Push play reminds me so much of old technology - you know the those old heavy box TV and VCR with remote control days. Then I researched push play and realised it has nothing to do with TV...
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Push play reminds me so much of old technology - you know the those old heavy box TV and VCR with remote control days. Then I researched push play and realised it has nothing to do with TV...
I'm not waiting for 2019. Just started buying back in, got some on close tonight at 3.96, and not to worried if it drops a bit more, then will buy a bit more. Nearly sold 23,000, but changed my mind at the last minute and bought more and thought yeah investor or speculator;).
Just as well I'm not really into using stop losses otherwise this pup would be soon getting kicked out of the kennel, just trying to remember the main reason I bought it, something to do with the price doubling when it lists on the Nasdaq I think.
According to findata it has broken down through the 30 day MA at close today which is $3.976 Attachment 9409
Not an especially encouraging sign I would have thought.
Be Carefulllll have a look at US markets before saying it's oversold...
A healthy pullback to 30DMA and technically oversold - topped up based purely on this and not fundamentals ( even though the fundamentals are primo )
I have more orders sitting on 396, can someone please dump... thanks in advance.
Topped up at 400 yesterday, happy to accumulate more if it drops from here
Sold half my holding this morning for a loss, if this company is worth it's mettle, the other half will eventually bring me back into the blue and then some. Not sure what is going to hold the price up over the next few months other than oversold technicals.
Even with share price down about 10% and an appreciating NZD PPH is still trading on EV/Gross Margin multiple of about 18.
Pretty outrageous really looking at global valuations
Let’s not forget last big cap raise was at $1.51 last July. Targets haven’t really changed since then so an extraordinary amount of Optimism about the future has driven the share price to $4 plus.
Little wonder it’s falling back ....might even go to $3 and evev then those who bought in at $1.51 six months ago will have doubled their money
If they do what they say they are going to do... it is dirt cheap.
Good news is never far away from PPH it seems.
I bailed on this one. Bought at $4.36 9 days ago & bailed at $3.95. A bit too volatile for me. Over the years I have made lots of losses on Tech company's (and one nice gain in XRO). Moved my investment to OCA which may move a bit slower, but should be kinder on my nerves. I will still keep an eye on PPH & may buy back in at a later date.
I rode this thing from $3.00 to $4.10, then it went to $4.40!! I have been waiting for this wee correction, such a great company, sound fundamentals, delivering on targets and let's not forget NASDAQ! Very similar (I hope) to when it went to 3.70 then back to 3.20 if I recall correctly.
I've never been good at picking tops and bottoms (dirty habits) and prefer to take a longer term view. At the current SP PPH is well above my av holding/purchase costs, so no red ink for me (yet) and I'll continue to hold for the USA listing.
I still have faith! :t_up:
Likewise. Shares go up and they go down and providing the news is solid and company delivers what it says then no need to stress the bumps along the way. I bought PPH with a long term view so will continue holding. Wil still keep an eye and if it does dip too low then I wil be out - but a long ways to go before then.
This things bleeding like a Stuck Pig, Ouch. Where are you Beagle.:mad ;:
Hmm - I guess I always was somewhat sceptical about PPH (and still am). However - if a stock in a pristine uptrend moves through the MA30, but still stays well above the MA50, than I would not see that as the end of the world. I guess PPH was expected to drop a bit (with ACMR predicted to seasonally drop next quarter).
Again - I can see good reasons not to hold them, but if owners thought at buy-time after thorough research that this is a great company with huge growth prospects which so far was pretty good in keeping most of its promises (though there was something about being cash positive in the past - wasn't it?), than what exactly has changed?
Why selling them just because Mr Market has a bad day? Is this investing or trading - and what sort of strategy would that be?;);
Discl: hold a (wee) parcel - just for fun ;);
Posted Wednesday 17th...that was "code speak" for me selling half. I followed my gut instinct yesterday when the SP failed to rally on the back of booming U.S. markets incl Nasdaq and sold the rest.
Here's a summary of my concerns.
