https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/06...ace-more-heat/
"A2 milk shares may face more heat"
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https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/06...ace-more-heat/
"A2 milk shares may face more heat"
Seems to be quite solid support forming around 600 mark, possibly driven by bargain hunters creeping in.
Here's a question i'ld be interested in what posters think.
In 5 years time, which would have been the better investment at todays prices & why ?
Lets say just for example $1million invested in ATM or Auckland investment property?
$1,000,000 property at 10% a year = $1,500,000 in 5 years. $1,000,000 ATM shares at $6.10c= 163,934 shares. The ATM shares would have to go up $3.05c to $9.15c to equal the $500,000 property gain, which could take any amount of years the way a2 is going at the moment. If things picked up and got on track again a2 could gain a few dollars in a number of years. Or you could divide the mill into 5 and invest in 5 different companies. Good night.
I'm struggling with the maths in the post above a little. The small error only reinforces the point being made though :)
property increase at 10% a year. I assume after five years that means an increase multiplier of 1.1 to the power of five, so 1.6105. Seems to check out.
year 0 = 1,000,000
year 1 = 1,000,000*1.1 = 1,100,000
year 2 = 1,100,000*1.1 = 1,210,000
year 3 = 1,210,000*1.1 = 1,331,000
year 4 = 1,331,000*1.1 = 1,464,100
year 5 = 1,464,100*1.1 = 1,610,510
so the ATM share price would have to increase even more than the stated 50%. The thing about the house though is that you might be able to buy it using leverage, so that gain could be made on an initial outlay of $100,000 if you can get a 10% lvr. Which is pretty much the maths that has been rewarding those using debt to buy houses, leverage is king, well, maybe heir to compounding interest, but close...
Yes you are right, I forgot to compound the yearly interest. So the new figure is a2 would have to go up $3.725c plus the $6.10c = $9.825c to match the investment property gain. Am talking basic, if you had a mill $ in the bank without getting a mortgage and bought a property or a2 shares. If mortgage interest rates happened to go up in the next 5 years it might slow the rising property market from 10% year to 7% year. Time will tell, and hope mortgage rates don't go up too much for the struggling. When I had a mortgage they were in the 12% to 15% range and always had at least 40% deposit years ago.
Interested you see/base figures on house price growth increasing at 10% year which seems to have been general consensus.
However, since govt policy changes, Westpac revised their forecast from +10% year to prices falling in 2022 & 23.
Added to new govt policies, coming inflation & rising mortgage rates, competition from Aust both salaries & housing, a steeply declining NZ birth rate which the market doesn't seem to be accounting for yet, & falling migration, not sure that 10% is still such a sure bet.
On other hand demand for protein expected to double by 2050, the NZ (A2 sourced) brand excellent compared to alternative industrialised factory herds fed on soy & antibiotics, & once distribution channels resume &/or alternatives & new markets established, could see ATM SP doubling in 5 years time. Would still not be much more than half it's peak.
Hope this not too off topic but sometimes comparing very diff investments $ for $ helps lend new perspective.
Things are up in a hurry here over past few days, 6.50 NZ and 6.05 AU as I type.
Attachment 12609
Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.
What do you see?
Attachment 12609
Any reason why you think ATM's fortunes should change? I guess they neither replaced the board nor the CEO and neither did they clean out their clogged up Daigou channel, didn't they? Same old, same old ...
Yes, if you are using the 50MA as a yardstick it's still a way to go at about $7. Short term though there are various resistances being broken, depending on whether the chart is log-scale or arithmetic.
A2M imo is better for charting due to the huge volumes. The A2M arithmetic scale chart had a 9/21 MA crossover a few days ago and 9/21 EMA crossover is very close now (traders will like that). It has also broken up through the long term downtrend line, question will be whether it holds.
I think for A2, the question at the moment is not about good news, the SP is already $1 up off it's low, it's whether there is any more bad news to come.
Attachment 12610
I got a clear break above the downtrend line which is probably causing the movement today.
If it closes above 641 today it would have broken through the upper channel line on a linear regression chart (linear regression point plus +0.3 STDEV)
Some say that's a buy as it will go on and form a new channel (upward) - others say its a sell as probably fall back into the prevailing trend
BP would stay still in a strong down trend and needs to break through 800 as first sign down trend is over (like break the ongoing lower highs and lower lows)