Huge volume today?
1.45M shares traded so far.
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Huge volume today?
1.45M shares traded so far.
Attachment 14036
Very large off market trade today. Someone looking forward to something.
Enacting the "wait for the large crossing in a downtrend and then buy" strategy in my trading account. Limited position size though given my exposure in long term account.
Up on high volume = good
Down on high volume = bad
That's a pointless exercise imo, could as easily 'ponder if the person on the sell side has an 'inkling' of something bad developing soon. Whether that be skinny dividends, or something else'. Might be Sophie selling out, or buying a million more. See, a pointless exercise because, you'll never know unless there's an SPH notice or an insider declaration, by then it's too late anyway.
Did they say there will be a capital return? Did they say they would announce anything before the Results on 25th August? Nature Abhors vacuum, around here that vacuum gets filled with speculation. The dialogue on this thread over the past year would make a great
'whodunnit' script for a movie.
Yes, they did.
No, but until recently they left the door wide open to an announcement prior to August 25. A lot of people assumed an announcement was imminent after MW deal collapsed as they had no need for the cash.
Very true. Lots of speculation about a Sky TV takeover...but so far, little appetite from those who have the cash to do it.
I think the SP has started to run in the lead up to the announcement. I would have thought it would have started earlier, from the date of dropping the MW debacle. Some people just have the required patience to make money.
Announcing that they have secured the RWC rights?
I see the US-China tensions are threatening a fresh wave of chip shortages.
Hopefully won’t affect our already delayed new STB.
Please to announce that Sky Sports Now has come through for the PL fan. Replays worked well (although I wish they had a function to start the replay while the game is still being played) and the 10-15min highlight packages were up fairly quickly. The difference in quality of watching the game live or by replay is quite striking though.
Looks like it will be a strong Open.
What say you Stallion?
What do the tea leaves have in store for us this week?
242 needs to break to get us out of this equilibrium and mark a bottom.
Right, back to this fresh powder.
I had a chat to my son who lives in the US East COast. Excellent fast internet services.
He says that their picture quality of live streaming of sports at his house is poor as well....maybe he compares it to cable ? Not sure.
This cheered me up a bit...as I had been blaming SKY. But apparently not.
When the new set top box arrives...I might try that for a change and see what the comparison is like...wonder what the cost differential might be ?
Some of the quality of the Commonwealth Games coverage has been especially hard on the eyes to watch. And it seems that some movements are simply missing,
I guess one gets what one pays for...I have enjoyed the games way more than I thought I would.
Bid side fully loaded for possible breakout soon...
I have not had SS since we changed to fibre. So can’t comment. My memory of it when I did have it on VDSL….was that while the picture was excellent…movement, e.g. a tennis ball, was not as smooth and easy on the eye as the satellite picture, I had both at the time for a while. I put it down to a bit of a speed issue with copper….but now, not so sure as I think fibre is similar. This is backed up by son in USA.
Mr T says satellite is excellent.
Satellite far superior to broadband when it comes to live sport.
No doubt about it.
Satellite also gives you the only truly ‘live’ experience. If you watch on Spark sport, sky sport now or sky GO the picture you see is usually delayed for around a minute.
Not a big deal if you don’t have friends who have satellite texting you during the match and you stay away from media.
Otherwise you can get spoilers 30 seconds or so before you see it happen.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...OJHW5AFADX6NA/
Some breathing room from VTV so we can offer our new Box.
Only delayed to October 30, so that is confirmation that the launch of the new Sky Box is now imminent I think.
Picture quality varies by format and delivery method.
Both SKY and Freeview use the Optus D1 satellite which offers both a lower quality SD format or at the broadcasts option their version of HD. Check with SKY as to whether a particular channel is delivered in HD format.
Freeview terrestrial broadcasts in the HD H.264 format which is miles better than Freeview satellite. Freeview terrestrial reception in marginal areas is often flaky. In these areas I recommend you persist in seeking a good terrestrial reception as the quality is better. You may need to get an external aerial installed by a specialist installer.
Web video clients use a baffling array of video standards meaning if you video client doesn't support the standard, tough luck. Most good quality video clients are net speed aware and are capable of switching to a lower quality if bandwidth is not sufficient.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
PS. Pay per view providers often encrypt their output. The reason for a poor viewing experience may be your client chugging decrypting the feed.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...WDVNHILM73Q3U/
Stanners can tell Mark Callander how to merge with Sky! :t_up:
Actually, on second thought...maybe MC shouldn't take any advice from him regarding a Sky merger given the merger failed under Stanners! :eek2:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/lockerroo...-tv-feed?amp=1
More kudos to sky.
Their sport product in general is very very good.
How's our SKT Dividend / Cap Return merger going ? ;)
Looks like we are in for another strong open w69.
