I dont really know now... so am closing and taking the +80 which was a good reward for risking 18.
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I dont really know now... so am closing and taking the +80 which was a good reward for risking 18.
I'd call 80 pips a good ST trade
starting to look like theres more for the taking now. if it breaks .6315 I will probably be convinced to continue shorting.
aand I did +50 now
although it seems the Kiwi is tracking the Eur and could of course be dragged up when that continues its climb, my reasoning is that the Kiwi will get punished a lot harder in any corrections.
altho fundamentally the kiwi has some major issues... this upside tick happening now (5:30 am) makes me wonder if we might head back up to 66-67 which would complete some sort of bearish gartley. i.e we are at C now.
+145 :D
Hi All (or anyone);)
Been short the Kiwi for a week now, started selling at .6212
Looking for around .57
Any other views
Cheers
slam
Hi Slam
Looks a bit like a possible H & S (going back to late 2003).
Bit scary for the NZD if this is the case.
Expect a bit more fall and then perhaps a test of the H & S line.
Regards to all
- arco in QLD - blue skies and 23 C
Hi arco
Thanks for the reply.
Stopped out of FOMC bounce.
Still picked up a nice load of pips:)
If H&S plays out, we are back to 71[:0], is that correct?
Was on Sunshine Coast a few weeks back, wish I was still there.
Have a good one
Cheers
Slam
yeh thats what I was thinking when I looked at it, but I didnt have the guts to say it heheh.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by slam
If H&S plays out, we are back to 71[:0], is that correct?
6430 - 5930 = 500
5930 + (.68 x500) = 6270
time for Kiwi to reverse soon?
Hi Pete
Hope so, looking to reset longs on AUD/NZD and shorts on NZD.
Looking a bit strong atm
Wait for some more signals me thinks
Cheers
Slam
lota volatility over past 24, CPI in US suggests another rate hike but fedspeak suggests a pause in august.
I'm back in the game now but havnt pulled the trigger yet -two possible trades i was considering made money... -_-
looking on the longside going into next week.
crazy sh*t - I'm inadvertantly long (for real not demo) from a forgotten stop that got triggered
I'm not completely au fait with this new CMC software, if I'm not careful I'll be learning the hard way. but kiwi has been looking strong these last few days.... doesnt seem to go down when USD climbs but goes up when Eur does. someone was mentioning more Uridashis the other night on global view forum...
Hi Peat
this is my first post on this forum,it is a great site. checked out cmc web site the other day,no commission and low bid/ask spread has to be good. kiwi currently.6192
cheers rod
I'm not finding the software very good tho on a number of fronts... may review later after I talk to them about it first and will post in another thread.
hi Peat,
will look forward to the review! today looking to short the flightless bird @.6250 with stop @.6280
have gone long the euro 1.2627
yeh in my demo system i have a kiwi short from .6252 as per my previously posted thinking but I've screwed it all up in real life duh, all bailed now tho. One guy on global-view forum used to say the kiwi isnt a good day trade.... tend to agree.
my order hasnt been filled yet and yeh from my limited experince the kiwi doesnt always seem to range trade well at times,it would be interesting to know how many pips it does average per day, i remember somewhere reading the Euro does 90 pips
from my experience the CMC platform is crap. Oanda has the best platform, very visual and nice features such as the moveable lines for tp/sl.
well first trade went OK not great but ac bal up to 2100 from 2000. Put myself on probation from real trading - only been game trading for the past 6 months, so easy does it.
focusing on the kiwi, will be researching on sun etc so will post some links and commentry then
EUR/USD is good for trading.
Well it's going to be an active week for NZDUSD:
NBNZ Business Confidence
Trade Balance
RBNZ rate review
building permits and money supply
on the technicals it looks to be maintaining the upward trend, hasn't broken the trendline yet,
i'm approaching this week with a slight bullish bias, looking for a little more rangebound activity, expect tough talk from bollard at the rate review re 4% inflation, not sure what to make of the other event risk though.
any thoughts?
[quote]quote:23 Jul 2006 22:00 GMT
=CENTRAL BANK WATCH: RBNZ To Stand Pat, May Delay Easing
(This story first ran Friday)
By Shri Navaratnam
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may delay the start of an easing cycle well into 2007 as a surge in oil prices threatens to keep inflation high, despite a slowdown in economic growth.
Economists expect the central bank at a regular policy review next week will maintain short-term interest rates at a high level. Some say there remains a possibility of a rise in rates if an increase in domestic gasoline prices ripples out and boosts prices throughout the economy.
For Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard, the dilemma is similar to that faced by other central banks. Rising oil prices are encouraging tighter policy but at the same time threaten to slow growth.
The RBNZ lifted interest rates nine times and by a total of 2.25 percentage points between January 2004 and December 2005 to cool pricing pressures driven by red-hot economic growth. Even though growth has now peaked, the central bank is keeping policy tight due to the oil-led inflation surge.
Data issued this week showed that the pace of consumer price increases galloped to a 16-year peak in the second quarter. The CPI rose 4.0% from a year earlier, well above the central bank's 1%-3% tolerance range.
Following the data, financial market participants quickly priced into short-term bank bill futures a 50% chance of a rate hike by the end of this year. That chance, according to bill futures prices, has since fallen back to 25%.
All 13 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the central bank to keep the Official Cash Rate at its current eight-year peak of 7.25% at its six-weekly policy review July 27.
Looking ahead, they ascribe a 15% chance of a rate hike occurring over the next six months, up from 5% just before the latest inflation numbers.
As to when the central bank can start to reduce interest rates, a majority expect the easing cycle to start in March 2007, or later. Previously, they had expected a policy easing in early 2007.
