AIR - Air NZ.

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Originally Posted by 777

Maximum age would only be 6 years at the most. AirNZ oldest are already 4 years old. Would say it looked old to you due to lack of attention by the airline.

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Lack of attention is an understatement, tray table was broken, IFE didn't work properly and oxygen mask popped down from the ceiling on take off

Man this things getting hammered, a bad divvy strip, paper loss over double the divvy, won't be averaging down though. PS-Its behaving worse than TRA.Lol.

I sold out this morning. I believe the RR engine issue will provide protracted headwinds for AIR. C.L. would not be going to RR if there isn't a VERY serious issue and feedback from Benny1 that the ten version of the engine is showing preliminary indications of accelerated wear is a real worry as its these newly designed components that were expected to be the silver bullet to fix the problem, the same components I understand are being retrofitted to earlier iterations of that engine to fix their problems. How long will it really take to fix all these engine problems ? If RR don't know how to solve this problem could this be an ongoing systemic issue for this engine variant ?
When will these aircraft enjoy extended ETOPS ratings again, if ever, to make them suitable for some of the long haul routes AIR flies ?
Why are AIR stating that they expect a $30-40m hit to their FY19 result as a direct result of RR engine problems and why are they not getting compensation from RR for these costs ?
What reputational damage has been done to AIR in the last 9 months since major disruptions to their schedule started and is this enduring or temporary ?
I also note that oil has consistently been above their assumed forecast for the year in recent times and hit a 4 year high overnight. The lower $Kiwi will be exacerbating the fuel cost problem. All things considered my sense is the risk reward ratio is tilted towards risk at present.
P.S. Some management are selling down...join the dots...

Is it my imagination but my goodness...in addition to the daily grabaseat deals, Australia on sale Monday, Pacific Islands yesterday and Asia today. North and South America tomorrow and Europe on Friday then ? Are they actually having more sales than Briscoes ?

Probably just confirmation bias now that I've sold I think that AIR are keener to sell seats...probably always have been loads and loads of sales.
Wonder if there's a profit downgrade or implied caution with higher fuel prices at today's meeting ? Just as well they have those electric cars in their fleet, that'll save them HEAPS !

Its not your imagination, I’ve also noticed a large increase in their promotional activity.
Their sale fares are almost always at a higher pricepoint than others so I have not flown with them very often internationally.
Flying with Qantas to bali tomorrow, hopefully they’re as happy to give me an extra meal or two as last time :)


Hope its still less sales than Briscoes

Pretty Bullish presentation in terms of new routes, new planes, more growth and increasing tourism numbers, gearing up marginally, fuel headwinds cited. SP drifting lower on low volume, looks like retail fish having a swim around.

RR issues aren't going away any time soon mate, in fact not in the foreseeable future. Quite a few analysts on CNBC talking about a real supply demand squeeze in the oil market over the next 6 months in particular. Hope Iran doesn't try and bock the straight of Hurmuz like they're threatening too as retaliation for Trump's trade sanctions. Spike to ~ $100 a barrel isn't entirely unlikely in my opinion. Plenty of risk there, most of which is probably in the SP already.
Expecting to see $3 tested on any further spike in oil, any rise in geopolitical tension or any extension of the RR issues. Probably worth noting that 4% inbound tourist growth is well down on 10% a couple of years ago.

P.S. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...z-earningshtml

Just hold em and collect the divvies, thats what the Govt and Insto's are doing. I don't sell good divvy paying stocks for a loss anymore besides I do have a good number of them. PS-Depending on how things go before the next divvy I may resurrect the old Couta and go XXXXOS.Lol.

Over the last 15 months the share price has dropped by the equivalent of the three dividends paid and it is quite feasible that that trend will continue over the next three dividends.

However, while the TA guys like to sneer at buy and hold it has a very high success rate as a long term strategy, especially if you do not invest in airlines :).

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Originally Posted by Snow Leopard

Over the last 15 months the share price has dropped by the equivalent of the three dividends paid and it is quite feasible that that trend will continue over the next three dividends.

However, while the TA guys like to sneer at buy and hold it has a very high success rate as a long term strategy, especially if you do not invest in airlines :).

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Quite possible you are right as Coutts always reckoned about $2.50 was where its at for AIR. Could it go there again...maybe. Good that they are holding their forecast range for now but Tony Carter is effectively giving a veiled warning that we're headed toward the low end of that range if oil stays where it is and they might have to revise guidance down if oil goes further north.

Wonder how many nightmare liners are sitting idle on the ground without engines at present... Winner is right, those Trent 1000 engines are a lemon.