ARB-ArborGen Holdings Ltd

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Originally Posted by Maxtrade

Tend to agree with your comment that best option for shareholder would be US listing. It seems we are being left in the dark somewhat as to which is more likely, sale or potential US listing?

That said with either scenario any reason why SP seems to be struggling a bit to push up past 0.30 currently. Seems to be a bit of a bottleneck there. Wonder if those sellers don't think either of these scenarios are on the cards, because if they did wouldn't it make more sense to at least adjust their sell orders up closer towards 0.35.

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In the absence of news from ARB itself, the SP will stall or slip backwards. It's all a bit guesswork as to what the strategic direction of the company is at present and the market doesn't like uncertainty. I myself think there's more recommendations from the strategic review than what ARB have divulged so far. Happy to wait and see but holding off buying more.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I've been thinking about why ArborGen would sell its ANZ business. There has never been any discussion about divesting it in the past, and even though the prospects were low growth, it was a profitable subsidiary with genetic IP in radiata pine that might have been saleable elsewhere in the world. ARB was not at risk of violating debt covenants, or overly leveraged. There has been no apparent scramble to raise cash either. So why sell it? Only two reasons I can identify:

* To eliminate the need for OIO review if the company is bought by a foreign entity
* To refocus operations on growth markets in Brazil and the US in advance of a US listing

Either way, a catalyst for value realization seems at hand.

For anyone who thinks a US listing doesn't necessarily guarantee a re-rating, consider the EV company Rivian that just listed at an $80 billion valuation with exactly $0 in revenues. The US market is extremely frothy, and paying up for any asset with a hint of green. Great time for ArborGen to list.

Yesterday's announcement that the sale transactions have been satisfied looks interesting not speculating possible futures ! and the sale is now unconditional completion on the 30th !!

Yes, one step at a time and the 30th is another step, or, we’ve had the hop, now the step, next comes the jump.

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Originally Posted by biker

Yes, one step at a time and the 30th is another step, or, we’ve had the hop, now the step, next comes the jump.

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I know jeez I am gutted I sold out 60 % a bit ago what a big mistake ! Ah well you live & learn from those mistakes

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Originally Posted by ralph

Yesterday's announcement that the sale transactions have been satisfied looks interesting not speculating possible futures ! and the sale is now unconditional completion on the 30th !!

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Any idea why such large sell volumes sitting at 0.27. Wouldn't it make more sense to hold and sell after the sale?

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Originally Posted by Maxtrade

Any idea why such large sell volumes sitting at 0.27. Wouldn't it make more sense to hold and sell after the sale?

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Strange! as it went straight to 0.27 this morning and stayed there ,it will all come out in the wash

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Originally Posted by ralph

Strange! as it went straight to 0.27 this morning and stayed there ,it will all come out in the wash

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You were saying you regretted selling out 60% recently. Wouldn't the volume sitting at 0.27 currently be sufficient to buy back in whatever amount you sold. Or was it an amount larger than that. Could top up at least taking advantage of the shares available at that price currently. That is of course if you are expecting the sale and potential course US listing to give the next run up on SP?

No Maxtrade is the answer ,this was still is a multibagger for me ,and funds now invested elsewhere now which coincidently was not a good move but in the future should be .
You are correct though with this potential us listing it could go big time and probably will & 27 cents would be a bargain now if only !!

I'm with Thistle and Hunter and reckon there's plenty of upside compared to downside from here, especially when you model out the effects of increasing MCP supply that's now coming into inventory. The intentions of the ANZ sale seems like a clear focus on the USA and a listing there to me, which is a nice bonus.

It's a bit messy but I've put my thesis into a write up which may be of interest for those hopeful ARB followers: https://fundamentalgoob.com/2021/11/...rgen-holdings/

I've now joined those hopeful holders but always happy to hear why I might be wrong.