As the election campaign wraps up, opinion polls say the wave that swept Labour from 24% to par with National in polls -- the Jacinda effect -- has receded a bit.
Nevertheless, Ardern might be Prime Minister in a three-way deal with the Greens and New Zealand First. That was a near-unthinkable prospect on July 31 and testifies to her extraordinary public appeal.
National built part of the dam across the Ardern wave by fabricating a non-existent $11.7 billion "hole" in Labour's fiscal projections and an imaginary Labour income tax "increase".
That dirty politics sullied churchgoing Catholic Bill English and his party. But National has come out the largest party, able to do a twosome deal with New Zealand First if the polls are right. So, a 10-cent bet on English? Only with a hedge or two, as in my column's non-forecast on Tuesday, the irony in which some may have missed. Two hedges in effect amount to a bet each way, that is, no bet -- no forecast.
That is because the prime ministership can go either way if New Zealand First decides the government. Winston Peters has laid down what read like blocks to both parties, most recently on water in Labour's case and an assertion yesterday that "neither" Steven Joyce nor Simon Bridges "are fit to hold office". But Peters is a sphinx. Words can have multiple meanings.
Whichever way the sphinx leans, there has been more to the "Jacinda effect" than whether she or English is Prime Minister next term. The Labour party has been rebuilt in confidence and finance back to competitive status with National, at least for the next while. Its caucus will be stronger as a result.
And, while Ardern is not a revolutionary, she has opened the door to a path towards a different way of doing things from the prevailing ideology of the past three decades. Her pointer has resonated with large numbers of the younger cohorts who will have to live through very different conditions in the 2020s, who do want a different way of doing things and who will in future be the majority.
That these changes are now in the frame is the "Jacinda effect" in her first seven and a-half weeks as leader.
Colin James, (64)-21-438 434, PO Box 9494, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz, www.ColinJames.co.nz