This must certainly portend that we all become billionaires before long by holding SKT.
Stallion, what say you?
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/7f/86...e274670426.gif
2.80 by the middle of next week.
https://youtu.be/q25aJ6UNvhw
500sl Mercedes, box at eden park, 80 foot yacht and place on the harbour.
"She's a hard road finding the perfect company to invest in boy. Still, no hurry eh."
Though it is getting closer
Just nutsville that the quoted value of my Sky shares have moved in the order of $100K in just a few days.
Hard to describe the feeling isn't it, when one has been a promoter and heavily invested for a long time, most of it under water, then the market finally says .. you were right. Suck it up, enjoy, take some profits. Sky's turnaround is happening. Only a few days now until results and capital distribution. Give yourself a break and a pat on the back.
Wondering how the market will react to the HBO Max news?
I assume you are referring to this?
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/10...ikes-it-or-not
Just speculation that Warner will cut Sky out of the equation altogether.
We renewed and expanded our deal with Warner just last year: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378056
8 months before that we renewed with Discovery on a co-exclusive basis: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364535
Sky will have access to HBO/Discovery content for years to come...and it is a big assumption that Warner-Discovery will cut Sky TV out of the equation altogether in years to come when the current deals expire.
$900K off market trade.
Good to see some optimism from the bigger boys.
Though, as has also been pointed out...the other side of that trade is another large holder just as keen to exit at $2.50.
High volumes this week with a no downward effect on price. There is distribution and consolidation going on before the next leg up?
Can anyone help with details of a good, safe broker to move some SKT volume. Been dealing with ASB securities and they drive me nuts with their rules and regulations on trading decent numbers. They are fine to deal with for 1000 shares but hopeless when it’s a 100,000. Thanks in advance.
Jarden Direct
I use ASB sec and have only had one occassion in the past when I needed to sell in volume.
Rather than use their online portal I rang them to do it - and I asked them to sell at market price, but drip feed it. Also negotiated their commission down from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Worked out fine for me in that instance.
Should be another strong open today...with exactly two weeks to go...
I hope the WR deal is announced before the FY results. If the deal is favourable, good be some timely 'good news' heading into the Big Reveal...
Fwiw I'm going to buy more today based on nothing more that I met some friends last night and 2 out of 3 are coming back to Sky Sports after a long hiatus because of PL football.
The Spinoff outlining that HBOMax will launch here in 2024, after Skys Content agreement ends next year:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/10...ikes-it-or-not
EDIT: apologies didn't see this was already posted earlier.
Spinoff claims that the HBO deal ends next year.
Sky statement in response that it has other content is very “weak sauce”:
Quote:
Yes, HBO has some terrific shows, but Sky is a curator of fantastic entertainment, with over 530 different content partnerships in place to deliver premium content to our customers. Recent hits from studios other than HBO include The Handmaid’s Tale, Love Island, Yellowjackets and Yellowstone.”
You forgot the first bit of the quote, which is crucial.
Sky have a long standing and deep relationship with these guys - so it is a big call to assume that the outcome will definitely be that Sky is cut out of the equation altogether. I am not saying it is not possible, just pointing out that there is also a very good chance (if not a probability) Sky maintain those relationships. As I say, WD-Disc would need to anticipate some pretty large sub numbers willing to pay them month in and month out to justify killing the sky deal.Quote:
In a statement, a spokesperson for Sky TV said: “Sky has deep, long term and multifaceted partnerships with both of the now merged entities. Our current deal with Warner Bros. Discovery gives us exclusive access to HBO content in New Zealand and there are plenty of conversations to be had before New Zealand’s future content deals are determined. Yes, HBO has some terrific shows, but Sky is a curator of fantastic entertainment, with over 530 different content partnerships in place to deliver premium content to our customers. Recent hits from studios other than HBO include The Handmaid’s Tale, Love Island, Yellowjackets and Yellowstone.”
Given we renewed an expanded exclusive HBO deal just last year, I would be surprised if it ended in 2024. Possible, but would surprise me.
Shareguy posted this on the other site:
I would absolutely favour a divvy/special divvy combo and forget about the buyback.Quote:
Craigs BULLISH on sky. 50 cps cash back...wow
Insert from todays note
Overweight rating remains. Price Target $3.32 (prev. $3.20).
We retain our Overweight rating. Our 12-month target price has increased 4% and remains based on a one-year forward PE of 10x. We assume a FY22 35cps special dividend, along with a 15cps final dividend which provides a potential 50cps/20% return to shareholders within the next few months, and a hypothetical ex-dividend forward PE of 6.0x. We think FCF can support 22.5cps in ongoing dividends from FY23-FY26 at a 9.1% gross yield. This equates to 70% of our FCF forecast for the period vs. 50-80% payout policy. Key downside risks include: satellite churn, ARPU decline, cost of operational change & execution of technology path.
