Interesting ... my spreadsheet came up with a ROE of 5.7%. While still not flash ... which input do you use to arrive at 4.3%? Did you take out the gains through currency movements?
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BP they generated $24.6m in free cash flow and then pay out $43.3m in dividends. Wow they must be confident in the future
I get ROE of 4.3%
Market screener has profit for FY24 at $53m. Trading already behind last year so somehow they will still improve by 47%???? How?
I dont believe it
Based on past observations are financial forecasts always uncorrelated to what is going to happen - i.e. it makes sense not to "believe" the forecasts collected by market screener (or anybody else) if you want to use them as model for what will happen.
If you use them however as just one possible scenario of what potentially could happen, than I found them as good as any other forecast.
Sometimes I find it useful to just develop a potential scenario which could make a particular forecast happen.
I could see a number of scenarios allowing KMD to improve its profits this FY. Whether they will happen, is another question - but then, I didn't predict in 2019 neither FPH's nor ATM's amazing fortunes (and later downturn), nor did I predict in 2021 the outbreak of Putins latest war and the related company profits or lack thereof.
So, just imagine the world returning to their senses and local as well as international tourism booming. I am sure, KMD would benefit from that.
Imagine a world improving their environmental thinking and moving to buy better stuff (and less often) instead of buying every season cheap junk. KMD would benefit from that.
Imagine a world where more people want to rediscover the outdoors and need the right gear to do that. KMD would benefit from that.
Could all happen, couldn't it? Maybe it depends just on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist?
Something weird with their numbers
H223 NPAT (adjusted) was $26.8m which is 40% less than $44.9m in pcp H222
Looking at rolling annual total (2 halves) at Jan 2023 it was $61.4m …now $43.3m
Seems profits are in decline
BlackPeter, are you banking on some form of climate event to turn this dog of a stock into a winner, much like your views on kiwifruit?
Muse pointed out HLG 2nd half profit was down 18% and commented it was a year of two halves
Seems the case for KMD as well so no worries
KMD did increase operating cashflows by 81% and reduced inventory by $5m even though they sold $100m more stuff so thats good.
Probably best to wait for half year because the signs are already there that its going to be a tough half. so with the SP already in a downtrend + high potential for poor 1st half FY24 why buy now?
One thing to watch will be the wholesale kathmandu sales in Europe and North America. If that booms it could be boomtime for the SP... Current is $2m odd or something negligible like thatQuote:
In the short term, our brands face challenges with geopolitical uncertainty, economic volatility, market competition, supply chain disruptions, and cost-of-living impacts on consumer spending. Our competitors are pricing aggressively to shift high levels of inventory and challenging our market share.
Market doesn’t seem too impressed with the numbers and the rave …..share price down sub 80 cents again