Typical log periodic behaviour
On way back to another all time high
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Typical log periodic behaviour
On way back to another all time high
Shucks ....that was a bad day on US markets
Backdown to where it was a coupe of months ago
Was Jesse right after all .....long way down from 2020 is the S&P500
What's going on Hoop
Down 1% plus ...then up 1% plus ....and now almost capitulation?
Everyone who thought they were in the clear yesterday walked in today and got punched in the face," said Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners.
fromm cnn money site
another quote--
"the only thing Im currently bullish on is volatility at this stage''
Seems like the dipsters may have finally got their arses kicked....eh?
Most of the correction warnings and other fundamentals from market theory have cried wolf these last couple of years... so, human nature says to ignore liars ... and the dipsters did just that and were well rewarded.....Life's a bit like this, doing all the wrong things and being rewarded for it..eh?
Its always after the big crash, we hear from the so-called Genius's that the market was well overvalued and all the signs were there,... "so what were you thinking????? Why did you get clobbered by the market??? you are an experienced enough investor not to be caught up in it at the time...so why why why???"...
When the market is roaring ahead and ignoring all the Laws of Market Physics ...do you really want to watch from the sidelines?..especially if you are a funds manager..eh?
And if you are managing funds and "all in" reaping the rewards of the roaring market, yet, knowing deep down the market is crazily overvalued...do you tell all your clients in a newsletter to sell?....No of course not, because it will take weeks months? to divest the fund..so until the divesting is complete you keep telling everyone how good the market..eh?...
Only when the divestment is complete it is safe to tell your investor clients your news...then short the market...eh? ..Carl Icahn has always been a Media bad boy but at least he's not afraid to tell his story...even though that story implies he should not be trusted....but he's not a Investor Billionaire for nothing...and these people get a lot of trusting clients...so as an untrusting fellow I ask the question what is his motive in coming out in the media now with his correction opinion??
For these answers maybe we should go back to basics and remember the fables we listened to back in Primary School... I'm not kidding!!!!
Fables are so valuable, as they are written by very wise people (ie Aesop) who knew how people behaved under various situations after experiencing these life experiences and gaining that wisdom probably at some considerable cost to themselves and then applying their wisdom to print free of charge for generations to benefit from.
The whole idea about fables was/is:--We were all told these stories by our parents grandparents or at primary school so that when we grew up we would have this wisdom which was granted to us and benefit from it without having to live through life painfully to gain that wisdom which usually is expensive ....Wisdom granted to us when we were young kids was free but sadly we gave it no value and we either forget or chose to ignore it .....and so we repeatly do (reinvent the wheel) and follow the herd to earn that same wisdom that we chose to forget the expensive way.
The fable that been visible for sometime is the S&P500 rising without a decent correction that the disciplines keep signaling these last few years is The Boy who cried Wolf (Aesop No 210).
The fable that sprung to my mind when I read the Carl Icahn article was Chicken Little a chick that believes the sky is falling when an acorn falls on its head. The chick decides to tell the King and on its journey meets other animals (mostly other fowl) which join it in the quest, and along the way a fox invites them to its lair and eats them all.
Media noise (the acorn) causing investor paranoia (Chicken Little and the cumulative group) and I will let you guess who the Fox is :D
I can see why you would rather think of Bathhurst than the DOW
This will be an interesting week coming up--i think alot of the more in the know chartists believe we are in for a correction,but that doesnt mean the worst case scenario collapse.
I think some day it will have to come though (with all the debt etc) Just depends how long they can keep patching things up to put it off for longer.
Cheaper oil ATM for you V8 fans
Yes 1910 is a long way from 2020 when Jesse called the top a week or so ago.
We hope a crash never happens but if on occurs we should not be surprised ...signs have been there for a while.
Whether his is just a 'healthy' correction and down 15% to 20% or just the early stages of a 'crash' and down 50% or more who knows. Market sentiment is a funny thing.
NZ and Aust are not immune
Just need to manage what's thrown at us on an individual stock basis. Fundamentals mean squat all in these times so capital preservation is my objective and squiggly lines will help me in this.
Here is an elliot wave perspective on where we maybe are at. i think there is a significant top in at 2020 and we will see a deep and swift correction of a major third wave 1074 - 2020.
Even if its a shallow correction we could be bottoming around 1800 if it goes a deeper could be 1650. the correction is probably going to be of 3 significant waves i think wave A will bottom quite soon around 1850 then a B wave 30 % retracement rally back up before a major C wave down into its conclusion. As the waves evolve the potential bottom can be determined more accurately.
The bull is still alive though and once the correction concludes its off to new highs, a deeper correction should allow the bull market to run longer.
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