They are assuming a total payout of ~$90M though.
Would be amazing if that transpired - and the Board will be under pressure to return cash. They are conservative in anture though, so it would need a number of instos to make it clear what they expect.
Dividend/Special divvy the fastest way to get cash returned at this junction. As at 30 June 2021 they had $161M worth of imputation credits available.
Yes, I tend to share that sentiment given the overly conservative practices in the past.
The only thing that gives the Craigs view merit, I think, is that Bowman and the team will be under some pressure now by long-suffering institutional owners (after the MW fiasco). I do believe that investor patience has run a bit thin now.
And a 50cps payout is $87M.
That would still leave Sky with $60M+ in the bank - plenty of cash to draw upon to continue investing in broadband/STB/OTT while maintaining a healthy dividend.
I actually figured a total payout of abou $80M:
- $35M divvy
- $15M special divvy
- $30M buyback
Craigs payout expectation is only a little above that, the big difference is they expect it ALL to be paid out by dividend.
And, I think they are right in that a divvy/special divvy at this junction is the fastest and most tax efficient method to return cash to shareholders.
It has also been noted that doing a share buyback so soon after such a dillutory capital raise (at a much lower price) might raise some eyebrows too.
Would have thought there will be a few holders looking to exit after capital return also.
It appears HBO/WB have aligned all their international content deals to expire in 2024/25 - so they can launch HBOMax internationally unencombered
Today Disney reported that their Direct-to-consumer streaming services combined (Disney+ / ESPN+ / Hulu) now number more than Netflix. Other streamers are getting scared of getting left behind - its go big or go home now.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...57E7BCWXVXV3Y/
Wow, Disney+ now has more subs than netflix.
Americans will have to pay more to watch ad-free, and I am sure they will roll that model out internationally soon.
They need to dramatically increase revenue.
Quote:
Disney said paid subscriptions for Disney+ grew by 31 per cent, much of that internationally, over the same time last year. But revenue growth was not as strong due to operating losses from "higher programming and production, technology and marketing costs".
Just madness how these companies are killing themselves in the hope that they will become top dog and make large profits in the future. Netflix only just started producing earnings when they got knocked off their perch.Quote:
But Disney's direct-to-consumer segment, which includes its streaming operations, lost US$1.1 billion in the third quarter from its year-ago US$293m loss.
Content production costs have soared to unprecedented levels as these companies need to continually produce hit shows to attract growth in subs.
HBO-Warner look set to enter the fray. Their service would be very good, but I think they will be up against it if they think they will get anywhere near the subs that netflix and disney have. All the while Amazon making big ivnestments too...new shows like The Stand and the LOTR series will be popular.
Apple TV spending tonnes of $ on their service.
All to produce huge negative cashflows in the hope that it will 'come right' in the future.
Just madness.
It’s definitely a worry
There is an excellent pitch on Disney on the VIC forum from May 22 (I think). Poster does well to highlight the economics of linear vs streaming: it’s gonna take several years to see how this plays out. The poster predicted DTC EBIT is higher than linear EBIT at the end of the 2025 DIS year. Pretty reasonable/conservative assumptions too
As the holder of WBD, SKT and an unnamed European media s***co, I do wonder if it all gets rebundled at some point and we are back to Foxtel/Sky/Cable if you’re in the States 🤣
Fingers crossed for a reasonable capital return on the 25th
Sceptical posters have every reason to believe that Sky may fall short of expectations given the track record.
Let's just hope they do keep it simple by just returning cash via dividend + special divvy (given the vast amounts of imputation credits on the books) and not pursue a drawn out and questionable buyback.
We can come up with a range of outcomes depending on how stingy (or not) the Board is.
- I can't see the Board getting away with paying out any less than ~$50M in total (say 30cps). If they go this low without an incredibly good reason I think it will be a big disappointment to the market and 'dem gainz' we have seen in the last week will evaporate very quickly
- I can't see them paying any more than the Craigs prediction of ~$90M (50cps). That number would delight current holders, potentially boost the SP even more and still leave them with $60M or so in the bank to continue executing the strategy while maintaining a healthy dividend in future years
So if it is just going to be capital return by dividend (please God let it be so!) then we can confidently expect something in the order of 30 - 50cps - hopefully much closer to the top end!
We can probably narrow that down even further to 40cps - 50cps ($70M - $90M payout) because if they only paid $50M I think Philip Bowman and Joan Withers realise that they would lose their jobs. $70M is less than half of the cash they will have in the bank remember, paying out less than half of available cash would only get shareholder support if they had a bloody good reason for still hoarding so much cash (and they don't have a good reason to do so since the MW deal is dead and buried, and therefore need to cough this year big time).
Two bucks sixty...