Update of last post - met the minimum target precisely at 0.6621 and has since bounced. Has it enough juice to get back to .6800 for another sell?
http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/9129/nzd3lk.png
Xerof
Printable View
Update of last post - met the minimum target precisely at 0.6621 and has since bounced. Has it enough juice to get back to .6800 for another sell?
http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/9129/nzd3lk.png
Xerof
No juice left in the tank!! Another test of 127.2% at the moment, so if broken, the lower targets come into play, see post of 17/2
Xerof
Hmmm quite a severe sell off against the Kiwi tonight particulary at 8PM, so far down 1.5c today. Wonder what triggered it off?
Appears the Kiwi broke a significant support level a few days back and is now in freefall.
wow its still going even after last nites plunge!!!
Peat, its reached and exceeded the 161.8% target shown in my chart of the 17 Feb. I'll try and update something this afternoon.
Xerof
Peat, an update - crude and without the inevitable wrinkles, but the best I can suggest right now....
the two step in leg D is encouraging for further declines
http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/3153/nzd2zg.png
Regards
Xerof
a particular distaste for the NZD seems to be continuing. Note that Aud cross rate sky rocket !!
Hi All
.6347 is an important Gann number,
so there might be some hesitation there.
But I really think in the longer term
circa .5650 area could be a possibility.
GTA - arco
Nice turnaround off the Gann .6347 as expected for circa 85 pips
presently.
GTA - arco
Good ol Helen hey
;)Quote:
quote:Comments from PM Helen Clark, currently visiting the Philippines, are being blamed. She said the NZD was not currently weak and that falls in its value was positive for NZ
exporters.
That's put the presure back on
Cheers
Slam
Hi All
Anyone think this is going to bounce?
Oversold on many aspect, but defying the charts as far as that goes
Cheers
Slam
The Danes have been sayin that AUD and NZD are vastly oversold and have been predicting a bounce.... she was even talking about the monthly chart...but that was about 1.5 cents ago....
In my demo trading I've had a couple of attempts at longing it, but both times my relatively tight stops got eaten.... wasnt thinking it would get hit so hard this morning.....
As they say, catching falling knives can be quite dangerous.
I think there might be some statistics out this week too which will of course be spookingly bad no doubt.
Peat, well its had a couple of wrinkles along the way as suggested, with the fine tuning courtesy of Arco, but my chart of 10 days ago still looks like playing out....ahem....then wot? he says...lol
Xerof
Quote:
quote:some danish fx chick
AUD/USD and NZD/USD
are being slammed right
now due to heavy stop loss
buying of EUR/AUD and
EUR/NZD. I consider it
only a matter of time before
the commodity currencies
will revenge themselves and
start climbing against the
dollar.
have longed again at 6240 (almost your target Xerof)
It's days like this that you hate being right. A month ago, I said that it broke significant support level and that it was in free fall, and in free fall it is... Infact you could almost call it a crash.
Although I managed to get the bulk of my savings into overseas investments in accordance with my plans in the past year or so, I Misjudged the potential impact/severity of this move and it still caught me by suprise
IMHO, this is clear indication that the relentless bull we had in the NZD currency is now over and now we are in a NZD bear.
http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/econom...nge/nzdusd.htm
Does anyone think its time for a small bounce to say 64-65c USD
[|)]
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Alpine Dragon
It's days like this that you hate being right. A month ago, I said that it broke significant support level and that it was in free fall, and in free fall it is... Infact you could almost call it a crash.
Although I managed to get the bulk of my savings into overseas investments in accordance with my plans in the past year or so, I Misjudged the potential impact/severity of this move and it still caught me by suprise
IMHO, this is clear indication that the relentless bull we had in the NZD currency is now over and now we are in a NZD bear.
http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/econom...nge/nzdusd.htm
Hi BackOffice
just a thought, but .5934 could provide some support (May 04 low)
In unfamiliar territory atm and all I have is a tight stop following it down;)
AUS/NZD top at 1.1784 will fit nicely with that.
Monthly charts are ominous
Would be about right, the last time it was this low I was off to Aus for a break, and I just booked some tickets for me and Mrs Slam[}:)]
Any other thoughts out there in Gann Land;)
Cheers Slam
PS: just back from a gig, not just sitting up all night[:o)]
Hi All
Flat as she goes atm. Finally closed. (Same with AUD/NZD long)
Longest trade I've had:)
Still think .5934 possible but other things to watch for a while.