To annualize the peak December quarter of giving at first glance does seem a rather creative way to highlight the growth of the company. The fact that they have changed the basis upon which they calculate this ACMR several times to now show this in the best possible light and the fact that they have missed once already with a claim that they would be cash flow neutral by Q4 2017, now out to Q4 2018 does not give me the warm fuzzies. What if so called ACMR is well under $90m for Q1 2018...do they change the measurement basis again to show the current quarter in a better light ? Why not... they have done it so many times already ? Creative accounting 101. This bean counter, (who has a special dislike for creative accounting) is a little more cautious than I was previously.
I don't like the fact that future customer acquisition cost has been warned as being about 18 months revenue in the future, up from 12 months. Considering that customer growth per se was very modest for 2017 the inference here is one could conclude that the majority of the large low hanging fruit has already been picked ?
When one further considers that the vast majority of their growth in ACMR was from price growth per customer, not customer growth itself, (such price growth surely not being repeatable without customer resistance in the future ?), one starts to get a possible different scenario regarding future growth not being as robust.
Maybe they might miss with being cash flow neutral by Q4 2018 again ? Market may be far less forgiving the second time around in my view.
Someone told me they are capitalizing new customer acquisition costs, surely not ?
100 day MA is about $3.20. Very late last year this was about $3.40 before the inclusion in the NZX50 in early December forced a lot of institutions / fund index trackers hands in term of buying in. I don't think anything material has happened to the business since when it was trading around $3.40 apart from the arguably artificial price spike forced by the index inclusion.
Ironically enough we saw exactly this pattern of behavior when Comvita was included in the NZX50 some time back, an immediate price spike of 20% followed by it fairly quickly falling back to its earlier price. On those two bits of anecdotal evidence one might conclude that premiums caused by index inclusion are temporary in nature and a reversion to fair value usually happens fairly quickly. I guess at $4 I simply saw more short term risk than opportunity. Long term I am not so sure anymore. Most of the big Churches are already on board.
It’s horrible to see your share go down
On no news. I have given up growth tech companies who grow without profit. Maybe you should do the same...... unless you are trading of course. This company may still perform well ( make a profit), but until they make money I’m out
Let's see what happens next week, sell half, keep half is a sensible stategy depending on how far it falls, the trouble with a stock like this is it can be hugely oversold yet still keep falling. In your case, you are still in profit, in my case I paid too much for it so a line has to be drawn as to how low it goes before selling(I won't be waiting until it's dropped some large % as I have done with other tech stocks in the past)
It always amuses me how fickle some people are, when not a lot has changed. See you guys again in a couple of months probably.
Hi Beagle
Creative account is now widespread. My support for this company relates not to facts but peoples perception in the market . In my mind Atm appears to me to be founded on an unproven science but the story promotes their sales growth. Surely these guys are doing a similar thing. And with an expanded audience on the Nasdaq ?
Have a happy weekend.
-dodgy
h
Nothing has changed folks.
The current correction/adjustment brings the SP back to where it was a little over a month ago, that's all.
Yes, growth is seasonal due to Thanksgiving, Christmas and US Tax rebates falling in the December quarter.
Long-term, an amazing growth story though and one I predict to continue long-term.
People like me who have been in for years will now be overweight and I get selling a few to diversify.
My only concern is the prevalence of tithing vs. weekly donations in US churches. something I know to be common among Mormons and other major religions and something i've not seen referred to by PPH. Even then, they can easily diversify to other markets and pick up the low hanging fruit of weekly donors there, unless someone beats them to it.
I'm a long-term investor with these guys, so will stay in and may top up too
Technically the breakdown of the Sept-mid Jan steep trend line (daily) seemed certain to follow through to the downside, which it has. Hindsight is easy though, whereas foresight is not. I don't like steep trend line breaks, especially when there's ample room in the standard indicators to accomodate lower SP's.
Given the incredible rise during 2017 and notwithstanding some people will have been hurt by this down turn, technically there's a number of supports below here, beginning with the daily 50EMA, each providing an exit opportunity if broken. I wouldn't loose sleep unless it failed at the 2.60-2.65 support which seems highly unlikely at this stage. It could rebound anytime before then though. The question then, if you observe TA and are sensitive to large capital SP movements, is whether you have a trading plan, to mitigate losses by selling, or more optimistically when to buy back/in/top-up.
For those who recall me referencing weekly charts for a momentum trading perspective and to remove some of the daily SP noise, the weekly close today was the sell trigger closing below 3.885. The exit is a weekly close below 3.64. So some wiggle room left.
