Originally Posted by
JeremyALD
So I was doing some research last night and had a good read of the Annual Report and ASM. I'm trying to make my own assumptions for NPAT in FY17 if things trend in a similar way for the rest of the year. I appreciate this is a long way out, but thought it would be fun to create some assumptions based on what we've heard so far.
My observations were below:
Hallensteins
Still a very competitive environment and unlikely to see sales growth in FY17. Flat so far this year. They may get a bit more margin from products this year, but competition is resulting in some margin cutting.
My guess is NPAT will be slightly up this year due to a better winter trading period and improved margins due to exchange rates ect. I predict NPAT at 9 million, up from 8.5 million in FY16.
Storm
Sales are actually behind so far this year, but they have opened a new store in Queenstown which should lift revenue and sales.
Guessing NPAT will be flat at .8 million, but for good measure and the new store will round up to 1 million.
Glassons Australia
Here's where the big turnaround will be and where I project long term will come from. In recent announcements, Hallensteins is confident the store will return to profit in FY17. Sales are up over 10% and the stores are seeing a good turnaround.
Guess is NPAT will be between 1 and 2 million, up from a loss of 1.9 million in FY16. I think results will further improve in FY18 which is great for the Group.
Glassons New Zealand
Improved margin is expected to be witnessed in FY17 and sales are up so far. Glassons NZ is always a solid performer and this year should be no different.
Based on the above sales increase estimating NPAT of 6 million up from 5.5 million in FY17.
Overall
Based on fairly conservative estimates and what the Group has announced I'm predicting NPAT for Hallensteins in FY17 in the range of 16 to 18 million. There will definitely be considerable improvement in the Glassons business, with fairly flat sales across Storm and Hallensteins; however higher margins should also improve their respective NPAT performance.
Performance should be fairly in line with the Groups performance in 2013 and 2015 and I would think all going well should support a SP above $3.50.