Will wait for a bounce for round 2 maybe.
Cheers
Slam
good time to convert back to NZ?..
converting to pouds at 71c was the best ivestment I made this year so far.
Hi Pimpit
Depends on your trading time frame.
By the sound of your post, you are not using a trading account, just exchanging currencies, hence I gather you are long term.
If so imo, the kiwi has a way to go yet, against the USD anyway.
(don't follow GBP/NZD)
In the short term, it may come back up a bit, but I believe it will be a short lived bounce.
Others may differ from this theory
Any other points of view out there?
Cheers
Slam
And there starts a bounce[8D]
.6250ish first stop on the daily A
.6140ish on the Hour(a)
Cheers
Slam
Edit: thought I'd add the hour;)
Not ready, just yet, to close my NZD shorts. More news later in week. But yes looking like the bottom of the curve for a while anyhow. Big action expected next year with the Jap house wives getting out, boy are they going to be out of the money with their bonds.
sold NZD at 6102
awaiting the anticipated OCR tomorrow.
stop at 6121
ill place a limit at 6076 :P
wish me luck
btw peeps, how do u register for like announcements in interest rates, economic data etc,and where u get em from?
nzherald? thats usually delayed news..
Well
close to the hourly and then down again for a new low
(Good call Dazza;))
Will stay out and see where this settles
.5934 may still come into play yet
Cheers
Slam
ah yes cool 50 bucks AUD made :P
yes i was tinking of not putting a limit in, but arcos words always stayed in the back of my mind.
take profits while u can in fx :D
I see that it's continuing it's relentless crash.
yes made another 40 pips when i was at work
had a limit at 6023
not bad at all :P
Resistance at or about 0.60. Looks like the shorts tried to run .60 but found buying.
My guess is that it will do it tough to breach 0.60 in any meaningful way without some more fundamentals shaking the tree. The bad news will come and I do not think many have an appetite to be long in Kiwi at the moment.
Is this the bounce or just an upward leg to greater highs.
Any charts Xerof
seriously looking like the bounce was dead cattish....
Backoffice,
Its trending, and agree with Peat regarding cats bouncing.
There should be quite a number of dead cats littered along the way.
Here's a weekly chart for the bigger picture...the Dynamic Gann Line has held it at 60 cents so far...but don't count on it forever
http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/3677/nzdw5yr.png
Xerof
on my cmc platform
regarding news, some commentator said 6080 is prooving to be resistant?
we are reaching that... trigger ready for shorting but... but ...
Next door called there cat Thud as it did not bounce when it hit the wall.
Maybe this is a thud to .61 rather than a bounce to .63-.64
Is there a W forming at .6165 and what would it mean[?]
i thinking that theres a reasonable possibility of the com-dols showing some life at this stage, and these will possibly drag the beleagured kiwi up with them , but it will , or at least should , underperform relatively to the others over anything other than the very short term.
Hence I am liking the Aud/Nzd long.
Interesting to see the dollar get as high as .6240 yesterday. Will it drift further upwards in the next couple of weeks?
Had a nice entry order BUY executed at 1am on the 13th @ 6125 when announcements were made in the US. The price literally spiked down to 6125, and shot back up again. Closed @ .6200
Almost makes up for all the times I've been too greedy and set an order too low/high over night , and wake up to find the price comes within 5 pips of said order and races off in the other direction! =)
Drunk_Russian
I know what you mean, i though the bounce was over but have taken a 100 point loss, "bugger".
I am starting to look at the possibility of this turning bearish.
theres divergence on my 3hour graph and I'm seeing a triangle form on the hourly since May 4th which it may have already started to break on the downside.
Not gonna bet the farm on this , it could just be consolidating, but have sold one at 6417 with a ridiculously tight stop at 6435.
Hi Pete
Tend to agree
just below the 38.2 Fib from Dec/05 to April/06
and the AUD/NZD still putting presure on the Kiwi.
Tight stop though bud:)
Cheers
Slam
Nice call Pete:)
Cheers
Slam