Took my first nible (since the crash) today at close, can't wait till the next dividend :)
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Took my first nible (since the crash) today at close, can't wait till the next dividend :)
Unfortunately those charts are slightly misleading as they rescale the earlier prices by 5x but don't factor in the changes in issued capital between the before and after scenarios. Noting that AIR now has slighly over 1b shares on issue, the chart makes it look like they were a $12b+ market cap company. They weren't.
Plus it doesn't take into account all the dividends paid over the years
Not sure if it’s still true after a few years of super profits but the airline industry has net lost money since its inception. I wonder if it will continue to do so or has it structurally changed recently.
Maybe not in the next year, but no reason to expect they cannot get back within a year to 18 months to similar results and dividends from 2014 to 2019 of 20 to 22 cents. At 1.54 SP at close today that would be 14% +/- dividend yield plus highly probable SP resurgence in the 2.70 area. Looks like a good move to me. :t_up:
Will they need to raise capital between now and 12 to 18 months though? That is the big question and I am interested to hear from anyone that has done some sums.
From Air NZ's dividend page Air NZ has paid $2.15 in dividends since 2005. Air NZ had 1.05b shares on issue in 2007 (the earliest AR on their website) which has increased to 1.12b by 2020. Air NZ has therefore paid out about $2.3b in dividends over the last 15 years. The government did do a bailout of $885m but in terms of value creation, dividends paid have exceeded this several times over.
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/dividend-history
Interim Final Special Total
2005 2.5 2.5 5
2006 2.5 2.5 5
2007 3 5 10 18
2008 5 3.5 8.5
2009 3 3.5 6.5
2010 3 4 7
2011 3 2.5 5.5
2012 2 3.5 5.5
2013 3 5 8
2014 4.5 5.5 10 20
2015 6.5 9.5 16
2016 10 10 25 45
2017 10 11 21
2018 11 11 22
2019 11 11 22
Total 80 90 45 215
Does AIR have ability to cancel airpoints dollars as way of delivering company balance sheet credit... just a thought in drastic times
The Govt's real dividend is they are partners in the debauchery with all the overpaid staff in that they collect PAYE from all their grossly excessive salaries before they even get them so actually the lead and by far the biggest pig at the trough is the Govt itself ! I estimate they would be collecting over $300m in PAYE every year so this is the real reason they won't let the airline fail, lets not pretend its any other reason. Then there's the tax from the company itself and of course the GST from all domestic travel and last, and actually least of all is their dividends....the airline is an absolute goldmine for the Govt !
Yes James108, I believe they will needs to raise capital within the next 12-18 months.
History suggests after the GFC the company only made an average of 5.9 cps for the next 4 years so I expect an L shaped recovery and AIR not being capable of paying the level of dividends previously paid for ~ 5 years and then on perhaps double the number of shares currently on issue after the capital raise so a reasonable expectation for decent dividend paying might be low single digits for a few years and then ramping up to perhaps 10 cps after that...until inevitably as the cycle rolls around again, they hit their next crisis and shareholders cough up another billion or two to keep the staff in the luxury and comfort they've come to expect.