National will win Ilam
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National will win Ilam
They are miles ahead. Why would the electorate wake up one morning and say 'I think we'll all vote TOP!'
Obviously the TOP fans are keen, but why should anyone else buy in?
Plus nobody knows who Raf Manji would go with, he may annoint Labour. Too much of an unknown really.
Now I am confused. You complained only yesterday that its a problem of the NZ MMP system that parties form camps already prior to the election, and today you complain that Manji didn't join in?
I do hope he would go with whoever he is able to better implement TOPS's program ...
What I said is that in Germany they operate MMP differently, and I pointed out what they do differently.
Centre-right voters will not vote for TOP if they think there is a chance Manji will go into a coalition with Labour. I don't think there is anything illogical or controversial in saying that.
I'll reiterate my points again:
1/ Manji is a career politician from the UK. He is based in Christchurch and has been a Christchurch City Councillor.
2/ One of TOP's key policy planks is 'The Christchurch Plan', a plan to inject $1 Billion of taxpayer funds into Christchurch city.
3/ 'The Ilam electorate in Christchurch is swinging back towards National, according the results of the latest Taxpayers' Union - Curia poll.
The latest poll found that 33 percent of respondents would be likely to vote for National candidate Hamish Campbell, while 15 percent favoured Labour's incumbent Sarah Pallett. Pallett came in just ahead of The Opportunities Party (TOP) leader Raf Manji, who 14 percent of respondents chose.'
4/ The latest national political poll from Newshub-Reid Research (25/09/2023) found that TOP has approx 1.9% support.
5/ A recent OneNews poll found that 80% of respondents want to know prior to the election who parties will & won't work worth.
These are the facts. They may be unpalatable to TOP supporters but I cannot help that.
You sound desperate ... actually so desperate that you start mixing facts with fiction - and some of your facts are absolutely irrelevant.
What is the relevance that Manji is from the UK? All of us (either we or our forebears) come from somewhere else - so, why are you repeating that ad nauseam. Are you a xenophobe? Do you hate Brits?
Personally - while the British have as well their fair share of idiots, so has any other people. So - again, what is your point?
And yes, he has been a Christchurch City councilor. Which means he has experience in political roles. Why is this a negative? Or do you mean you only support politicians who served in your local rabbit hole (wherever this might be)?
You are repeating like a broken disc that he is a career politician. Wrong. He started his career as a banker and had serveal roles internationally as investment banker ... btw - did you hold that against John Key as well (having been an investment banker), or is this just because you are afraid TOP might make it?
Not too interested in your local polls. Polls (particularly local polls) are a snapshot of a very small sample with a huge error of margin. If that's what counts, why do we have elections anyway? Just have a poll and go on with governing, shall we?
Look, it is fine with me if you prefer to vote for one of the parties which brought us down into the mess we are. That's democracy, and good luck with that. It is fine as well if you disagree with some of TOP's proposed policies - this is democracy as well. However - your desperate clutching for straws to find something negative about TOP starts to become a bit tiresome, particularly if you bring up issues which are neither relevant nor new - and some are not even true.
I'm not 'clutching for straws', I'm presenting a number of facts. If Manji wanted to continue his career as a lawyer he would have done so. The fact that he is taking on political roles indicates he sees himself as a politician. So there is nothing special or unique about Manji in that respect, he is 'another politician'. He didn't found the TOP party, and I have no doubt that if he wasn't able to make headway with entering the TOP hierachy then he would have lobbed up at some other NZ political party. As a Councillor, Manji was a close ally of the left-wing mayor Lianne Daziel, and this is just one more thing that will not endear him to centre-right voters. The Ilam poll numbers are no surprise when you really think about it.
I don't give a hoot who you vote for. I am not seeking to influence you in the slightest. The election won't be decided by one person's vote. I'm collated together some points, and others can determine if they are valid or not. You've chosen to respond angrily.
You can dismiss the polls if you like, but this close to an election I think on the night these numbers will play out pretty close to where they are now. That will be disappointing for TOP fans but such is life, there is very little point in burying ones head in the sand and pretending that Manji will romp home in Ilam and TOP will get over the threshold in the party vote.
If TOP 'made it' it would certainly be an interesting development, but not something I'm 'afraid of'. They seem to appeal to younger voters so would probably be taking votes off Labour and the Greens. That's not a bad thing in my book. I have no axe to grind with 'TOP', I just don't look at them through rose-tinted glasses & I'm 85% sure they won't be going into Parliament this election. Maybe one day their time will come.
I don't think anyone who supports TOP, realistically expects them to be in Parliament this year. But maybe now is the time to stand up and make a statement, if nothing else. My vote is worth nothing right now. National doesn't need it, and I'm not interested in giving it to Labour, ACT, or the Greens. But I might just decide to give it to TOP. The more votes they get this time round, the more attention is drawn to the party. People start noticing when a minor party starts picking up votes. The more votes a party gets, the more the media pricks up their ears too. TOP is probably unlikely to gain a seat this election, but they have to start somewhere. I am extremely disillusioned with the political landscape in this country, and I have zero confidence that anything of any real significance will change or improve, over the next three years. My vote may be a "wasted" vote in your opinion, but at least it won't be a vote for a party that doesn't meet my needs or expectations, or a party that doesn't match my personal values.
The problem is that I don't think this country could handle another Labour/Greens/Te Pati government in power. Even if you don't like National or Act, surely you could make the argument that it is the lesser of the two evils and help ensure Labour/Greens/Te Pati don't get into power by giving National or Act your vote.
Just a thought.
I don't believe for one minute that Labour/Greens/Te Pati, will be our government. National and ACT (and possibly Winston) are going to win the election.
Having said that, while I respect your suggestion, it is precisely what is pissing me off this time round. I don't want to vote for a party that is "the lesser of two evils." I want to vote for a party who has philosophies, values, and policies I align with. A party that makes me feel positive about NZ's (and my own) future. A party that thinks outside the square, and understands that we can't just keep doing what we have always done, because it is not working!
I agree that National and Act probably going to get in, but I don't think that its necessarily a given. Just to prove a point you could make an easy 15-20% return by betting on National winning. But thats obviously not a free lunch - betting markets are pricing in a fair probability National not being sworn in.
It may piss you off but that's just the nature of democracy, it is never going to be the most efficient way of doing things but it is a hell of alot better than other systems of forming government.