That's just a simple technical view, I agree with most of the longer term FA comments here and some of the concerns (albeit they seem minor in the scheme of things).
Those who know Push better than me a question - what you think ACMR will be for the December 18 quarter?
Because everyone raves about its long term prospects and how much the shares will be worth in a few years time, and then on the slightest bit of doubt suddenly people change their mind and sell. Having seen this happen in several threads over the last few years, if people just held onto their shares then in the majority of cases they would still have healthy gains today. I'll come back to this post in a year or two and see if it turns out to be the case here as well.
You may be mistaking this ShareTrader site for a Share Investor site?
There are a lot of traders here, and watching, who don't give a toss about future prospects except in as much as they can capitalise on it, but are adept at leveraging the ups and downs for capital gain. That is despite perhaps the larger volume of normal discussion being fundamental, whereas when it turns ugly the technical discussion tends to emerge because many seem to like to have a perspective on the exits.
PPH is unlike most of the glory shares talked about here, as it relies purely on capital SP movements because it doesn't make a profit or pay a dividend and therefore doesn't qualify for any of the 'investor' ideals that many see as important decision criteria to put their money on the line
Just saying. See you in a year or two when you come back, but in the meantime the savvy traders will have made killing on PPH, more more volatile the better, while the investors (who hold) will have a very decent profit to justify their confidence and commitment.
Cheers
BAA
From the 9th Jan
Attachment 9422
Sometimes a stock really wants to teach you a lesson. But sometimes I just won't listen.
ATM behaved very similarly to this in 2015/2016 and has never paid a dividend. Don't see no-one complaining about that now.
PPH is at a swing point in its development that, if executed well, could see it go to $10 plus (esp. if US listing proceeds).
I ballsed up on ATM and got out earlier than should have, despite nice profit. I intend not making the same mistake here.
Ok, calm down everyone. The 15,000 sold at close was me. I bought too many in the last 3 weeks with all the hype. I think I'm down over $25,000 at the moment. Am selling biggish chunks and buying them back again at a lower price for tax reasons. Did the same 15 months ago with AIR taking it down to $1.715, and then it went up again and made big profit. So keep cool to after school. ps drcjp above is right, it happen to ATM in the past lots of times. PPH is only in a temporary down until it goes up again. But be ready for the up, it could happen anytime;). sw reporting from Piha
The idea that a 10-15% consolidation after a fundamentally driven rally receiving such a bearish reaction and people beginning to line up at the exit is indeed amusing.
Sentiment on here seems to be dictated by the price movements as opposed to the underlying business at hand.
If you have trouble valuing fast growing loss makers, don't touch em.
SKO/PPH/XRO to name a few... would you look at that, they seem to offer the best returns as well... also like to add A2 milk which not too long ago was making a loss.
For reference XRO ACMR price multiple = 10.9x on the back of 30-40% growth in a fiercely competitive space. ( disc; I own XRO )
PPH.NZ 3Q18A 3Q19F^40% 3Q19F^80% ACMR 149.62m 209.5m 269.3m Multiple 6.97x 5.06x 3.87x
Interesting emotions being shown on this thread of late.
Sent a link to the thread to my friend at the LSE. He’s into Behavioural Economics and always on the lookout for raw data / material as to how investors think and behave
ATM has not always made a profit. Interestingly, some of the traders who exited PPH recently are also ones that (I recall) exited ATM 'too early' (their words) ie when it wasn't making profits while making huge sales advances.... Investors who took a longer term view on ATM are now up 1600% or more.
IMHO the long term view is also makes much more tax sense. I personally struggle with Sea Weed's logic of selling 15,000 "for tax reasons." When it comes to tax I prefer the KISS principle, and long term tax free capital gains.
Clearly recent comments re ACMR growth have spooked some, so the PPH SP has dropped/corrected, whether this is temporary correction or a sign of a longer term malaise, time will tell. However, my gutometer tells me that PPH have a record of delivering what they forecast and given the prospect of a USA listing I suspect management will be extremely focused on making this a successful reality.
It's going to be interesting to watch PPH over the next 12 months.
