A2M up 10c after NZX close yesterday. Is today the day of Results? Or will it be tomorrow......Friday at 4.30pm?.........opps
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A2M up 10c after NZX close yesterday. Is today the day of Results? Or will it be tomorrow......Friday at 4.30pm?.........opps
1H NPAT down 35% and another downgrade (margins and revenue down = big profit downgrade)...
The numbers were already falling apart, but now it appears the story is as well... and when the story begins to fall apart, Mr Market will no doubt be questioning if ATM is worth its current $8.3b...
Sub $10 on the open is my guess.
Piss poor really. 1.4m also presumes "significant improvement" on quarter on quarter performance. It's clear the daigou channel has fallen apart.
I was also surprised their cash position has decreased and they have so much inventory on hand.
Considering making my exit today. Late I know, but the story is only getting worse at this stage.
terrible numbers
gross margins down due to channel mix change
inventory blow out which they are having trouble selling thru
just to name a few maybe i post some more sobering facts later
You can work the numbers out for yourselves : THIRD DOWNGRADE
Outlook FY21
Globally there continues to be unprecedented levels of uncertainty and volatility due to COVID-19.
The Company remains confident in the underlying fundamentals of the business and will continue to invest behind the brand and in its capability to drive long term growth.
However, the pace of recovery in the daigou/reseller channel and in the CBEC channel has been slower than previously anticipated and the Company now expects revenue to be at the lower end of the previous guidance range.
A lower EBITDA margin range is now expected due to lower revenue, higher brand investment, longer daigou/reseller support, movements in foreign currency and adverse channel mix relative to what was anticipated in December.
Accordingly, the Company’s FY21 outlook is now as follows:
• Group revenue for FY21 in the order of $1.4 billion
• Group EBITDA margin for FY21 of 24% to 26% (excluding MVM acquisition costs)
The outlook for FY21 assumes the actions being taken to re-activate the daigou/reseller channel deliver a significant improvement in quarter-on-quarter growth from 3Q21 to 4Q21.
Second Downgrade : 18 Dec 2020
Our FY21 guidance as follows:
• Group revenue for FY21 of $1.40 billion to $1.55 billion
• Group EBITDA margin for FY21 of between 26 per cent and 29 per cent.
First Downgrade : 28 Sept 2020
an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as follows:
- Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million
- Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion
- Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.
Results for F20 : 19 August 2020
Total revenue of $1.73 billion, an increase of 32.8%
• EBITDA4 of $549.7 million, an increase of 32.9%
FUNDAMENTLS REMAIN STRONG they say in the headline
When all the Bs start posting here ...to me it means results are bad ...sure indication ...just waiting for the third also to say something here ...maybe soon ..lol :p
Revenue 2H20 TO 1H21
Diagou -$183.5M (-46.7%)
CBEC -$77.2M (-42%)
China label +22.1M (+11.6%)
China store footprint increase to 22k stores from 19.1k (+15%)
You would think big drop in Diagou + CBEC would = large growth (say 40%+) in China label. Heck you would at least think it would grow in line with the 15% increase in store footprint. Perhaps Chinese mothers think if its not an English label then why pay the premium price.
Balance - no sign of the big clean out by the new CEO
That stock adjustment doesn't count as part of any cleanout
Actually its not that bad ..its not a full downgrade ...just little more damped expectations ...so I dont feel it will be big down immediately ...maybe slow grind down as market will need to write off this year and many will like to exit and deploy funds somewhere else in the meanwhile as it will be dead investment here for 6-12 months