If it falls back to the lows of 2016 - around $1.80 - I'm in! :t_up:
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If it falls back to the lows of 2016 - around $1.80 - I'm in! :t_up:
All the evidence you need that global growth is slowing and the domestic economy is very weak is right there in plain sight for all to see.
As you quite rightly state Winner this is a 16% downgrade at the mid point of the respective forecast so I would expect a ~ 10% SP correction given that this affects current year earnings and may have some roll on effect to FY20. Its not a permanent impairment on their earnings ability and I think the company is right to review its cost base and I am trusting the calibre of the management to do a comprehensive job in that regard.
The Rolls Royce issue will hopefully be mostly finalised in 2019 so again hopefully this is not a permanent impairment on their future earnings capability. I think talk of a massive correction in the SP is overdone. The fall this morning to around $2.82 a few minutes ago when I looked is probably already overdone in my opinion but sentiment will remain weak for some time so anyone looking to top up probably has time on their side.
Posted this on thl thread a while ago
Maybe the signs for this ‘slowing growth in leisure travel in NZ’ were already out there
Quote:
Net migration is falling and the government want it to fall faster.
This is an interesting insight from my mate Rodney -
“It probably isn't a coincidence that net tourism and net migration have started to fall at roughly the same time much as occurred after the previous booms in the first half of the 2000s. It seems that around the same time the permanent net flow of people turns up or down the temporary flow driven mainly by tourists does the same. As covered in our housing and building reports there are good reasons for expecting further sizeable downside in net migration. By implication that implies that net tourism will probably fall further ......”
http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/TourismThreatOct17.pdf
I have a lot of respect for Rodney... worked with him many years ago. straight up sort of dude who isnt afraid to stand out from the crowd. I must admit I was a bit lucky to have ditched my holding recently simply due to cutting down exposure in this bearish market.
I didn't expect to invest again in AIR after collecting a nice profit in June 2017 (Sold for $3.18). Couldn't resist the temptation of $2.85 so am now back in with a small parcel & watching for any further discount.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12198445
Good Chris Luxon is taking the cost cutting seriously and leading the team doing that review...they need to be thorough. What would be helpful is if all unions were mindful that economic conditions are starting to slow and are cognisant of that with their more realistic expectations going forward.
Start at the top and work slowly downward.