I think going long is best for most people but doesn't suit some personality types, going long versus trading is like comparing a flat white to a double Expresso, for many being constantly active in the market provides a lot of satisfaction and provides constant interest rather than boredom. I understand what see weed is doing and why, in his situation it is advantageous.
I must say that reading this thread does give a fascinating insight into fear and greed.
Despite reading this thread, I don't follow the company itself closely because I am one of those 'old school' investors that BAA refers too who demands that a company 'makes a profit' before my investment hound's nose goes into action. I do appreciate that software companies can grow quickly and that new customers and incremental sales can turn a loss making venture quickly into a profitable one. (this is in contrast to something like ATM which needs physical product to sell, so I know for sure that A2 milk production cannot be ramped up to meet ATM investor expectations., which is how I know for sure that ATM is currently overvalued). But I also know that what seems to be the 'best' software in a market segment can still be usurped, and PPH shareholders could be left with nothing. So what we have here is a classic 'high risk' 'high return' investment scenario.
As Winner has noted the 'EV/Gross Margin multiple' of about 18 (a new statistic that has been invented for companies that make no money and so can't be analysed using traditional metrics) is above the industry average. This has become proof enough, to the PPH disciples, that nothing will go wrong and that as long as the share price keeps going up, then no fundamental analysis is required.
To reinterpret the comment that Ggcc made, the idea that you can have growth without profit is a relatively new investor concept. 'Growth' used to be synonymous with 'growth in profit' and I find it somewhat disconcerting that this old rule no longer applies. As with all investment bubbles, what tends to happen is that new investors find that the old rules do still apply, but only after all after the inevitable crash. I am not saying PPH will crash because amongst all the losers there will also be winners. But sorting out who the winners and losers will be in advance is a problem to this FA investor.
If I was to invest in PPH, I would be looking not for a path to breakeven cashflow but a path to actual profit. Then when investors find how small the profit really is, what sort of 'multiple deflation' investors can expect as a consequence. Of course as with all 'speculative investments' no serious study as to what the profit might be is ever carried out. And then 'investors' are 'surprised' when the share price collapses.
I will save my next post on this thread for when PPH makes a profit. I guess that means, very likely, this is my last post on this thread?
SNOOPY
How long will A2 have to continue thriving for you to concede that you are wrong on that milk theory?
Would hate to see a market where everyone shares your understanding or lack thereof of high growth loss makers ( there wouldn't be any around because no one would fund them )
As you said, you do not follow PPH... but somehow you know for certain so many things about their future... I do find that odd.
Growth on EARTH in 2018 is quite simple - sales growth, customer size and volume growth, increasing market share, brand awareness and geographical reach.
all in all, old school investors will have fewer and fewer options on offer as time goes on and some are happy to adapt to the market as it is instead of reaching for one that used to be.
I think this thread is getting a bit ridiculous. This was one of the most picked shares for the competition, they just delivered fantastic result and nothings really changed. This remains a sound business listing in the US within the next year. The SP is still close to all time highs and has more than doubled over the past 12 months.
Snoopy your comment about them most likely "never making a profit" is ridiculous and based on no merit whatsoever.
One tip for those who understand how to value these companies - if snoopy says he isn't in it, jump in quick!
A number of times I tried to convince snoopy ATM was a great future investment (when the SP was at 50c) with him insisting it should have a value of 10c (which would have been fantastic too I suppose). And only about 3-4 short years ago!
That should be your investment time frame if you want to maximise your returns. Look for high growth companies who keep delivering and have a huge market opportunity in front of them. Two come to mind PPH (modernised giving) and SKO (disruption in the travel/expense management space, used in our office, almost perfect software) .
ACMR is the most recent month / quarter’s revenue x 12 or x4. When growth is rapid, it is a helpful way to extrapolate. Eg if 3 Quarters are $1m, $3m, $4m, then ACMR would be $4m, $12m, $16m. If the next quarter is $3.25m, ACMR drops to $13m (these are example $s only. Nothing to do with actual PPH numbers). As long as the next quarter is >$3.5m, all looks good still. Not necessarily a big concern then with regard to PPH. In addition, ACMR is only their contractually committed revenue. They also derive transactional revenue which I believe is in addition to the ACMR and will see bigger fluctuations, I would expect. (although I haven’t gone back to check their reporting on these - am at the beach on mobile only). I’m long PPH because i see a large market that they can dominate and because they appear to have excellent management that delivers on promises. I also anticipate continued and additional institutional buying.
