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hi graham, i use a technique called elliot wave , each wave on any time frame fits into repeating patterns.
fib analysis is a primary part of the wave relationships.
the main trend is down , so looking to enter short , there is a confluence of fibs at the 78 level.
you can see the price has hit a brick wall at 78 which is what i would expect to see but price has not broken down yet.
can you see the up trendline has broken and been tested from the under side another good sign.
there is divergence on lower time frame rsi at the high another good sign.
there is other pattern stuff too making 78 look like a good place to go short .
always good to know where you will be wrong and for me that is 78.40
so risk reward is good as if correct should be going to mid 76.
gl
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Hi Graham,
and thanks DA for your timely post
I am in short and it certainly went higher and faster than I expected above 78...
Graham I am watching NZDUSD with 5, 10 and 60 minute charts with 10 and 20 moving averages (MA), SAR, (Stop and return), RSI and MACD also Bollinger bands.
I do not use EW and Fibs yet although I know what they are and DA is great with them.
Thks & rgds
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Gidday Graham
there is an excellent thread in the Forex section under Gartley and Butterflies
there are some great chart examples in there and the butterfly gartley are fib patterns
imo not as technical as elliot wave but a good place to start if you wanted to have a look
at fib levels etc
i have another job as well as trading.Im always on the lookout for butterfly patterns if they not around my focus is Donchian channels,cci and strong support resistance levels
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evening guys , should not have breached 78 which raises the possibilty of an ending diagonal.
this means the trend is still short but you have waves that overlap.
having a peep in the text books, 3 3 3 3 3 ending diagonal.
i dont like this one im getting out for - 30 pips .
good luck guys
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heres what could be going down.
either were still on track as stop has not been breached or as this is a fifth wave an ending diagonal unfolding.
doesnt change short target but it screws up the wave count as rules are different.
im out for the week
gl guys
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...99/endingd.jpg
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Awesome DA its been a very profitable period for you or should i say George s ,have fun in your corporate box over the weekend.
cheers
roddy
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Hi all,
Yes thanks DA for the latest post, I remain short on this trade.
Was encouraged when it went to 7803 at 10.40pm.
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well done toulouse , i shall log this trade as a moral victory even though it was not a financial victory.
have a great weekend.
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Hi DA and thanks for your great chart at 8.36AM yesterday.
As you say a moral victory for your approach.
Thanks also for your kind words, however I also took a 30 pip hit last night.
The entry 78 came while I was at dinner, so my market entry was lower than yours.
My SL was also higher.
To focus on a report for a mtg today and minimise the risk of hitting SL I moved my T1 to a 30 pip loss.
I intended to look at the screen every 10 mins or so and revise T1 and SL lower if the MA, and SAR etc continued to support this.
T1 was hit about 15 mins after my previous look...
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hey guys cheers 4 all the helpful comments i will def have a sift back through previous threads.
DA, ha you were right she shore did bounce down would of been a great short to get onto to, too bad i hit the sack early due to morning classes and missed it would of made a tiny little profit.
not shore if this is right but my charts nd ta tell me it will be closing soon and a long will be happening due to the MACD closing?this is on 30m view also the price oscill has hit its peak and coming back to zero?
cheers