Thanks Snoopy that sum's it up very nicely.
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Thanks Snoopy that sum's it up very nicely.
Quite right PSE. It was the acronyms (mostly) that I replaced in rewritten version of Jantars post. Mind you, to those not in the industry both acronyms and jargon can be equally baffling!
Jantar´s example dispelled the myth that low wholesale pòwer prices are always bad for Genesis. That is something that investors in Genesis should take note of. The problem is, for every ´gaming strategy´there is always a counter strategy. I wonder what would have happened in Jantars example if the likes of Meridian had not reduced their power prices? Sure Meridian may have lost income by spilling water. But they might also have hung their competitor Genesis out to dry at the same time? IOW caue just enough pain for Genesis to ensure they didn´t start generating gas fired power at a loss to ´game the system´again?Quote:
I think Jantar refers to particular situation, not a guarantee that GNE can always profit from low wholesale prices.
There are traders on all sides working the angles right.
SNOOPY
Correct. For every strategy there is a counter. That is why the first, and default, offer is one that protects a company's position irrespective of where wholesale prices may end up. Changes in offer strategy from that default position should enhance earnings without placing any extra risk to that base position.
In my example, if another player positioned themselves to hold prices up, then Genesis would have been dispatched to their origional offer position and been very happy.
The momentum seems to be going in the wrong direction for this share--I could be wrong but Ive decided to protect my diminishing profits and bow out for now--It should have been earlier but a combination of waiting for the divi and then an off market transfer delayed things.
This strategy has worked better for me than my earlier habits so decided to stick to it.
Also had an issue with them as our provider which seemed a bit of an omen.--Best of luck to all
Following that website MAC provided," WITS", Haywards 30min intervals went from $21.96 to $224.98 in 6 hours. Would this be in error?????
http://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/com...in_prices.main
No this is not an error, Sometimes there may not be enough power offered in to supply the power required to the national grid. This may be due to low lake levels, Generator maintenance or sudden outage (loss due to breakdown or fault). The spot price will go up (sometimes into the thousands of dollars in extreme circumstances) this will trigger the next level of generation to come on line. These peaks are usually short term. Another reason the $244 1/2 hr offer is there could be a high load time (5pm - 7pm) and generating stations making the most of the peak by offering in their power at a higher price for that period.
Note that the price at Benmore has remained low. That is because one of the Cook Strait cables is out of service today for maintenance, and the remaining cable cannot carry all the South Island power. This results in a price separation between the Islands, effectively telling the market that more North Island generation is needed and less South Island generation. Unfortunately, the downfall of the half hourly nodal price system we use in NZ does not recognise the fact that generation plant cannot be started and stopped that quickly.
Not correct, the half hour market offer fully include generation plant ramp rates, so the price you see is the lowest possible clearing price that solves for all factors including offers, transmission, reserves, and plant ramp rates. As an aside much of NZs thermal plant, including Stratford peaker, McKee, Huntly 6 and whirinaki do have reasonably quick ramp rates. Hydro of course is near instant in most cases.
Huh? What part of my post is not correct?
HVDC Pole 2 is out of service today from 07:00 (when I finished my shift) to 16:00. All North Island fast start plant except Whirinaki was already running prior to the outage. Otahuhu and Stratford CCGTs were not running, not offered, and would take days to get going.