I'm guessing you're not long from $4 though. And this is the point. Its much easier to be a long term holder from say less than $2 compared to being long from $4, even though technically you would both suffer the same reduction in asset value when it goes to say $3. Despite the fact that it will possibly be $6 in a year or two the later investor 'feels' the volatility a lot more. Apart from the fact that they stand to lose more should the unthinkable happen and it go to zero.
I think you will find that Push's ACMR includes both the committed subscription fees and processing fees (their gross cut of the gifting)
Subscription fees make up ~30% of their revenues so you would expect that if ACMR was calculated only using the committed subscrition fee sit would be about $30m/$35m
That's how I see it anyway
Enjoy the beach ...but take care
Yep - ACMR takes into account transactional and subscription fees.
Due to the influx of transactions leading into Thanksgiving and Christmas in Q3, ARPC cools off leading into Q4.
As has been case since PPH began.
Attachment 9427
They have done this in the past where their revenues and customer base were half the size of what they are now.
Not sure why the notion of ACMR being slightly lower than peak period is something that could spook anyone.
Attachment 9428
Put it this way, A2M sales during Q3 out over 3 quarters would have an ACMR of $1bn +/-.
Most are not daft enough to be even slightly worried by a lower number in the following quarter as we know what a peak period looks like.
That’s why actual revenues (and actual cash received) is the only real guide as to how sales are going
Good they are starting to talk about this from June.
Useless piece of information — Pushpay only received ~US$30m of cash from customers in the 12 months to September. Not much for a company valued at a billion dollars is it
End of the world kind of stuff...
So come Sept 2018 we will not receive $106.4m but actually 102... only 240% growth...
Extrapolate that sort of incremental ( not proportional ) growth over the next 3 years and you can see why it is a buy at current price.
Nasdaq would be a nicer place to be for PPH... hoping they drop NZX and move to a sole listing in US.
Help me out here a bit mate...struggling to get my head around this. $US29.2m = $40m Kiwi and market cap is just over $1b Kiwi so, (forgetting about this creative ACMR stuff for a minute) its actually trading on slightly more than 25 times real net cash received in 2017, correct ?
How's that going to go on the NASDAQ when these tech companies often trade on 11 times revenue ?
Suppose I'm just a traditional investor at heart too, much like the other dog on here, actually strongly prefer real earnings not all this creative hogwash terminology...and if its not real earnings then at the very least I want to know the real cash coming in.
[QUOTE=Beagle;700623]Help me out here a bit mate...struggling to get my head around this. $US29.2m = $40m Kiwi and market cap is just over $1b Kiwi so, (forgetting about this creative ACMR stuff for a minute) its actually trading on slightly more than 25 times real net cash received in 2017, correct ?
How's that going to go on the NASDAQ when these tech companies often trade on 11 times revenue ?
Suppose I'm just a traditional investor at heart too, much like the other dog on here, actually strongly prefer real earnings not all this creative hogwash terminology...and if its not real earnings then at the very least I want to know the real cash coming in.[/QUOTE]
And maybe you can help me out mate. If the above is your thinking, what made you invest in PPH in the first place ???
[QUOTE=hardt;700587]Yep - ACMR takes into account transactional and subscription fees.
i bow to your greater knowledge but I don't quite see how Transactional Fees (or Volume Fees as they describe them in PPH presentations) can be part of ACMR as they are not committed and depend upon the amount donated any given month (unless churches committed to a bundle of transactions package for a contracted period, which i assume is not the case given this recent comment by Heaslip: "...our goal is to reach the milestone of US$10 billion in Annualised Monthly PaymentTransaction Volume". AMPTV would seem to me to be quite different from ACMR - but quite possible I am not understanding this correctly. If someone can clarify for sure, would be appreciated.
AMPTV is just the dollar value in transactions facilitated by PUSHPAY...
Donations are a recurring necessity for most Christians throughout USA attending church... tithes as well.
As they essentially have the rights to their customers incoming donations ( which is most if not all of that churches revenue )
Value of donations to churches organically increases every year in USA.
