean we'll sit on our hands for a while now.
At least somebody agrees with me:D:DQuote:
quote:RBNZ puts the death knell on the Kiwi, we think we have seen the last rate hike in their cycle now.
Craig Ferguson, Senior Currency Strategist ANZ
Well, we wrote in last night’s report that the fate of the Kiwi lay in the RBNZ’s hands. Our motto is “never bet against the RBA”, and in this sense, we can extend that concept to the NZ context, and now state that we also “should never bet against the RBNZ”. One reason for this is that they own the monetary policy stick, and can often use it to follow up any public comments they make. We didn’t really consider last night the outcome for the NZD if the RBNZ hiked and then were dovish, as we really didn’t think they were overly concerned as yet that NZ GDP growth was decelerating fast enough to offset inflationary pressures. However you can see what the market’s reaction to that dovishness means for the NZD in the price action this morning.
The feature of their statement accompanying their policy hike this morning was the more dovish tone, the balance now between domestic growth and inflation risks as dictators of future rate hikes, and the rising risks of a possible hard landing. No reference was made, as in the last statement, that further rate hikes would be likely, and while the RBNZ said that at this stage no easing prospect is foreseeable, we believe that NZ rates will be around 5.5% in 2007 as the easing cycle, when it comes, will be extremely aggressive.
The implications are pretty clear for the currency. The RBNZ have used the policy stick to provide the death knell for the NZDUSD and NZDAUD rates. Thankfully we suggested last night that shorts should be entered in NZD around .71 cents. We believe those shorts should be kept and added to, as the next stop for NZDUSD is .6650 and then much lower levels.
Xerof
http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/2934/elevator5fs.jpgQuote:
quote:7/12 - where's the door............
Looks like a few have decided to use this instead.....:D:D
Xerof
First look at NZD for the year - up the stairs again....
Multiple Ganns and 61.8% fib looming at around 70 cents, and in EW terms, perhaps in wave 4, but leave that to the experts......
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/143/nzd3tf.png
Xerof
And up goes the $NZ again. Most economists predict the kiwi is going to slide this year. basically i have no idea and nor do they. They have got it wrong in general on most issues over the last 2 years
Good call Xerof
.6998 capped that one;)
70 pips so far for the brave
Cheers
Slam
Short This Pair and it Just did a wee drop.
Any news that I missed?
Cheers
Slam
Just get it
"NZ Biz Confidence Falls To 20-Year Low"
That will do it
Cheers
Slam
Still holding short
Target, 61.8% of the 0.6710 - 0.7005 run, circa .6825
Cheers
Slam
Fighting .6850 again (50% fib)
Any gann levels aroung here chaps?
Cheers
Slam
Morning Slam
Gann .6836
Uptrend line has been broken and oscillator dropped
below centre line, so if that Gann breaks it may then
become resistance.
arco
Hi Arco
Thought there may be something afoot.
Closed shorts a few mins ago, looks like it may bounce a bit here.
Hope you had a good break, it's been a bit quiet on ST lately
You may want to have a look at the JPY thread. Pete asked a question that I attempted to answer but you may be able to give some better advice
Cheers
Slam
Greetings all,
An update of the chart I posted last Thursday - progressing nicely... 200 pips to date
I have some support around current levels, but admittedly it's not looking too Flash Harry.....maybe 0.6765 might slow downward progress
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/4372/nzd5xh.png
Xerof
Well
Had to go to Auckland last night for a gig, and as Murphy has it, this one dropped while I was out.[B)]
Still, had a AUD/NZD long so got some of it there.
Nice Chart Xerof, hope you still in.
Cheers
Slam
Textbook Gann................
From yesterday Gann .6836
Uptrend line has been broken and oscillator dropped
below centre line, so if that Gann breaks it may then
become resistance.
Gann level was breached and polarity tested as suggested. Next possible area to watch - .6714
arco
Greetings Arco,
Gann 6836 - - I can't for the life of me get that point on Esignal chart using DGL. Can you provide the 3 dates used to calc that please, to enhance my edumuhcashin
The 78.6% fib at .67665 held perfectly last night BTW, low was 6767 according to local bank reports this morning - nice...
and this is after the 61.8% fib of last downcycle held neatly at 7000 as well - I've never known the currency to behave so well[:p][:p]
I'm still bearish fundamentally (stomach pains) but would like to be flexible and see if a gartley or even a butterfly forms on the daily and weekly charts, using last nights low as a base for point C.....
cheers
Xerof
Morning Xerof
I have several DGL's overlayed on my chart and sometimes tweak the longer dated DGL formulae in Metastock to correspond with previous support/resistance points, therefore my figures might not always correspond with yours or standard DGL's.
The L1 from 5/12 gave a very accurate support point (based on Rooters EOD)
Regards - arco
Xerof
I may be wrong (and more than often are) But if you take the high at .7 being c, maybe it's a gartley going the other way.
ie we are finishing d now.
or is that what you ment in the first place
(I'll shutup now)
Cheers
Slam
Slam,
That would be an invalid pattern, as B .6702 is lower than A .6746.
It early days and as Arco has said in the past, prefer to wait for a full pattern to evolve, than try to anticipate one forming, so take my comments as they were meant - merely a possibility.
BTW -- don't be so hard on yourself - you have done pretty well since returning from exile:D:DQuote:
quote:I may be wrong (and more than often are)
Xerof
Cheers Xerof:)
BTW, its a bit concerning that it couldn't rally with the rest of the pack during Friday night's USD sell-off.....
Xerof
Sames with AUD.
I remember on post last year that stated these 2 would perform like this.
ie. move down with the other currencies against the USD but not recover as much when they bounce/retrace etc. Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
May be the pattern for a while with these 2, especially if Japan starts pulling out
Cheers
Slam
Bollacks Hawkish again:(
Made a nice Buy though for AUD/NZD[8D]
Cheers
Slam
We seem to have ignored the ol' bird recently, so here goes....
http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/8956/nzd0sy.png
It's at an interesting junction. This Bullish(yes bullish) butterfly has met the AB=CD target, and has followed classic retracement numbers so far....
But, it is not in harmony with Fibonacci extension targets of 127.2% and 161.8%, so there seems a good possibility that this 6680 area will not hold this time round (.6680 to .6700 has been good support twice now since July last year)
I think if we see a clear break of .6680, then we should set targets somewhere between .6620 (127.2%) and ideally .6525 (161.8%) before a bounce.
Xerof