"The RBNZ is in no position to ease interest rates at present, as it guards against the possibility that current high headline inflation will spill over into wage and price setting behavior," said Anthony Byett, chief economist at ASB Bank.
"By the same token, a higher OCR seems unnecessary (in July)...because the RBNZ is also trying to manage a gradual slowdown in New Zealand growth over 2006, assisted by higher global interest rates," Byett said.
Risks Of Second-Round Effects
New Zealand's economy started to slow from the second half of 2005 after over five years of robust growth, which was fueled by a surge in Asian immigrants, a housing boom and a strong labor market.
Production-based gross domestic product in the three months ended March 31 grew 0.7% from the fourth quarter following a 0.1% contraction in the quarter ended December.
Treasury forecasts annual growth will slip to 1% in the 12-months ended March 2007, from 2.2% a year earlier.
But to the consternation of the Reserve Bank, inflation pressures have remained persistent, underpinned by resilient housing and labor markets, and record world oil prices.
Gasoline prices in New Zealand have rose by 32.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier, which was the biggest rise in 21 years.
That leaves economists and analysts focused on Bollard's statement, which will accompany the policy decision next week.
"We think that the focus in the statement will again be on the avoidance of second-round impacts on wages, prices and inflation expectations that might stem from the current period of high headline inflation," said Darren Gibbs, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.
In June, Bollard highlighted his concern that higher inflation could become entrenched and issued a subtl
zyreon agree with your comments regard kiwi, personally would like to see close or sustained move above .6280 before committing to range trade upward trend,your comment slight bullish bias about sums it up for me too
short the flightless bird .6245,also the euro
so far so good, taking a punt on the trade figures?
from the looks of new reports on global lvl they think its gunna be improved, but all the local reports forecaste it to be slightly worse... maybe i've misread things but hey we'll see.
Though even if it does tank on the release it will probably be somewhat underpinned by the RBNZ tomorrow so i'm thinking keep my shorts on and then if it falls take profits and maybe reverse once it settles down.
well lucky i took half my position off before the figures
Hi Zyreon
imho think daily and weekly charts are bearish until it breaks .6280 and then.6450. so after reading Arcos {read it for free} will be bearish in a bear market and bullish in a bull market.
I had a punt on trade figures as well and had a
tight stop so no damage done.
Well, its looks like the R shoulder of the H&S may still be forming, and who knows, 6560-6590 could even be possible, but at that point Mr Gann could put up some strong resistance.
Anyway for now, check out the nice looking Flag on the 15m.
arco in QLD
Have we seen a shorterm floor for the NZD?
looks like it.
market doesn't expect any more hikes from FOMC, and market also pricing in small chance of RBNZ hiking rates again... and not lowering for a long time. And with no evidence of a hard landing any time soon in NZ the kiwi looks fairly well underpinned
(which is rather irritating given that i bought a put a few weeks back)
http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9176/noname1nf6.jpgwas wondering if anybody could comment on whether this is a valid gartley or not, chart is of NZ/US and if so probable outcome
cheers rod
cheers roddy
Hi Roddy
This is not a valid pattern because Point C on a Gartley or Butterfly cannot be lower than point A.
However try starting with X at your point B, and see what you come up with........ :)
Regards
arco in QLD
http://img326.imageshack.us/img326/5553/noname4ns0.jpg
Hi Arco
thankyou for your reply!
This is what i have come up with, if Point B happens and we see a reversal to lower levels then the third leg will start to form? At
.6560-.6570 point B is a 50% Fib retrace level of .72-.5930 level, is also a previous support level possibly now becoming resistance
At this early stage cannot be sure that C or D will form,but there is quite good proability that the Kiwi will head lower from here!
Cheers
Roddy
Hi Roddy
X - Correct
A - Correct
Now convert your B into D and see if you can
find a Butterfly.
Regards - arco
http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/9361/noname1xb8.jpg
Hi Arco
Its quite beautiful,i should of coloured it purple or something!
Quetion- to have an ideal butterfly/Gartley reversal setup should D be extended to the 161.8 level or is that not a concern?
Cheers
roddy
Hi Roddy
Well done, I can see you will soon become an
experienced Butterfly spotter. :)
Butterfly set-ups often complete btw 127-162, so
thats where to generally start looking for other
clues that may confirm a possible reversal.
Good netting
arco
Roddy/Arco,
It's currently toying with the 127.2% fib of XA, but the formation itself is not particularly harmonic, CD having well exceeded AB (which was around 6490, a 138.2% as well btw)and BC was only 38.2%
FWIW, I like to look for clusters of resistance, drawn as extensions of previous retracements, as multiple fibs are more powerful.....
0.6620 area is a 138.2% and a 2.618% cluster zone, whilst the 0.6735 area holds a 1.618% and a 4.25% cluster, using the XA leg, as well as the previous two significant retracements BC and the small retracement within CD.
Interestingly, a bearish '3 drives' formation looked on for a while, but this was blown away late last week on the break of 0.6500.
So for what its worth, my pick is not to stand in the path of the freight train just yet, assuming it can conquer this 127.2% level. The next layers often act as magnets as well....
regards
Xerof
Having said that, I recall Arco mentioned that Major Gann and his merry men could be lurking around this 60/90 area - any word from the frontline Arco?
Corporal Xerof
Hello Xerof
Good to see you posting again.
Agree, the Butterfly is not perfect in its harmonics, however the previous Bullish models* harmonics were also in disarray, so it's probably worth keeping an open mind with any odd shapes for their possible potential. IMHO the key is to be aware of their exsistance, but only act once other factors fall into place.
FYI Gann is still stationed at the figures mentioned, so that is one additional point to consider.
*That particular formation has given around 630 pips currently, so as I say I never totally discount imperfect patterns.
GTA - arco.