Most SaaS companies use ACMR inclusive of transactional costs but they exclude one off sales like hardware or set up etc...
Targeting 10bn AMPTV represents 1bn in GaaP revenue apparently... because they know certain people ( wink wink ) don't like to use ACMR despite it being the metric of choice for key tech analysts and valuations globally.
[QUOTE=gbogo;700628]Yes ACMR and AMPTV are different beasts
The AMPTV is the value of transactions processed (mainly gifting at this stage). Push take a cut of this (transaction fees).That cut is what Push record as revenues — and part of ACMR
Yes these transaction / volume aren’t really “committed”. The logic for including in ACMR is that there is a high probability that the same amount will happen in the future. Then again many might even more.
Gbgogo — with all the answers you are getting you should be guru by now.
BeagleQuote:
Suppose I'm just a traditional investor at heart too, much like the other dog on here, actually strongly prefer real earnings not all this creative hogwash terminology...and if its not real earnings then at the very least I want to know the real cash coming in.
IcemanQuote:
And maybe you can help me out mate. If the above is your thinking, what made you invest in PPH in the first place ???
Good question. Thinking back I did think they would be growing EPS strongly within a year or two after saying they would be cash flow neutral by Q4 2017, (missed). This was probably a bit naïve on my part. So since my original investment they've :-
1. Missed on delivering that they were going to be cash flow neutral in Q4 2017
2. Changed the way they measure ACMR several times last year, (to show it in the best light ?)
3. Already have 50 of the largest churches on board, one presumes some or nearly all the other largest churches either aren't interested or use alternative apps
4. Moving cost of new customer acquisition out to 18 months revenue from 12 indicating most of the low hanging big fruit has already been picked
5. Share price has roughly doubled
My perception that growth is slowing quite considerably compared to what they've experienced in the past makes me wonder if they'll meet their new target of cash flow neutral by Q4 2018 ? I thought there was good money to be made when I first started investing and growth would see this company REAL earnings positive within a few years, now I am not so sure and the price rise since I first invested has made me think there might be other real EPS growth companies that are lower risk but still high growth, ATM and Synlait spring readily to mind.
I have ALWAYS preferred real earnings growth to creative other terms used by tech companies. I guess my investment naivety was that I thought the pathway between cash flow neutral and real EPS would only be a year or two and I invested "punted" on that basis. Silly mistake really, profitable one but silly nonetheless.
I should probably leave tech investing for people who are really into this sort of thing, (no disrespect intended to any holder).
Who is buying 33,000 at 3.86? Anyone on this forum? I got back in at 3.80 this morning.
This is definitely NOT a typical Couta go big or go home stock to hold.
Slightly pricey at 10x ARR ($1B/$100M ARR) so I would be looking at their chances of a US listing to maintain this high valuation. High chance they might be a takeover target for a payments company. I also like that a huge number of their team are in US so would reduce takeover risk.
I still think this is already built into share price (IMO currently 30-40% over priced).
So all that being said, what is going to make them an attractive investment on the nasdaq? I said a long time ago the one worry I had was that once they exhausted the fast growth with the chain churches,the smaller,many many smaller churches were going to be more difficult and expensive to pick up. So my question is how are they going to sell the listing,or is it going to be like the Aussie listing and get pummeled.
Analysts will look into their medium term target of 10% market share of the church giving space and make up their mind, likely come to agreement that even if they hit 1bn in sales they would have an ocean full of opportunities left.
Think about how how many Churches have adopted Pushpay in as little as 3 years...
Also worth remembering the platform is not a unitasker and is built to do more than facilitate church donations within the confines of USA alone.
There was something in the news around a month ago about how charities in NZ were now able to collect donations by having a terminal in certain retail stores. Customers would be asked if they wanted to donate to the charity at the checkout, and if so, they use the terminal to make an electronic donation. Is that something that PushPay could get into?
Always found those to be a bit of a nuisance haha.
I am sure they will do whatever presents the best returns for shareholders... might be a long time before they need to branch out and away from church giving.
Read somewhere that churches in Europe have started leasing eftpos machines to facilitate cashless donations as cash baskets are drying up.
I agree with you Schrodinger — but still ‘invested’ in PPH because as long as punters believe the story the share price will reach new heights
I still contend that the $100 odd ARR is not really what it is because about 40% of it is shunted off to VISA, MasterCard and other third parties straight away. Quite a few analysts eliminate cost of sales of this nature when assessing SaaS companies. So I reckon your 10x is closer to 16x.
So maybe your mention of PPH being 30% to 40% overpriced might be a good assessment ...some say I’m foolish holding if I believe it is way overvalued but I respond as long as I think there are greater fools out there I may as well continue to hold.
This is more of a note to shorter term investors seeking quick profits within a year. Longer term you arent going to worry too much buying in at these levels as you need a slice FOMO. Might be better to split your purchases if unsure about direction.
I agree on the margins and if I had more time I would look into Paypal and a few other who I think would have low gross margins due to being a payments company. Strategically I would also be looking for network and platform effects for the company. If they are strong then they can be a nice bolt on and/or they can add extra "features" to their customer base.
The global financial sector is renowned for M&A as the back office can be automated/merged to a high degree.
Some big trades going through today... Big funds still buying?
Thank you for kind suggestion. The answer is 'yes,'
BTW - I checked my records. I purchased WYN at 1.74 and sold at $1.91 Not a bad exit strategy considering what later happened. Sorry to hear of your loss with WYN and can fully understand why you are watching PPH carefully.
Lance Wiggs wrote a pretty solid piece about Wynyard...
https://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/what-c...administration
"That same interim report, dated six weeks ago on September 12, 2016, noted: “It is the considered view of the directors that the company and group will have access to adequate resources to continue operations for at least a period of 12 months from the date of signing these interim financial statements.” But later noted: “The directors are in the process of undertaking a strategic review of the group’s operations and product portfolio. This review also includes an assessment of the plans should one of more of these material uncertainties result in an adverse impact on the forecast cash position of the group.” That second statement is normally code for major changes, including redundancies, in a business. But, while the investor presentation released at the same time as the interim report itself showed Wynyard had already reduced staff from 306 to 250 FTE, it is clear today that the process had not continued, at least not aggressively enough. At over $20 million in annual revenue and $10 .8 million in cash, Wynyard easily had enough funding to support 150 highly professional people but not 250 people and their associated spend. The board needed to make the costcutting decisions earlier, well before administrators were called in to make it for them"
Good for you on your trade and thanks for your comment. I was told to enter PPH when it was worth $1.80 per share but due to my loss on Wynyard I was inclined not to. Instead I invested in a2 which was easy as it makes a profit.
I for one hope PPH takes off like a rocket. I love success for kiwi companies
Interestingly found 3 analysis valuations on 3 different sites PPH TP $4.86 with Strong Buy recommendation
Yahoo
4Trader
Wall St
Good on you.....I hope ATM continues to serve us both well!
Interestingly a lot of the current uncertainty around PPH's value is from those that entered late. Had you entered at $1.80 you would have a considerable safety margin around the current uncertainty (which I deem is a healthy correction.) Time will tell which school is right.
Like you I'm v proud of the success of NZ companies. We are a great little country and a v safe place to invest. (Well, apart from WYN.......tho' even our failures are learning opportunities!!)
Does anyone know if Piefunds still own PPH? They published a very bullish report in Nov15 and owned the stock then. It doesn't appear to me that Piefunds have held PPH for sometime so possibly they sold late 2016/early 2017 which possibly helps to explain the share price under-performance back then? I would be interested to know what Piefunds thinks of PPH now given their early holding/bullish report.
Note: I own PPH from mid last year so I've got a lot of breathing room. I view the recent sell-off as a healthy correction but I'm weary. PPH has got a good track record (as far as I'm aware) of delivering on what it promises so unless that breaks down I'm going to try and ride it out.
A good start to the day. I suspect the Beagle has regained FAITH and is buying up large :-)
"crochet" stock ?? Attachment 9433
It may be a bit early to call this..... some would say today is a 'dead cat bounce.'
That said, my Left Field view is that the descent below the 30 MDA which some saw as a trigger to sell is a tab too sensitive for some high growth stocks. Add to that the volatility of Dec/Jan trading and there is a distinct possibility some got spooked a tab early.
Time will tell on this one, but I'm happy holding at the moment!